# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/201 "2016-02-28T12:59:03Z")
And to prepare me for my own run for President, if I’m wrong often enough. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/202 "2016-02-28T13:27:59Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > To track, evaluate, and discuss **adaher’s** 2016 election predictions. I get that part. I was asking in the cosmic sense. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/203 "2016-02-28T13:32:09Z")
So that when I become President, you can all say you knew me when I was just a guy who was wrong all the time on the internet. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/204 "2016-02-28T17:18:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So that when I become President, you can all say you knew me when I was just a guy who was wrong all the time on the internet. Is that a prediction? ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/205 "2016-02-28T17:43:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I did predict Bernie would do better than the polling. As for today, the RCP average has Clinton up by 24. I predict he does a little better than that. Does this affect his score? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/206 "2016-02-28T18:38:21Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Does this affect his score? I think yes, so that would make him 5 out of 12. Good catch! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/207 "2016-02-28T18:42:04Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > Is it too late to ask what the point of this thread is? At heart, it’s to cajole \*\*adaher \*\*into greater awareness of the degree of his disconnection with conventional reality, to help him better align his own views of the political world with said reality, and to help him reduce the volume of wrongness he spews into the world. And to point and laugh. Being perfectly honest about that. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/208 "2016-02-28T18:47:30Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/209 "2016-02-29T04:04:52Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > At heart, it’s to cajole \*\*adaher \*\*into greater awareness of the degree of his disconnection with conventional reality, to help him better align his own views of the political world with said reality, and to help him reduce the volume of wrongness he spews into the world. > > And to point and laugh. Being perfectly honest about that. 😉 Actually, as a stand alone thread it does nothing of the sort. There have to be threads tracking other posters’ predictions. No one really knows if being right half the time is any good. It could be great, especially if you’re making difficult calls. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/210 "2016-02-29T18:51:23Z")
We can’t compare you directly to other posters, but we can compare you Nate Silver, PredictIt, PredictWise, RCP average, etc. And you are doing horribly when compared to those. Also 50/50 is not a bad rate when predicting close elections e.g. Iowa Democratic caucus, but 50/50 is quite awful when predicting races that are blow outs. You predicted a candidate to win in the New Hampshire Republican primary who ended up with less than half the votes of the winner. That was an awful prediction with no basis in reality. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/211 "2016-02-29T18:54:12Z")
We all suck at predicting. I said that Jeb had it all wrapped up a year ago. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/212 "2016-02-29T19:00:14Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > We all suck at predicting. I said that Jeb had it all wrapped up a year ago. Technically, that only proves YOU suck at predicting. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/213 "2016-02-29T19:02:01Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Technically, that only proves YOU suck at predicting. 😉 Yuk yuk. And of course we all missed the easy opportunity to predict Trump would cruise through the primaries. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/214 "2016-02-29T19:59:27Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > We all suck at predicting. I said that Jeb had it all wrapped up a year ago. You ain’t the only one. I stuck my neck out there for JEB!, too. Egg meet face. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/215 "2016-02-29T21:54:56Z")
Same here. Hardly anyone picked this as the year the asylum inmates would overpower the wardens. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2016, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/216 "2016-02-29T21:55:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No one really knows if being right half the time is any good. It could be great, especially if you’re making difficult calls. Says the guy who was sure Trump would be irrelevant and wouldn’t win a single state. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/217 "2016-03-01T00:29:29Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Yuk yuk. And of course we all missed the easy opportunity to predict Trump would cruise through the primaries. Well maybe not, but I was pretty skeptical of his oft predicted collapse of support. I remember specifically everyone saying, once it’s down to 3 or 4 candidates he’s toast and I was like “wtf? He’s at 30%, people”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/218 "2016-03-01T01:24:08Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > We can’t compare you directly to other posters, but we can compare you Nate Silver, PredictIt, PredictWise, RCP average, etc. And you are doing horribly when compared to those. If was better than prediction markets and Nate Silver that would be something. I’ll settle for being better than most SDMB posters. ---
**Author:** ![Subterraneanus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Subterraneanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Subterraneanus)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/219 "2016-03-01T03:30:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So that when I become President, you can all say you knew me when I was just a guy who was wrong all the time on the internet. I think we’ll always know you that way. ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/220 "2016-03-01T03:44:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, as a stand alone thread it does nothing of the sort. There have to be threads tracking other posters’ predictions. No one really knows if being right half the time is any good. It could be great, especially if you’re making difficult calls. From the 2016 elections prediction thread ([http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=769126&page=2](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=769126&page=2)), post 71: [QUOTE=me] My predictions Iowa: R Cruz, D Clinton New Hampshire: R Trump, D Sanders South Carolina: R Trump, D Clinton And in the Democratic race, Sanders folds his tent less than a week after Super Tuesday. [/QUOTE] for six out of six. (With whether it becomes 6 of 7 or 7 of 7 to be determined in another eight days or so.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=12)