# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/181 "2016-02-11T17:09:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t concede Iowa, and with good reason many Sanders supporters don’t either. Release the raw vote totals, DNC! I don’t concede that the Broncos won the Superbowl. Release the passing yards. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2016, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/182 "2016-02-20T22:53:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > My early state primary predictions are final: > > Iowa- Sanders, Cruz, Rubio 3rd > New Hampshire- Sanders, Kasich, Rubio 2nd > South Carolina- Clinton, Cruz, Rubio 2nd > Nevada- Sanders, Rubio > > I include Rubio because I think it’s coming down to a 3-man race heading into Super Tuesday: Rubio-Cruz-Kasich. Trump will be irrelevant and won’t win a single state. > > In the Democratic race, Sanders and Clinton are going to be grinding for delegates for a long time as well. **adaher** is wrong about the Democratic results in Nevada. Clinton has been projected to be the winner by the networks, and appears poised to win by about 4-6 points. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2016, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/183 "2016-02-20T23:04:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Here’s the current tally of **adaher’s** predictions so far with regards to the first two states. Bolded predictions are correct: > > Iowa: 3 predictions made (Sanders wins, **Cruz wins, Rubio comes in 3rd** ) – 2 out of 3 correct. > New Hampshire: 3 predictions made ( **Sanders wins** , Kasich wins, Rubio 2nd) – 1 out of 3 correct. > > Total through NH: 3 out of 6 correct. Add Nevada Democratic caucus: 1 prediction made, that Sanders would win, and it is incorrect. Total through today: 3 out of 7 correct. Stay tuned for South Carolina Republican results. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2016, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/184 "2016-02-20T23:36:14Z")
That one’s gonna be wrong too. Well, I might get Rubio in 2nd, but that’s a long shot. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/185 "2016-02-21T02:25:31Z")
SC 2nd place for the GOP is still possible for Rubes. Since you definitely got the #1 spot wrong, you’re at 3 out of 8 correct right now. If Rubes gets second, you’ll be at 4 out of 9, and if Cruz gets it, then you’ll be at 3 out of 9. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/186 "2016-02-21T02:44:37Z")
With 99% reporting, it looks like Rubio did take 2nd. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/187 "2016-02-21T14:25:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I think it’s coming down to a 3-man race heading into Super Tuesday: Rubio-Cruz-Kasich. Trump will be irrelevant and won’t win a single state. Umm … ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/188 "2016-02-21T14:35:05Z")
Well, at least my final 3 are in the final 4.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/189 "2016-02-21T15:52:38Z")
Please note that you have the same confidence in Clinton that you do in Trump. IOW, better get used to saying “Madame President”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/190 "2016-02-21T17:54:18Z")
Isn’t she behind in delegates right now? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2016, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/191 "2016-02-21T18:13:58Z")
No. And “Mr. Irrelevant” is leading, too. Time to stop and take stock, isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/192 "2016-02-24T14:20:10Z")
**adaher’s** Nevada Republican prediction is wrong, so the count on his predictions is now at 4 out of 10 correct. After South Carolina, I’m not sure if we have any more **adaher** predictions (other than the overall winners) – care to make any for Super Tuesday? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/193 "2016-02-24T14:29:12Z")
Sure: Sanders wins CO, MA, VT, and MN. On the Republican side: GA: Trump VA: Rubio MA: Trump TX: Cruz MN: Rubio OK: Trump AL: Trump TN: Trump AR: Trump AK: Trump Cruz drops out. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/194 "2016-02-24T15:03:04Z")
Thanks! I’ll take the other Democratic states as predictions that Clinton will win, correct? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/195 "2016-02-24T15:04:24Z")
No, because I suspect Sanders might win one or two more, I just don’t know which ones they will be. But I am comfortable predicting that Clinton will win more delegates, which isn’t exactly a tough prediction. And I REALLY hope I"m wrong about the Republican side on Super Tuesday, but it looks like Trump is set to roll until he faces just one guy. Rubio may very well be our only hope. Kasich’s polling is just not looking good enough to make him viable and Cruz’s path to the nomination looks to be closed off now. Cruz was expected to win the southern primaries but if anything that’s where Trump is now strongest. So the best I can hope for is that Rubio picks up a couple of wins and makes it closer than expected in other states, so that he doesn’t get ridiculously behind while we’re waiting for Cruz and Kasich to make their exits. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/196 "2016-02-24T15:16:19Z")
Okay, looking forward to evaluating your new predictions. You picked Clinton to win South Carolina, so you’ll probably be at 5 out of 11 after this Saturday, unless Bernie has an absolutely shocking upset. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/197 "2016-02-24T15:19:38Z")
I did predict Bernie would do better than the polling. As for today, the RCP average has Clinton up by 24. I predict he does a little better than that. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/198 "2016-02-28T00:43:54Z")
As expected, Hillary wins SC, so **adaher** ’s prediction record is now at 5 out of 11. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/199 "2016-02-28T07:44:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > As expected, Hillary wins SC, so **adaher** ’s prediction record is now at 5 out of 11. Is it too late to ask what the point of this thread is? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 9:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/200 "2016-02-28T09:53:01Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > Is it too late to ask what the point of this thread is? To track, evaluate, and discuss **adaher’s** 2016 election predictions. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=11)