# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2016, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/261 "2016-03-02T21:29:58Z")
Polling was sparse, but there were three different polls in the last week. Only one showed Cruz even coming in second. On the Dem side I looked at the official OK [elections site](http://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html) and found… ```auto Name Votes Pct BERNIE SANDERS 174,054 51.87% HILLARY CLINTON 139,338 41.52% MARTIN J. O'MALLEY 7,669 2.29% KEITH JUDD 4,385 1.31% MICHAEL A. STEINBERG 4,167 1.24% STAR LOCKE 3,456 1.03% ROQUE ROCKY DE LA FUENTE 2,485 0.74% ``` [Keith Judd](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Russell_Judd) with a nice 4th place finish received more votes than Jeb Bush did on the republican side. Some oddball votes are bound to be cast in any election, but not at the levels we see here. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2016, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/262 "2016-03-02T21:54:42Z")
For comparison here’s the same seven people in New Hampshire: ```auto Name Votes Pct Sanders 152,181 60.98% Clinton 95,324 38.20% O'Malley 660 0.26% De La Fuente 95 0.04% Judd 44 0.02% Locke 32 0.01% Steinberg 21 0.01% ``` Oklahomans are either really strange or Keith Judd is really surging. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/263 "2016-03-02T22:01:13Z")
Maybe Oklahoma just has crazy more early voting? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/264 "2016-03-06T21:34:21Z")
**adaher** , did you make any predictions about yesterday’s contests (with a link, please :))? And do you have any for the contests over the next few weeks? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/265 "2016-03-06T22:16:25Z")
No, I had no idea what was going to happen. I do have predictions for two primaries though: Florida- Trump Ohio- Kasich Both of those are favored so I treat my own predictions with disdain.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2016, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/266 "2016-03-06T22:18:06Z")
Pleasepleaseplease pick Trump to beat Clinton. Thanks, bud, yer a pal. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/267 "2016-03-16T17:29:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No, I had no idea what was going to happen. > > I do have predictions for two primaries though: > > Florida- Trump > > Ohio- Kasich > > Both of those are favored so I treat my own predictions with disdain.🙂 Good predictions! You are up to 17 out of 29. Any further predictions for primaries in the next few weeks? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/268 "2016-03-16T18:57:37Z")
All the Clinton-Sanders races seem pretty straightforward, so I figure there probably won’t be any major upsets there. Time for me to get bold on the GOP side again though: Arizona-Trump Wisconsin- John Kasich New York-Kasich Maryland-Kasich Pennsylvania-Trump California-Kasich New Jersey-Trump ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/269 "2016-03-16T20:51:43Z")
Only one of those stands out to me as being somewhat crazy although I haven’t given it a ton of thought. What makes you think Kasich is going to beat Trump in his home state? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2016, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/270 "2016-03-16T23:27:09Z")
I don’t think being from a state is where an advantage comes from. Representing a state and already being popular with its voters is how a home state advantage happens. Trump just lives there. New York has a moderate Republican electorate that is tailor made for Kasich. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/271 "2016-03-18T16:01:38Z")
Emerson released a [poll](http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_e6ef41f2113347feaedca7d88762c6f3.pdf) today confirming my suspicions about New York. > [@](#): > > With Marco Rubio out of the race, Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, by 52 points (64% to 12%). Rubio received 4% of the vote before suspending his campaign. Ohio Governor John Kasich earned just 1%, getting no bounce from his recent home-field victory in the Buckeye State. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/272 "2016-03-18T16:18:54Z")
I am betting Trump wins New York but not sure I trust the Emerson guys. The poll was conducted March 14-16th and they felt it coherent to mention Kasich didn’t get a bounce from his March 15th win? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/273 "2016-03-18T16:28:10Z")
I think, but I can’t say for sure, that they are commenting on the differences between responses they collected on the 16th compared to those collected on the 14th and 15th. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/274 "2016-03-18T16:36:13Z")
Maybe. But the GOP side of that poll was a grand total of 298 likely voters. Seems pretty thin to try and interpret a one day old trend out of that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2016, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/275 "2016-03-19T00:45:50Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I am betting Trump wins New York but not sure I trust the Emerson guys. The poll was conducted March 14-16th and they felt it coherent to mention Kasich didn’t get a bounce from his March 15th win? That poll basically should have just read, “Adaher is WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!” On the bright side, Kasich/Rubio combined are at 30 in the last California poll, with Trump at 38. So a Kasich win there isn’t entirely out of the question. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2016, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/276 "2016-03-19T07:42:37Z")
Adaher, I’m as surprised as you are about Kasich polling so poorly among NY Republicans. Heck, I used to confuse Kasich with Pataki. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2016, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/277 "2016-03-19T08:08:47Z")
It’s shocking that the people who selected a moderate Republican bridge-builder like Carl Paladino to be their candidate for governor are looking likely to support Donald Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/278 "2016-03-19T16:49:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > All the Clinton-Sanders races seem pretty straightforward, so I figure there probably won’t be any major upsets there. Time for me to get bold on the GOP side again though: > > Arizona-Trump > Wisconsin- John Kasich > New York-Kasich > Maryland-Kasich > Pennsylvania-Trump > California-Kasich > New Jersey-Trump Why do you even make these predictions? ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/279 "2016-03-25T07:10:31Z")
Nate Silver gives the Democratic candidate 374 electoral votes, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. [http://samuel-warde.com/2016/03/nate-silvers-electoral-map-guaranteed-give-republicans-nightmares/](http://samuel-warde.com/2016/03/nate-silvers-electoral-map-guaranteed-give-republicans-nightmares/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 7:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/280 "2016-03-25T07:14:16Z")
Trump as the nominee is nightmare enough. Clinton beating him is not making things worse. Now show me a map where Clinton crushes Cruz or Kasich and then I’ll get a little scared. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=15)