# ACLU says that 50% of Covid-19 deaths are from nursing homes and other group homes **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [July 9, 2020, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887 "2020-07-09T23:26:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Zyada](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zyada/32/3028_2.png) [@Zyada](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zyada)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2020, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/1 "2020-07-09T23:26:32Z")
> **[COVID-19 Deaths in Nursing Homes are Not Unavoidable — They are the Result of...](https://www.aclu.org/news/disability-rights/covid-19-deaths-in-nursing-homes-are-not-unavoidable-they-are-the-result-of-deadly-discrimination)** > > We as a society must reckon with our relentless marginalization and de-prioritization of people with disabilities and the people who support them. This plays into a thought that has been bouncing around in my head. The majority of these group homes are nursing homes, and thus elderly. I’m thinking that the perception that this is mostly a problem for the elderly, and not as big a problem for younger people may just be incorrect - that the statistics showing that it is mostly elderly is badly skewed by the fact that the elderly are far more likely to be in a situation where they are more likely to be exposed to it. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2020, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/2 "2020-07-10T02:20:06Z")
The fact that elderly people are conveniently locked up together no doubt puts their fatality numbers higher. However, if you get sent to a hospital and you’re elderly, you’re more likely to die. A test of your basic idea might be to look up whether there is a significantly higher fatality rate amongst prisoners. Also locked up, same staff serving everyone, communal eating areas. I don’t remember hearing that to be true but haven’t looked into it. ---
**Author:** ![Zyada](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zyada/32/3028_2.png) [@Zyada](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zyada)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2020, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/3 "2020-07-10T14:57:31Z")
Here’s a report on Covid-19 in prisons: > **[A State-By-State Look at 15 Months of Coronavirus in Prisons](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/05/01/a-state-by-state-look-at-coronavirus-in-prisons)** > > The Marshall Project and The Associated Press collected data on COVID-19 infections in state and federal prisons every week. See how the virus affected correctional facilities near you. As of 7-9, there were at least 651 deaths due to covid-19. I don’t know how that stacks up re: % of people in prison ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2020, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/4 "2020-07-10T15:12:17Z")
There’s about 1.5M people in state/federal prisons. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/5 "2020-07-10T15:19:34Z")
Wanted to add: But that is not quite the way to look at it unless you look up the total population in nursing homes to compare it to. 650 total sure looks low, though. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/6 "2020-07-10T18:03:42Z")
Lansing Correctional Facility (Kansas) had a major outbreak back in April into May: 96 staff and 850 inmates tested positive. That’s close to half of the inmate population (capacity is 2432, but they’ve been running closer to 1700 to 1900 residents recently, with yesterday’s census at 1683). Of those, two staff and four inmates died. Of the four inmates, all were over the age of 50, including at least two over 60. Only about a quarter of Lansing’s inmates are over 50 (428 of 1683, currently). The two staff members were men aged 59 and 61, although I don’t know the total number or demographics of the staff there. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/7 "2020-07-10T18:35:52Z")
About 1.3 million nursing home residents [per the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/nursing-home-care.htm) (albeit 2015 numbers quoted). Yeah that under 700 deaths related to COVID-19 in prisons seems small. Nursing homes though are a higher risk for exposure environment than prisons are. More close (within 6 feet for more than 15 minutes) contact with staff coming in from the outside in nursing homes than in prisons, and more staff that have that close contact with a much larger number of individuals. I’d suspect that there are both many more nursing home residents becoming infected (due to exposures that hopefully will be prevented in the future by improved practices) and of course a much higher death rate per infection . At 57K that’s roughly 4% of the prison population with confirmed infections. Five times as much the general U.S. population. Fewer missed cases (estimates are true cases in the country have been over ten times the number of confirmed) or more infections? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/8 "2020-07-11T23:16:40Z")
> [@Zyada](#): > > This plays into a thought that has been bouncing around in my head. The majority of these group homes are nursing homes, and thus elderly. > > I’m thinking that the perception that this is mostly a problem for the elderly, and not as big a problem for younger people may just be incorrect - that the statistics showing that it is mostly elderly is badly skewed by the fact that the elderly are far more likely to be in a situation where they are more likely to be exposed to it. The best guess is that only about half of Covid-19 deaths have been reported. Ones that happen in an elderly home are more likely to be reported since it will be a major outbreak. But, it’s probably the case that the unreported deaths are also, in majority, the elderly. At 90 years old, you’re still more likely to survive getting Covid-19 than you are to die (not to say that you should try it out). But, if you’re merely suffering an underlying illness like diabetes, your odds of dying are still much lower than if you were old. Age causes you to get secondary/underlying conditions. It’s the combo of the two - age and underlying illness - that really puts you at risk. And, as said, those tend to come together, hand in hand. The best metric for whether you’re going to die from Covid-19 is how close you were to death, minus Covid-19. Generally, that’s the elderly. But probably you could look at most of the younger patients who would be at high risk and, visually, be able to determine that they’re at risk - because they’ve had their heads go bald from chemo, they’re coughing and living on the streets, etc. I’d venture to guess that the next highest locations of death, after elderly facilities are hospitals and homeless shelters. The risk to your average person of death by Covid-19 are, despite Trump saying it, no worse than a normal flu. ---
**Author:** ![raspberry\_hunter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@raspberry\_hunter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raspberry_hunter)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2020, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/9 "2020-07-14T18:23:39Z")
Lompoc Federal Prison has 1,526 total inmates. Of these, 998 (!) tested positive for covid-19. 3 have died. So yeah, a much smaller percentage than nursing homes have been reporting. Breakdown by age of those who tested positive in this prison: 18-29 134 30-49 530 50-69 302 70+ 32 [https://publichealthsbc.org/status-reports/](https://publichealthsbc.org/status-reports/) ---
**Author:** ![Zyada](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zyada/32/3028_2.png) [@Zyada](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zyada)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2020, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/10 "2020-07-14T20:19:10Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The best guess is that only about half of Covid-19 deaths have been reported. Ones that happen in an elderly home are more likely to be reported since it will be a major outbreak. Ummm, I think that’s probably not true: > **[After Anonymous Tip, 17 Bodies Found at Nursing Home Hit by Virus (Published...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-nj-andover-nursing-home-deaths.html)** > > There have been 68 recent deaths of residents and nurses from the facility in a small New Jersey town. > **[Federal data suggests Indiana is undercounting COVID-19 nursing home deaths](https://www.indystar.com/story/news/investigations/2020/06/04/indiana-appears-undercounting-coronavirus-nursing-home-deaths/3137282001/)** > > Indiana plans to test all nursing home staff amid revelations of eight employee deaths. the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicare Services. > **[Harlem nursing home faces state fines for hiding coronavirus casualties](https://www.nydailynews.com/2020/05/31/harlem-nursing-home-faces-state-fines-for-hiding-coronavirus-casualties/)** > > A Harlem nursing home — caught loading up the corpses of dozens of coronavirus patients — is being fined by the state for underreporting the number of dead and failing to protect its re… Another story from the ACLU: > **[How Nursing Homes Got Away With Hiding Bodies During the COVID-19 Outbreak |...](https://www.aclu.org/news/disability-rights/how-nursing-homes-got-away-with-hiding-bodies-during-the-covid-19-outbreak)** > > Months after declaring COVID-19 a national emergency, HHS still doesn’t collect essential data on deaths and infections in nursing homes and other congregate settings for people with disabilities. Which notes that Residents of these congregate facilities are dying from COVID-19 at **8.6 times the rate** of the overall 75+ population. So, no, it’s not just because they’re old, and if anything, the nursing home deaths are probably getting under-reported. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2020, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/11 "2020-07-14T20:52:06Z")
> [@Zyada](#): > > So, no, it’s not just because they’re old, and if anything, the nursing home deaths are probably getting under-reported. Nursing home residents are probably more likely to be sicker than their contemporaries who are still in the community, and I’d wonder if more of them have living wills or DNR orders or have otherwise expressed “no extraordinary measures” or “palliative care only.” (Also note that your Indiana link is talking about discrepancies between reported federal and state numbers, rather than unreported deaths.) ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2020, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aclu-says-that-50-of-covid-19-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes-and-other-group-homes/914887/12 "2020-07-15T19:38:23Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The risk to your average person of death by Covid-19 are, despite Trump saying it, no worse than a normal flu. That statement is highly misleading, because even if we assume that the chance of death given COVID infection is roughly equal to the chance of death given a flu, MANY more people will become infected with Coronavirus than would get the flu. So the risk to your average person is much higher from Coronavirus even if, once the average person catches either the flu or COVID, the risk is equal.