# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2016, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/342 "2016-06-10T02:05:25Z")
Please also consider that he, and all other GOP candidates, will be dragging the anchor at the top of their ticket. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 10, 2016, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/343 "2016-06-10T02:28:40Z")
We can start saying that when he actually starts dragging himself down, much less other candidates. The polls show a close race. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/344 "2016-08-04T06:55:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I do feel comfortable predicting some Senate races though: > > California-Linda Sanchez(D) > Florida-Patrick Murphy(D) > Illinois-Tammy Duckworth(D) > Wisconsin-Russ Feingold(D) > Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey(R) > Ohio-Rob Portman(R) > Nevada-Joe Heck(R) > New Hampshire-Kelly Ayotte(R) > Colorado-Michael Bennett(D) > Arizona-John McCain(R) > > By my count, that’s a net 2 seat pickup for Democrats. Your first pick out of the box is wrong, for two reasons: 1. Kamala Harris is going to win, and 2. Linda isn’t on the ballot. Her sister Loretta is. Are you sure you have the rest of the candidates right in your list? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/345 "2016-08-04T11:17:21Z")
Gotta change my pick in Florida to Rubio given changing circumstances. We’re also close enough to the election now that I predict Hillary Clinton will win, and the Republicans will hold the House and Senate. Gary Johnson will get the 5% needed for federal funding for the LP in the next election. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/346 "2016-08-04T12:38:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Gotta change my pick in Florida to Rubio given changing circumstances. > > We’re also close enough to the election now that I predict Hillary Clinton will win, and the Republicans will hold the House and Senate. Gary Johnson will get the 5% needed for federal funding for the LP in the next election. Yay! More **adaher** predictions! Are you sure your Senate pick isn’t based on wishful thinking? Seems like a crapshoot to me. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/347 "2016-08-04T15:34:47Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Yay! More **adaher** predictions! > > Are you sure your Senate pick isn’t based on wishful thinking? Seems like a crapshoot to me. _Right now,_ the odds are in his favor. The GOP , _as of now,_ will likely hold a very small edge in the Senate. This will likely change. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/348 "2016-08-04T15:58:07Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > _Right now,_ the odds are in his favor. The GOP , _as of now,_ will likely hold a very small edge in the Senate. This will likely change. A lot of it is due to external forces - there’s a recent poll out of New Hampshire that shows Kelly Ayotte [very behind](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/290362-new-hampshire-poll-ayotte-trails-by-10-points). There’s another out of Pennsylvania showing McGinty [pulling ahead](http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/10901982-74/mcginty-percent-poll) of Toomey, albeit not by very much. These events are correlated with Trump stuff, it seems, and if he continues on his path he’s going to drag some Senators down with him. I also think that Iowa and Indiana ought to be on the list of possible Democratic pickups - less likely, but not guaranteed Republican holds. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/349 "2016-08-04T19:07:58Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Coattails? All we need is the anti-Trump anti-gravity wave. If Clinton wins only 40-45% of the vote, then it’s hard to see how that helps downballot. That would mean that 50-55% of the vote went to Trump/Gary Johnson, and not many of those voters are supporting the Democrats, and significantly less Johnson voters are going to be voting for the LP candidate than voting for Johnson. Those are probably Republican votes. If four way polling shows Clinton near or above a majority, then that probably causes downballot issues for Republicans. But at 42-43%, they are sitting pretty. In 1992, Bill had no coattails either. The Democrats gained no Senate seats and lost 9 House seats. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/350 "2016-08-04T19:11:31Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > _Right now,_ the odds are in his favor. The GOP , _as of now,_ will likely hold a very small edge in the Senate. This will likely change. Much as in previous midterms(even though this isn’t one), if incumbents are going down it probably won’t show until October. In 2014, Sam Wang was pretty confident in the strength of Democratic incumbents, who were all ahead in the polling up until October. My prediction is based on the fact that this is not a midterm and that the candidates will matter. And although Trump is likely to lose and lose big, it doesn’t look like Clinton’s going to do too well either. The combined third party vote could rise to Perot levels. To win the Senate, the Democrats probably need a majority of the votes in Senate races. Unless a lot of non-Clinton voters vote Democrat, it looks like they will fall short. I just don’t see many Johnson voters supporting their local Democrats. Finally, Trump might actually be HELPING Republicans keep the Senate, because all the donor money is going to the Senate and not to Trump. The Democrats could be massively outspent in the crucial Senate races. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/351 "2016-08-04T19:35:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Clinton wins only 40-45% of the vote, then it’s hard to see how that helps downballot. That would mean that 50-55% of the vote went to Trump/Gary Johnson… > [@adaher](#): > > Gary Johnson will get the 5% needed for federal funding for the LP in the next election. I’m not clear on the math here – you think Clinton will get 40-45% of the vote, Johnson will get more than 5%… leaving Trump with roughly 50% of the vote, yet losing the election? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/352 "2016-08-04T19:58:40Z")
This isn’t a prediction, just an observation about the 4-way polling. IF Clinton cannot get near a majority, she’ll be no help downballot, just as her husband was no help(actually he had reverse coattails). The third party+undecided vote is currently about 20%, so she only needs to bring a third of those voters into her column to get near a majority, whereas Trump needs to win at least half. But that’s not a HUGE haul for either of them. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/353 "2016-08-04T21:14:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > To win the Senate, the Democrats probably need a majority of the votes in Senate races. Quoted for truth, dude… ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/354 "2016-08-04T21:34:42Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > In this thread, I recommend we refrain from mocking **adaher** – he’s gracious enough to share his predictions with us, and I’d like to keep this thread around and active until we can evaluate their accuracy with results. I’m just getting around to reading this thread, not going to read through all of it, but 2 things are remarkable to me: [ul] [li]Early on, adaher calls trump odious.[/li][li]Early on, adaher considers Trump a viable contender.[/li][/ul] I disagree with adaher on many points, but I think he nailed these things earlier than many of us left-leaners did. Personally, on 10-22-2015 I didn’t appreciate how odious Trump was, and I didn’t even think he rated serious consideration. This is not just to give adaher a high 5, but rather to observe that maybe the conservative news bubble has some useful insights now and then. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/355 "2016-08-04T21:43:08Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You could have gone strictly with RCP polling averages and would have had a much, much higher success rate. I think wishful thinking too often muddled your analysis, pushing you to greatly overestimate Kasich’s performance while greatly underestimating Hillary’s. The latter is probably the greatest weakness in my view… the possibility of a Hillary win has been heretofore unthinkable outside the conservative bubble. But anyone who saw Trump coming deserves some kudos in my book. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/356 "2016-08-04T22:01:02Z")
Actually, I was sure he was going to eventually lose. I kept on expecting a rally around Kasich moment that never came. Of course, I also assumed a rational Republican voting base and sound strategic behavior on the part of the establishment wing of the party. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/357 "2016-08-04T22:07:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, I was sure he was going to eventually lose. I kept on expecting a rally around Kasich moment that never came. > > Of course, I also assumed a rational Republican voting base and sound strategic behavior on the part of the establishment wing of the party. Yeah…if I’d stuck my neck out in 2015 I would have assumed those things as well, and predicted that Trump would eventually fall off the face of the earth. In fact, I’m pretty sure I said that several times. I was and am shocked that this dude has managed to get a major party candidacy. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/358 "2016-08-04T22:13:46Z")
Nate Silver was also a bit taken aback. The GOP has historically been very smart about picking their nominees. Not since Goldwater has the party nominated anyone but their most electable candidate(or at least nearly the most electable candidate). Perennially choosing losers was something the Democrats used to do: McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry. By contrast, even when the GOP lost, you couldn’t fault their candidate selection. Except for 1964 and now. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/359 "2016-08-04T22:35:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, I was sure he was going to eventually lose… You’re still not entirely wrong yet, but kudos on you for even seeing Trump in the running. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/360 "2016-08-05T11:03:33Z")
I love reminiscing about the good old days when \*\*adaher \*\*was so insistently gloating over Hillary’s free fall. Seems like it was only a month or so ago … ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/361 "2016-08-05T11:27:48Z")
You can gloat after the election. The only reason this isn’t a sure thing is precisely because the nominee is Hillary Clinton. She’s still stuck at 43% in a four way race and even if she wins she could very well drag down Senate candidates. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=19)