# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/1 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")
Here it is, with the permission of **adaher** – the place to discuss any and all of his 2016 election predictions! This OP will be my first attempt to list all of his predictions for the election cycle that I can find – feel free to point out any I missed. Also feel free to comment on and discuss his predictions, and hopefully he will add more predictions through the cycle. Much fun will be had by all (except for, come voting day 2016, **adaher** – just kidding!). These will be listed as I find them, not necessarily in order. [Here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18570632&postcount=44) is a correct prediction – Perry is the first Republican to drop out. Way to go **adaher**! [This post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb//showpost.php?p=18610591&postcount=422) sums up two predictions – that Sanders will win NH in the Democratic primary and that Sanders will not be allowed to win if Clinton falters. [Here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18575754&postcount=853) is a prediction that Clinton’s favorables will remain negative for the rest of the campaign. [Here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18684394&postcount=411) is a prediction that Clinton will win the SC Democratic primary by a small margin in a close race. [Here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18448849&postcount=150) is a prediction (early in the summer) that Bernie will win NH, throw the race into turmoil, and cause another “big name” candidate to jump in the race. [Here’s](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18345841&postcount=13) a very early prediction that he’s already retracted/changed – that Bernie Sanders will finish fourth in the Democratic primary. That’s all I’ve found so far – it appears that many of these predictions were repeated multiple times, but I only included them once. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/2 "2015-09-18T13:26:34Z")
Here’s one: > [@Trump's Republican primary campaign](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/149): > > IMO, the next President will be from this group: > > Joe Biden > Bernie Sanders > Martin O’Malley > Ben Carson > John Kasich > Chris Christie > Marco Rubio ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/3 "2015-09-18T13:30:52Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Here’s one: Good find. He didn’t say “I predict” or some variation, so I’ll leave it to him whether it’s an actual prediction or just a throwaway guess. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/4 "2015-09-18T17:33:32Z")
Here’s one. > [@The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/399): > > Call that a prediction. Jeb Bush will not be the nominee. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/5 "2015-09-18T17:46:27Z")
One more. > [@The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/670): > > If it’s Rubio, I predict he’ll own a 60% rating around the time of the convention. This isn’t a crazy prediction. Definitely not crazy. Says so right there. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/6 "2015-09-18T18:10:01Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > One more. Adding the context in here for easier checking later - That’s if Rubio gets the nomination his \*\*approval \*\*rating will be 60+%. Likely we don’t get to test that one for accuracy. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/7 "2015-09-18T18:19:51Z")
In that case his statement would be [vacuously true](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuous_truth), and thus a correct prediction. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/8 "2015-09-18T21:11:03Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Good find. He didn’t say “I predict” or some variation, so I’ll leave it to him whether it’s an actual prediction or just a throwaway guess. That’s a firm prediction. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/9 "2015-09-18T21:13:44Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > Adding the context in here for easier checking later - That’s if Rubio gets the nomination his \*\*approval \*\*rating will be 60+%. Likely we don’t get to test that one for accuracy. 😛 Rubio is actually campaigning well, so he’s well situated to be the establishment guy to break out if the outsiders falter. But even I’m not crazy enough to predict a winner at this point. I don’t even know who is going to win Iowa. In either party. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/10 "2015-09-18T21:25:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s a firm prediction. This makes me very happy. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/11 "2015-09-18T21:50:09Z")
Can I make a prediction? I think **adaher** ’s predictions will get more debate on this board than Nate Silver’s predictions. That’s not an insult directed toward anyone. Just an observation. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/12 "2015-09-18T21:52:48Z")
According to [PredictWise](http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president), as of right now we have: ```auto Joe Biden 8 % Bernie Sanders 7 % Martin OMalley 0 % Ben Carson 2 % John Kasich 2 % Chris Christie 2 % Marco Rubio 6 % ``` A total of 27 %. That’s not the super likely, but it’s also not the craziest prediction I’ve ever seen. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/13 "2015-09-18T22:16:03Z")
Juuuust want to pop in here to say that I support the thread. Adaher seems OK with it and that’s fine by me. But I’ll withdraw that support if it becomes mean or rude. But that would never happen, right? And I want to reiterate that it might be fun to have one for others as well. Best guess is that the election has twists and turns that surprises us all. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/14 "2015-09-18T23:51:43Z")
All predictions welcome here. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2015, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/15 "2015-09-18T23:55:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Rubio is actually campaigning well, so he’s well situated to be the establishment guy to break out if the outsiders falter. I agree with this. Once all the early noise settles down, I think he will be one of the few still standing. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2015, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/16 "2015-09-19T00:09:06Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Juuuust want to pop in here to say that I support the thread. Adaher seems OK with it and that’s fine by me. > > But I’ll withdraw that support if it becomes mean or rude. But that would never happen, right? > > And I want to reiterate that it might be fun to have one for others as well. Best guess is that the election has twists and turns that surprises us all. adaher is a good sport. I’ll make my own prediction that the final four are Clinton, Biden, Bush, and Trump. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2015, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/17 "2015-09-21T03:09:57Z")
Let me weigh in here on VP possibilities. These are not firm predictions, just educated guesses. I will make firm predictions on who will NOT be VP for a particular candidate: Hillary Clinton: possibles: Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Wes Clark, Howard Dean, Terry McCauliffe. No way in hell: anyone in the current field competing against her and no one who endorsed Obama over her in 2008. Liz Warren will be considered however, by Biden or Sanders or O’Malley. Let me throw in a wild card for Sanders: Robert Reich. For the GOP, if it’s an outsider candidate, I don’t know who the hell. Maybe Fiorina would go for Lindsey Graham, given Graham and Fiorina’s mutual friendship with John McCain. I’m a little more sure about the establishment guys. Rubio will be on everyone’s short list. But here’s two names that are likely who aren’t currently running who will be on Rubio, Bush, or Kasich’s short lists: Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty. Since this is a prediction thread, I’d bet on being right about one of those. The universe of possible VP nominees is pretty huge, so I’d be satisfied if I’d named one of them correctly. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2015, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/18 "2015-09-22T00:16:33Z")
My prediction that Jindal would be the next out was a fail. Walker is the next out. Have to admit, I was sure Walker was the frontrunner to win Iowa, but with outsidermania taking over the GOP it looks like Rubio is the only guy that can make any headway. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2015, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/19 "2015-09-22T05:12:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Rubio is actually campaigning well, so he’s well situated to be the establishment guy to break out if the outsiders falter. But even I’m not crazy enough to predict a winner at this point. I don’t even know who is going to win Iowa. In either party. I know you have a serious man-crush on Marco but I just don’t see it happening. And my main objection has nothing to do with his politics. No matter what he does he just comes across as this over eager Boy Scout. He seems like an inexperienced kid. Maybe down the road it could happen but I don’t see it happening this election cycle. At the moment I think Kasich is the most likely to get the GOP nod but that could change down the road. There are a bunch of things that would have to break his way but ultimately I think it likely he will be the only non-cuckoo choice standing. And I still think Hillary is the likely Dem. Actually, I’m more sure about that than anything on the GOP side at this point. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2015, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/20 "2015-09-22T05:21:14Z")
I like Rubio, but he’s nowhere near ready to be President. Kasich is the guy who should be the nominee. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=2)