# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/322 "2016-05-10T04:34:54Z")
I’ll also mention here that I’ve taken to betting against myself in prediction markets on either/or issues and elections to test with real money just how much of my predictions are wishful thinking. If Andy is right, I am about to become a very rich man. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/323 "2016-05-10T05:40:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’d also like it to be noted that while I have not predicted Lindsey Graham as Clinton’s running mate, I did put the name out there at a time when virtually no one thinks it’s going to happen. So if it does happen, remember that I at least floated it as a possibility. > > I’d note that Graham will not support Trump at all, which is the first step towards him being acceptable as a Clinton running mate. Hahaha that’d lock in the disaffected Republican vote…but in the final analysis I don’t think it’d persuade many Pubs to cross over who weren’t going to anyway. No, he’ll be a Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/324 "2016-05-10T05:56:29Z")
It would persuade me. As of right now I’m for Gary Johnson, but I’ve always been a huge fan of Lindsey Graham and knowing he’d have a seat at the table would be big for me. There are some REpublicans who are pretty close to being Democrats of course. I wouldn’t be influenced if she picked Olympia Snowe. But Graham is actually a solid conservative, he just rejects the battier notions of the conservative movement. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/325 "2016-05-10T11:26:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It would persuade me. As of right now I’m for Gary Johnson, but I’ve always been a huge fan of Lindsey Graham and knowing he’d have a seat at the table would be big for me. Would you volunteer to be the food taster if Lindsey was at Hillary’s table? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/326 "2016-05-10T11:27:30Z")
That’s probably why Clinton wasn’t 2nd in line the last eight years. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/327 "2016-05-10T11:32:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s probably why Clinton wasn’t 2nd in line the last eight years. Because Hillary is to Obama what Lindsey is to Hillary? Really? _Really??_ ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/328 "2016-05-10T11:41:57Z")
Well, if you’re going to accuse Republicans of being willing to poison the President, it should be noted that Clinton is a lot more ambitious to become President than Lindsey Graham ever was. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/329 "2016-05-10T12:12:42Z")
If Hillary picked Lindsay Graham, who is one of the biggest warmongers in DC, I’d actually consider voting 3rd party. There’s zero chance of this, luckily. Almost every election someone floats this idea, but it never happens, and triply so in this election (considering how critical Graham has been of President Obama, and considering how tightly Hillary has hugged the President, among many, many other factors). But I’d be happy to make a bet with you, **adaher**. I’d give you 10-1 odds, too. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/330 "2016-05-10T12:21:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, if you’re going to accuse Republicans of being willing to poison the President, it should be noted that Clinton is a lot more ambitious to become President than Lindsey Graham ever was. Graham’s ambition is not the danger to Hillary. He is not the most deranged, partisan member of the Republican party. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2016, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/331 "2016-05-10T12:23:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’d also like it to be noted that while I have not predicted Lindsey Graham as Clinton’s running mate, I did put the name out there at a time when virtually no one thinks it’s going to happen. So if it does happen, remember that I at least floated it as a possibility. > > I’d note that Graham will not support Trump at all, which is the first step towards him being acceptable as a Clinton running mate. Now I’ve said that despite my “pro-TRUMP” posts, I’m going to be intending to vote for Clinton in November, but in very unlikely event she makes Graham (or another warmonger) her VP, I will cast my ballot for the Donald or write-in Pepe the Frog, whichever amuses me more. Of course it won’t happen and I project that it’s more likely I’ll be fucking Elle Fanning. > [@adaher](#): > > It would persuade me. As of right now I’m for Gary Johnson, but I’ve always been a huge fan of Lindsey Graham and knowing he’d have a seat at the table would be big for me. There are some REpublicans who are pretty close to being Democrats of course. I wouldn’t be influenced if she picked Olympia Snowe. But Graham is actually a solid conservative, he just rejects the battier notions of the conservative movement. Gary Johnson and Lindsey Graham are pretty much polar opposites. And Olympia Snowe is only appreciably a “moderate” because of her stances on cultural issues-she voted against the ACA for heaven’s sake! Needless to say even if Clinton (which again she won’t) picks a “moderate” like Snowe, I will vote TRUMP. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/332 "2016-06-09T12:31:14Z")
Resurrecting this thread – I think we can now evaluate **adaher** ’s primary predictions as a whole. If you are game, **adaher** , we can also play around with general election predictions. Just a sum-up post, firstly – more detailed analysis will follow. In total, it looks like ~50% of your predictions (usually who would win a certain primary) were good. In my view, **adaher** , compared to Nate Silver and other “professional” political prognosticators, your primary predictions were not good at all. You could have gone strictly with RCP polling averages and would have had a much, much higher success rate. I think wishful thinking too often muddled your analysis, pushing you to greatly overestimate Kasich’s performance while greatly underestimating Hillary’s. What have you learned from this primary, and how will you apply it to any future predictions (if you make any)? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/333 "2016-06-09T12:39:26Z")
I don’t feel too bad, since even Nate Silver was surprised by everything that’s happened. But yes, wishful thinking does lead me to predict things i shouldn’t. As for the general election, who knows? I’m sure Trump and Clinton will do their best to try to lose and turnout is going to be unpredictable. Historically, when candidates are unpopular we see low turnout. So does that help Trump? Who knows? Or maybe Trump is so uniquely bad that we get record high turnout? I do feel comfortable predicting some Senate races though: California-Linda Sanchez(D) Florida-Patrick Murphy(D) Illinois-Tammy Duckworth(D) Wisconsin-Russ Feingold(D) Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey® Ohio-Rob Portman® Nevada-Joe Heck® New Hampshire-Kelly Ayotte® Colorado-Michael Bennett(D) Arizona-John McCain® By my count, that’s a net 2 seat pickup for Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/334 "2016-06-09T12:48:23Z")
So all the tossups go red. How surprising. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/335 "2016-06-09T12:50:25Z")
You think Murphy and Bennett are a sure thing? Florida is a classic tossup and Bennett is quite vulnerable. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/336 "2016-06-09T12:55:27Z")
I think PA and OH are likely Democratic wins and with plutonium at the top of the ticket, AZ and NH are in play as well. NV is a reliably blue presidential state, with the Great Democratic Energizer Trump on the ballot, that’s going blue as well. Pick up FL as well and we’ll see a nice working Democratic majority. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/337 "2016-06-09T13:08:39Z")
Toomey and Portman are popular. Clinton’s going to need coattails for those to flip. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/338 "2016-06-09T13:16:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Toomey and Portman are popular. Clinton’s going to need coattails for those to flip. Coattails? All we need is the anti-Trump anti-gravity wave. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/339 "2016-06-09T15:15:43Z")
Here are the PredictIt derived win probabilities for those states (except CA for which there is no market yet). All markets except AZ are listed as choices between D or R while AZ is McCain yes or no. ```auto State D R Arizona 40.0% 60.0% Colorado 74.7% 25.3% Florida 55.1% 44.9% Illinois 78.0% 22.0% Nevada 61.0% 39.0% New Hampshire 54.8% 45.2% Ohio 53.5% 46.5% Pennsylvania 61.9% 38.1% Wisconsin 77.8% 22.2% ``` ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 9, 2016, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/340 "2016-06-09T15:52:56Z")
And just for fun here’s a post from back in September in the Un-fork Hillary thread… > [@The Great Un-Fork Hillary Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-great-un-fork-hillary-thread/717458/1345): > > All is proceeding as I have foreseen. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2016, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/341 "2016-06-10T00:13:46Z")
So my biggest outlier prediction is Toomey’s win, which is judged at 38.1%. So no real out there predictions. The reason I think Toomey will win is money and the fact that his opponent is just too generic and unimaginitive to be the type to topple a fairly well liked incumbent. Hillary would have to have some pretty serious coattails to topple Toomey. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=18)