First of all, I’m glad too see somebody on the anti-abortion side of the debate expressing their opinion in a calm and intelligent manner. And I’m glad that you’re ignoringthose who merely want to transform this thread into another flame war.
Right, now here goes. The crux of your argument is that the modern societies will die out if not enough births occur to achieve replacement rate. You’ve argued for, or at least suggested, two mechanisms that could hurt societies. First is that as the population ages, we get a smaller and smaller ratio of people working to retirees living at their expense. The second that you suggested is that as wealthy, modernized societies shrink in population size while the world’s poorer countries continue to grow, the modern societies will simply be overwhelmed.
Now the idea that the aging of the modern world, particularly Japan and some countries in Europe, is leading towards destruction has been a popular one in recent years, popular even among intelligent people. But I don’t go for it. One must realize that all of history is littered with failed predictions of imminent disaster. The changing age demographics will not collapse modern countries, only change them. One of the huge advantages of a society based on individual freedom is that it is remarkably open to change. So fifty years from now, retirement ages may go up, medical care systems and pension systems may be rearranged or eliminated, or society may change in ways that we can’t even imagine know. But people will find some way to cope. They always do.
Then there’s the threat of the undeveloped world population growing so large that it overwhelms the developed world. But consider, what exactly is the threat? We in the developed world are already massively outnumbered, and yet we’re not in any danger. Israel has survived for almost sixty years despite being survived and outnumbered by third-world enemies. In the end, however, the best response is to point out that if we are worried about a threat from the third world, the best defense is to let third world countries modernize at which point their populations, too, would presumably start to level off.
In any case, there is one big issue in your OP that I need to address, namely that you’ve mistaken the reason why women in modern societies have fewer children now than they did in the past. Why do they? Because of economic reasons and social pressures? The idea that women didn’t work outside the home until the 70’s is largely a myth; this excellent book covers it quite well. And consider whether it’s really true that a typical family in modern America needs two incomes to survive. Living off a single middle-lcass income is quite possible. It means a lower standard of living, but it would hardly reduce a family to squalor. The majority of women work because that’s what they choose to do.
Look at it this way. A hundred years ago, or even as recently as fifty years ago, society presented no choice of work for women. The options available to them were dead-end jobs (teachers, nurses, secretaries etc…), while the more fulfilling careers were carefully kept off limits, available only to men. So as far as finding a real purpose in life, a way to feel that they’d made an important contribution to the world, women had few options besides having children. Now that’s changed. Some women decide that the best use of their life is still to have children and stay at home to raise them, and I support that. And other women instead pursue meaning in life in the fields that were formerly reserved only for men, and I support that as well.
One last paragraph, and then I’ll quit, I promise. This one is about social realities in America. Suppose we outlawed abortion. What would happen? Rich women would still get abortions when they wanted anyway, because the rich always get what they want. Most middle class women would probably also have access to abortion, although in more dangerous and unhealthy circumstances than what they currently have; our society is pretty good at serving the middle class. It’s only the poor women who would be prevented from having abortions. So now we have hundreds of thousands more poor children born every year, with few new middle- or upper-class children. Now who’s going to raise these children? Who will pay for them? Who will educate them? Who will keep them off the streets? When they reach voting age, what will they demand from politicians? What overall effect on society will they have?
