# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/281 "2016-03-25T07:15:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Trump as the nominee is nightmare enough. Clinton beating him is not making things worse. > > Now show me a map where Clinton crushes Cruz or Kasich and then I’ll get a little scared. If Cruz was nominated, he’d only win the Mormon belt. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/282 "2016-03-25T07:32:10Z")
The polls actually show Cruz behind, but competitive. At this point he’d do about as well as Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/283 "2016-03-25T20:13:19Z")
**adaher** , what is your estimate of the probability that Cruz will be the nominee? How about Kasich? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2016, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/284 "2016-03-27T02:50:54Z")
Aw hell, I don’t know, because I have no idea what they’ll be thinking at a brokered convention. They may limit themselves only to the candidates running. If that occurs, I’d give Kasich the best chance in that scenario with Cruz a close second. But if they open up the floor to nominations from any source, it could be anybody. Names like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan get tossed around, but historically the best compromise candidates have often been someone no one would expect, like Lamar Alexander. I think there are literally at least 100 REpublican officeholders and former officeholders who would jump at the chance to win the nomination and have such a short campaign ahead of them. Actually, if I’m a Republican strategist, I look at one of those guys who fell short in previous primary campaigns but would have made formidable general election candidates. Like Jon Huntsman. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/285 "2016-04-01T04:41:11Z")
Not a 2016 prediction, but California’s minimum wage hike will not stand. Much like Vermont’s single payer attempt, it will be abandoned or delayed so long as to make no difference. For those who don’t know, California increased minimum wage to $15/hr, phased in over six years. I predict that $15/hr will not be reached in six years, or ten years, barring unexpected inflation. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/286 "2016-04-01T11:06:39Z")
I found an interesting factoid out there that makes me wonder if the Democrats really have gone that far to the left: In 2008, [Hillary said](http://www.cfr.org/elections/clintons-speech-aipac-conference/p16420): > [@](#): > > When _ **Islamic extremists** _, including the leaders of nations, proclaim death to America, death to Israel, we understand that our two nations are fighting a shared threat. She [also said](https://web.archive.org/web/20081204061801/http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005217C29.html): > [@](#): > > Europe must acknowledge that the threat of fundamentalist, **Islamist terror** is not just directed at the United States. It is a threat to us all. No one can make a separate peace. None of us, as we saw in Madrid, is immune. Even Obama (tho prodded) said: > [@](#): > > [Wright] expressed a profoundly distorted view of this country… a view that sees the conflicts in the Middle East as rooted primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel, instead of emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of **radical Islam**. Has the Democratic party moved that far to the left? I think [Bill Maher is 1000% right on this issue](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLIbDaqPXG8). I know the Hillary at heart still would use those words but for how far-left the party’s base has moved. She does use the term “jihadism” which ultra-liberals and Obama won’t even use. But still. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/287 "2016-04-01T12:44:12Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > I found an interesting factoid out there that makes me wonder if the Democrats really have gone that far to the left: > > In 2008, [Hillary said](http://www.cfr.org/elections/clintons-speech-aipac-conference/p16420): > > She [also said](https://web.archive.org/web/20081204061801/http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005217C29.html): > > Even Obama (tho prodded) said: > > Has the Democratic party moved that far to the left? I think [Bill Maher is 1000% right on this issue](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLIbDaqPXG8). I know the Hillary at heart still would use those words but for how far-left the party’s base has moved. She does use the term “jihadism” which ultra-liberals and Obama won’t even use. But still. This doesn’t seem to have anything to do with this thread (which is about **adaher’s** predictions); perhaps you should start a new one or find a thread that is related to the topic you want to discuss. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/288 "2016-04-01T13:00:30Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This doesn’t seem to have anything to do with this thread (which is about **adaher’s** predictions); perhaps you should start a new one or find a thread that is related to the topic you want to discuss. It could affect the election, and potentially enable a Cruz or Kasich, maybe even Trump win, so it is relevant. At least for November, esp. how a brokered convention is possible. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/289 "2016-04-01T13:14:33Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > It could affect the election, and potentially enable a Cruz or Kasich, maybe even Trump win, so it is relevant. At least for November, esp. how a brokered convention is possible. How is it relevant for **adaher’s** predictions? That’s what this thread is about. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2016, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/290 "2016-04-02T03:00:38Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > I found an interesting factoid out there that makes me wonder if the Democrats really have gone that far to the left: > > In 2008, [Hillary said](http://www.cfr.org/elections/clintons-speech-aipac-conference/p16420): > > She [also said](https://web.archive.org/web/20081204061801/http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005217C29.html): > > Even Obama (tho prodded) said: > > Has the Democratic party moved that far to the left? I think [Bill Maher is 1000% right on this issue](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLIbDaqPXG8). I know the Hillary at heart still would use those words but for how far-left the party’s base has moved. She does use the term “jihadism” which ultra-liberals and Obama won’t even use. But still. No, just like everyone has been telling you for the past 9 months or so, regardless of his words Obama has perfectly happy to wage war against Islamist reaction. As for me, I could care less whether my President calls them “Islamist” or “extremnist” or whatever as long as he signs off on a drone strike blowing those dysgenics into smithereens. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2016, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/291 "2016-04-02T03:01:46Z")
As a side-note, I might add it’s quite fortunate that **adaher** is living in modern day United States making political predictions with his track record rather then in Zhou Dynasty China as the Royal Astronomer. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/292 "2016-04-06T15:51:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Wisconsin- John Kasich If Kasich voters were allowed to vote three times a piece he still would have lost. Would you like to reevaluate your New York, Maryland, or California Kasich predictions? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2016, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/293 "2016-04-06T15:59:12Z")
With Wisconsin (wow, that was an awful pick, **adaher** ), you’re up to 17 out of 30, unless I’ve miscounted somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2016, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/294 "2016-04-11T04:20:52Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > How is it relevant for **adaher’s** predictions? That’s what this thread is about. Although you could make a case that at post #268 the thread mutated from actual predictions to **adaher** trying to convince himself that Kasich still has a chance. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/295 "2016-04-20T16:26:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > New York-Kasich So close. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/296 "2016-04-20T16:28:27Z")
17 out of 31 now. That NY pick was very silly. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/297 "2016-04-20T16:29:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > New York-Kasich > [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > So close. Are you saying there’s more to New York than Manhattan? :eek: 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/298 "2016-04-20T16:48:51Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Are you saying there’s more to New York than Manhattan? :eek: > 😃 Obviously, he meant New York County. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2016, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/299 "2016-04-27T02:38:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Maryland-Kasich Another near miss. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2016, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/300 "2016-04-27T16:13:11Z")
I am very disappointed in Republican voters. I had hoped to the last that they’d come to their senses. In every previous cycle, liberals’ hopes that Republican voters were crazy and would nominate someone unelectable failed to come true. This time it did, and it’s about the most depressing thing I can imagine. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=16)