# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/221 "2016-03-01T03:52:35Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Yuk yuk. And of course we all missed the easy opportunity to predict Trump would cruise through the primaries. I came pretty close back in December when I compared him to American Idol’s Taylor Hicks. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18951393&postcount=58](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18951393&postcount=58) But I never would have made that prediction in October. And I overestimated Trump a little bit, as I predicted he would win EVERY primary. I also thought Dems crossing the aisle and voting Trump out of strategy, sabotage or spite would be a talking point and that was a non-issue. But I kind of predicted the tone of Republican reaction although I misjudged the intensity. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/222 "2016-03-01T16:23:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’ll settle for being better than most SDMB posters. You might have something there if you could back it up with facts. Can you? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/223 "2016-03-01T17:23:49Z")
Are we out of **adaher** predictions (other than that the winner of the general election will come from a certain group [that happens to look less and less likely])? **adaher** , do you care to make any for the remainder of the primary season and into the general election? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/224 "2016-03-01T18:06:52Z")
There’s this, but the only thing in there that seems a little off is Rubio winning Virginia. Sanders winning Massachusetts is also contraindicated by polling. > [@adaher](#): > > Sure: > > Sanders wins CO, MA, VT, and MN. > > On the Republican side: > > GA: Trump > VA: Rubio > MA: Trump > TX: Cruz > MN: Rubio > OK: Trump > AL: Trump > TN: Trump > AR: Trump > AK: Trump > > Cruz drops out. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/225 "2016-03-01T18:12:36Z")
Thanks, I forgot about that one. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/226 "2016-03-01T21:31:12Z")
If I only went with what the polls said it wouldn’t be predicting, would it? Upsets happen. It is practically a guarantee that at least one or two races won’t end up as polled, and any prognosticator with a pair is going to make an educated guess as to which races are most likely to be surprises. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/227 "2016-03-01T22:04:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If I only went with what the polls said it wouldn’t be predicting, would it? Upsets happen. It is practically a guarantee that at least one or two races won’t end up as polled, and any prognosticator with a pair is going to make an educated guess as to which races are most likely to be surprises. Well no, actually. A prognosticator could reasonably say the polls will hold and even say there won’t be any surprises. I mean it might not help his ratings or garner him massive acculades when ridiculous predictions come true. But I guess that’s the question you have to ask: do you want to be a ballsy prognosticator or an accurate one? ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/228 "2016-03-01T22:12:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If I only went with what the polls said it wouldn’t be predicting, would it? Upsets happen. It is practically a guarantee that at least one or two races won’t end up as polled, and any prognosticator with a pair is going to make an educated guess as to which races are most likely to be surprises. “Cruz drops out” is an interesting prediction. That would make this the greatest day since Scott Walker slid away. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/229 "2016-03-01T22:13:16Z")
Well, if you want to be 80% accurate, you just cite the polls. If you want to be 100% accurate, you have to read the trends and figure out who has momentum and how things might be changing. Of course, no one is 100% accurate, predicting upsets is a very difficult thing to do. But if you never try then you aren’t really prognosticating, you’re just picking the favorites. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/230 "2016-03-01T22:28:25Z")
Well if you have real insight and knowledge that belies the polls that’s one thing but istm some defy the polls because of their own prejudices and wishful thinking. Not naming names or nothin’. And since you are shooting less than 80%, maybe you should stick with the polls. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/231 "2016-03-01T22:35:15Z")
I’m guilty of that, but I also rely on historical trends and data. I predicted a Kasich win in NH because I thought Trump was wounded, and Kasich as the 2nd place candidate was likely to take 1st since the actual winner(Cruz) wasn’t going to win NH under any circumstances. And in a normal election year, Kasich may very well have beaten Trump. Mitt Romney getting beaten in IA by Huck was a catalyst that helped JOhn McCain win NH. So it wasn’t just me wishing for the stars, although I’ll admit I was influenced by my Kasich fanboyism. My predictions of Rubio gaining an upset in a couple of states is based on a) his strong last debate performance, b) the recognition by mainstream GOP voters that they MUST stop Trump and in most states Rubio is the guy best suited to do that(In TX that would be Cruz of course), and c) yes, a dose of wishful thinking. As for Sanders and MA, RCP average is 6.7 Clinton, so not a crazy prediction, plus the makeup of the Dem voter base there gives him some natural advantages. I’m a little worried post-SC, because in the previous three races Sanders outperformed early expectations and in SC he laid an egg. But I still think he’ll outperform outside the South. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/232 "2016-03-01T22:48:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, if you want to be 80% accurate, you just cite the polls. If you want to be 100% accurate, you have to read the trends and figure out who has momentum and how things might be changing. > > Of course, no one is 100% accurate, predicting upsets is a very difficult thing to do. But if you never try then you aren’t really prognosticating, you’re just picking the favorites. Nate Silver is about as close as anyone comes, at least for Presidential races – if you want to be as close to 100% as possible, then just follow him. And he follows the polls, with some math to tweak them, based on polling firm accuracy, recency of the polls, and other factors. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/233 "2016-03-01T23:02:11Z")
Silver places odds though, he doesn’t “predict” a winner except in races that are pretty much sure things. If a race is a tossup he calls it a tossup. That being said, what do you think of Silver’s “polls plus” model? Has it been more accurate so far than the actual polling? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/234 "2016-03-01T23:04:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Silver places odds though, he doesn’t “predict” a winner except in races that are pretty much sure things. If a race is a tossup he calls it a tossup. If you had gone with his odds, you’ll be doing much, much better than you currrently are. 😉 > [@](#): > > That being said, what do you think of Silver’s “polls plus” model? Has it been more accurate so far than the actual polling? There have been so few contests that it’s hard to tell – I think it was better for the Dems in SC and NV, and not as good in IA and NH, and for the Republicans I don’t recall. Further, he continually tweaks it, taking into account the most recent election results. We’ll know more after the today’s results. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/235 "2016-03-01T23:06:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If you had gone with his odds, you’ll be doing much, much better than you currrently are. 😉 True, but that takes no particular insight to bet on the favorites. I don’t claim to be better than the polls, I just claim to be better than most people at figuring out where things are headed. Of course, I had a spectacular faceplant in 2012 and I’ve completely missed the boat on Donald Trump. Although I’m not alone on that latter one. I did correctly call that Jeb Bush would gain no traction when quite a few SDMB posters were confident that he was going to be the guy. I’d also note that when Sam Wang was claiming that all the Democrats were leading in their Senate races that I pointed out that Senate races don’t often turn on the fundamentals until late and that the Democratic incumbents were skating on name recognition at that point. That was me going WAY against the polls and getting it pretty close. I whiffed on Scott Brown but got most of the rest of them. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/236 "2016-03-01T23:09:26Z")
But as a show of camaraderie, I’ll throw out a prediction/guess: Trump will take over half the delegates tonight. 300 at least. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/237 "2016-03-01T23:11:46Z")
That’s an ultra safe prediction. Impress me by picking one race where the polling is off. You don’t even have to predict an upset. Tell ya what just do this: Pick the one candidate who will do better than expected today, in either party. They don’t have to win, they just have to exceed their polling averages by more than anyone else. SOMEONE is going to exceed expectations by at least a little bit, so just tell me who you think that will be. And if you’re sure it’s no one, that the polling is almost completely accurate, go with that. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/238 "2016-03-01T23:15:59Z")
Well my prediction is based on polling and the actual set up of delegate allocation. That’s what makes it a smart prediction. 😉 But actually, on CNN I was looking at projections of under 300. Like 280 maybe. Eta: I think Rubio might do better in a couple of states than polling suggests, like Georgia, but I don’t think it will affect his delegate count by anything noticeable. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/239 "2016-03-01T23:28:28Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well my prediction is based on polling and the actual set up of delegate allocation. That’s what makes it a smart prediction. 😉 But actually, on CNN I was looking at projections of under 300. Like 280 maybe. > > Eta: I think Rubio might do better in a couple of states than polling suggests, like Georgia, but I don’t think it will affect his delegate count by anything noticeable. I actually think Sanders is going to surprise more than Rubio, but I’m hoping he pulls of a couple of wins. Trouble is, ANY win is Rubio’s first. Cruz is the only other guy with a win and he’ll almost certainly get at least a second one today. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2016, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/240 "2016-03-01T23:44:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > True, but that takes no particular insight to bet on the favorites. I don’t claim to be better than the polls, I just claim to be better than most people at figuring out where things are headed. Of course, I had a spectacular faceplant in 2012 and I’ve completely missed the boat on Donald Trump. Although I’m not alone on that latter one. I did correctly call that Jeb Bush would gain no traction when quite a few SDMB posters were confident that he was going to be the guy. > > I’d also note that when Sam Wang was claiming that all the Democrats were leading in their Senate races that I pointed out that Senate races don’t often turn on the fundamentals until late and that the Democratic incumbents were skating on name recognition at that point. That was me going WAY against the polls and getting it pretty close. I whiffed on Scott Brown but got most of the rest of them. Sam Wang was wrong, but I’m pretty sure that Nate Silver was mostly right on those Senate races. Again, Silver is the gold standard. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=13)