# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/121 "2015-12-21T23:24:42Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Well, I got the Koch and the Kasich, since they’re both names, but I am still unfamiliar with the word Kuck. Gibberish that is “Exactly What It Says on the Tin” is still gibberish. I assume an intentionally misspelled shortening of [cuckservative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuckservative)? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/122 "2015-12-21T23:31:33Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I assume an intentionally misspelled shortening of [cuckservative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuckservative)? Oh, OK. Learn something every day. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2015, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/123 "2015-12-21T23:32:15Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Oh, OK. Learn something every day. Even if it’s something you’d like to unlearn. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/124 "2015-12-23T13:39:21Z")
I’m adding a prediction to this thread: Donald Trump will not win a single primary or caucus. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/125 "2015-12-23T14:00:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m adding a prediction to this thread: > > Donald Trump will not win a single primary or caucus. Answering the question we’ll be asking ourselves next summer: When did you realize that Trump had the nomination clinched? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/126 "2015-12-23T14:06:28Z")
If Trump does win IA and NH and SC, it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/127 "2015-12-23T14:13:30Z")
Rachel Maddow pointed out a few nights back that no Republican has ever had this big a lead in the polls this late in the year and failed to win the nomination. Not to say he can’t still fall short, but history is on his side. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2015, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/128 "2015-12-23T16:59:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m adding a prediction to this thread: > > Donald Trump will not win a single primary or caucus. This is the kind of straightforward prediction I like. None of this if A then B wishy washy business. However, I’d like to ask you why you believe this. Current RCP: IA -\> Trump -4.0 (to Cruz) NH -\> Trump +16.3 (Cruz and Rubio tied for second) SC -\> Trump +14.4 (to Cruz) Do you think winning Iowa is going to give Cruz a ~15 point bump in both NH and SC? Or is there some other scenario that you think is more likely? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2015, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/129 "2015-12-24T04:40:15Z")
No. I think that Trump’s loss in Iowa will have a similar effect to Romney’s loss in Iowa in 2008. Romney lost to the Christian conservative candidate, and that allowed the nearly McCain to take NH. Romney did go on to win Wyoming and Michigan after that, but he was a stronger, more traditional candidate with lots of funding and broad acceptance within the party. Trump enjoys none of those advantages. He’s not trying that hard to campaign, he’s not spending a lot of money and his support in the party is very limited, possibly not a majority even under the best of circumstances. So he lose Iowa to Cruz, and Christie wins NH(not a prediction yet, just a possible scenario). Where does Trump win after such disappointing finishes? And I do believe Christie would benefit most from a Trump fall, since they have similar approaches and ideology. Christie’s just within the bounds of the political rulebook while Trump doesn’t care. Bush could also win NH, as could Kasich and Rubio. But I just don’t think Trump takes NH if he doesn’t take IA. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2015, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/130 "2015-12-24T07:02:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No. I think that Trump’s loss in Iowa will have a similar effect to Romney’s loss in Iowa in 2008. That assumes their candidacies, especially in its relation to Iowa were equivalent. Romney was one among relative equals (Giuliani, McCain, and possibly Huckabee) in late 2007/early 2008 and needed to do well in Iowa as a candidate of the conservative part of the Establishment. TRUMP otoh has a healthy lead (the shitty Quinnipac poll not withstanding) over all the other candidates and his expectations aren’t as tied to Iowa but rather New Hampshire and South Carolina which is far more tailored towards his strengths (low turnout voters who obviously would show up more often in primaries and in cultural terms the populist Trump has far more of a resonance with ethnic Catholic blue collars in the Northeast or Scotch Irish Southern whites then with Midwestern types regardless of how conservative/liberal they are-there’s a reason why Trump is polling terribly in Yankee WASP descent areas like Mormon Utah) > [@](#): > > Romney lost to the Christian conservative candidate, and that allowed the nearly McCain to take NH. Romney did go on to win Wyoming and Michigan after that, but he was a stronger, more traditional candidate with lots of funding and broad acceptance within the party. That’s because both McCain and Romney were extremely strong candidates for NH-something that isn’t the case when the Establishment is divided among four candidates. And this ignores that Trump’s attractiveness is due to his unorthodoxy. > [@](#): > > Trump enjoys none of those advantages. He’s not trying that hard to campaign, he’s not spending a lot of money and his support in the party is very limited, possibly not a majority even under the best of circumstances. I find it rather ironic I have a higher opinion of the average Republican primary voter then you do. You seem to think that simply deluging the TV with “pollster tested” sleek ads is enough to sway voters while I think Republican voters will vote in their self interest regardless of ads. Indeed the brilliance of Trump’s strategy is that he’s exploded the idea that you need to spend huge amounts of money on expensive TV ads rather than just directly speak your mind via Twitter in an age when everyone and their grandmother are on the Internet. > [@](#): > > So he lose Iowa to Cruz, and Christie wins NH(not a prediction yet, just a possible scenario). Where does Trump win after such disappointing finishes? Except that won’t happen. > [@](#): > > And I do believe Christie would benefit most from a Trump fall, since they have similar approaches and ideology. Christie’s just within the bounds of the political rulebook while Trump doesn’t care Yes and that’s why Trump’s so popular. Christie just appears a piss-poor imitation of Trump in that regard especially with the baggage of Bridegate. > [@](#): > > Bush could also win NH, as could Kasich and Rubio. And that highlights the problem with the Establishment. All four of these Establishment candidates need to do well in New Hampshire and aren’t going to drop out before it which practically guarantees a Trump victory. Indeed with Cruz gobbling up the Tea Party/evangelical vote, its probable that none of the Establishment candidates will even come in second place. > [@](#): > > But I just don’t think Trump takes NH if he doesn’t take IA. Trump doesn’t need Iowa just like McCain. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2015, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/131 "2015-12-24T15:55:41Z")
Updating in the proper thread: > [@Trump's Republican primary campaign](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/149): > > I think I already predicted that Hillary Clinton will not be President, but if I haven’t, let me say it now: Hillary Clinton will not be President. I don’t think Trump will be either. > > IMO, the next President will be from this group: > > Joe Biden > Bernie Sanders > Martin O’Malley > Ben Carson > John Kasich > Chris Christie > Marco Rubio > [@Trump's Republican primary campaign](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trumps-republican-primary-campaign/729828/1265): > > Given that only one person can be President, the deletions are obvious. But I stand by my prediction and make no additions. Are you \*quite \*sure about all of that, **adaher**? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2015, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/132 "2015-12-25T16:20:54Z")
Also gathered elsewhere, you can now safely bet there will NOT be a Republican sweep: > [@Bill Clinton's penis a lock to move back into White House?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/bill-clintons-penis-a-lock-to-move-back-into-white-house/740809/171): > > After 2016, it will be complaining about the Republicans not getting anything useful done despite having control of everything. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/133 "2015-12-26T00:51:22Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Oh, OK. Learn something every day. Don’t feel bad. It’s an intensely stupid portmanteau forged, as the link indicates, by the intellectual leading lights of sites like 4chan and Stormfront, popularized by angry men who find the term “RINO” too endearing and prefer their humiliation sexual, and regrettably repeated here on this board quite a bit lately, from one source in particular. ---
**Author:** ![FightMyIgnorance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/71e660/32.png) [@FightMyIgnorance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FightMyIgnorance)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/134 "2015-12-26T03:40:59Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > Don’t feel bad. It’s an intensely stupid portmanteau forged, as the link indicates, by the intellectual leading lights of sites like 4chan and Stormfront, popularized by angry men who find the term “RINO” too endearing and prefer their humiliation sexual, and regrettably repeated here on this board quite a bit lately, from one source in particular. I don’t think you quite understand the context in which it’s used here. It’s not quite on the same level as such base insults that are often used in partisan hack literature, in that it actually makes a (in my view) valid critique of the Republican Party. RINO and cuckservative are completely different in their criticism, so much so that comparing them is completely useless. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/135 "2015-12-26T11:00:50Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Also gathered elsewhere, you can now safely bet there will NOT be a Republican sweep: That falls into the category of Pit trash talking, not a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/136 "2015-12-26T12:40:53Z")
> [@FightMyIgnorance](#): > > I don’t think you quite understand the context in which it’s used here. > > It’s not quite on the same level as such base insults that are often used in partisan hack literature, in that it actually makes a (in my view) valid critique of the Republican Party. > > RINO and cuckservative are completely different in their criticism, so much so that comparing them is completely useless. Maybe contrasting them would be more useful. To me, they’re both derogatory labels for Republicans who (allegedly) lean left; the second just goes farther in implying a motive. A RINO might be too liberal because he’s an _agent provocateur_, or a conservative who fell and hit his head one day, or (worst of all) because he’s a Republican who actually holds some of the loathsome ideals of the Left as his own. A “cuckservative” is too liberal because he’s a fool, a weakling, and a sexual masochist who either doesn’t know he’s being used or gets off on being humiliated. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/137 "2015-12-26T14:05:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That falls into the category of Pit trash talking, not a prediction. Are you willing to state a prediction, then? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/138 "2015-12-26T14:33:15Z")
Right now it looks like a 50-50 race for the Presidency. But I probably will make a prediction as soon as the nominees become obvious. If any of the names on my list are the GOP nominee, then you can count me down already as predicting GOP sweep in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/139 "2015-12-26T15:15:45Z")
“If”? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/140 "2015-12-26T21:29:41Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > Don’t feel bad. It’s an intensely stupid portmanteau forged, as the link indicates, by the intellectual leading lights of sites like 4chan and Stormfront, popularized by angry men who find the term “RINO” too endearing and prefer their humiliation sexual, and regrettably repeated here on this board quite a bit lately, from one source in particular. And do you believe I’ve been using the term in the exact same sense as the fellows on those forums? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=8)