# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/141 "2015-12-26T22:28:28Z")
If not, don’t expect anyone else to be able to read your mind. Or want to. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/142 "2015-12-26T22:41:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Right now it looks like a 50-50 race for the Presidency. But I probably will make a prediction as soon as the nominees become obvious. If any of the names on my list are the GOP nominee, then you can count me down already as predicting GOP sweep in 2016. That’s ruled out by the fact that Trump has built up enough momentum that stopping him will require conspicuous intervention from the GOP party establishment, and that such intervention will result in a large number of otherwise Republican voters staying home in disgust (best-case scenario) or voting for Trump and Trump-coattail-riding independents (if The YouTube Comment Thread That Walks Like A Man tears up his no-independent-run pledge). That makes holding the Senate hopeless and holding the House problematic. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2015, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/143 "2015-12-26T23:18:09Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > If not, don’t expect anyone else to be able to read your mind. Or want to. Well no but on the other hand if one considers that my actual political views are pretty obvious and the context in which I use the term “cuckservative” (and especially variants such as “Kochservative”) not to mention that I explicitly stated at least twice in what sense I’m using them… ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2015, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/144 "2015-12-27T02:58:24Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > That’s ruled out by the fact that Trump has built up enough momentum that stopping him will require conspicuous intervention from the GOP party establishment, and that such intervention will result in a large number of otherwise Republican voters staying home in disgust (best-case scenario) or voting for Trump and Trump-coattail-riding independents (if The YouTube Comment Thread That Walks Like A Man tears up his no-independent-run pledge). That makes holding the Senate hopeless and holding the House problematic. In first in the nation Iowa, the one poll that’s historically accurate there shows Trump far behind: > **['Big shakeup' in Iowa Poll: Cruz soars to lead](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/12/big-shakeup-iowa-poll-cruz-soars-lead/77199800/)** > > Iowa Poll: Seven weeks from the caucuses, Ted Cruz is crushing it in Iowa, up 10 points over Donald Trump. [http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151) Trump’s high numbers, in the great majority of polls, reflect name recognition. His method of being more and more outrageous, to keep other candidates from getting noticed by low information GOP voters. can’t possibly work in caucus states, where it takes a lot of commitment to actually cast a ballot. And it will usually fall apart in days leading up to primaries, as voters notice there are other candidates. The threat to the establishment is Ted Cruz. Your last sentence is wishful thinking. But I hope your wishes come true. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2015, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/145 "2015-12-27T13:11:07Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > And do you believe I’ve been using the term in the exact same sense as the fellows on those forums? No, your use is more nonsensical, applied as it is to a Republican who espouses political ideals not uncommon to Republicans. Maybe you find the near-rhyme and alliteration of “Koch” and “cuck” to be clever, or just want to co-opt the term as a generic pejorative. Whatever your motivation, it doesn’t change its origin, or my opinion that it’s a really childish insult. That said, I’m happy to return the focus to chronicling **adaher’s** wrong predictions for posterity’s sake. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2015, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/146 "2015-12-28T23:53:34Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > No, your use is more nonsensical, applied as it is to a Republican who espouses political ideals not uncommon to Republicans. Maybe you find the near-rhyme and alliteration of “Koch” and “cuck” to be clever, or just want to co-opt the term as a generic pejorative. Whatever your motivation, it doesn’t change its origin, or my opinion that it’s a really childish insult. Well it’s true that part of the appeal is the coincidence of “Koch” and “cuck” as well as the desire to co-opt the term for the left, but it also is indeed applicable in an ideological sense to most Republican politicians who espouse ideals of patriotism and populism while cuckolding America for the interests of the plutocrats. and the ivory tower ideologues of the think tanks. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/147 "2016-01-22T04:51:14Z")
My early state primary predictions are final: Iowa- Sanders, Cruz, Rubio 3rd New Hampshire- Sanders, Kasich, Rubio 2nd South Carolina- Clinton, Cruz, Rubio 2nd Nevada- Sanders, Rubio I include Rubio because I think it’s coming down to a 3-man race heading into Super Tuesday: Rubio-Cruz-Kasich. Trump will be irrelevant and won’t win a single state. In the Democratic race, Sanders and Clinton are going to be grinding for delegates for a long time as well. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/148 "2016-01-22T07:12:11Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Because this time the GOP field is nothing BUT batshit crazy! Michelle Bachman and Herman “ew-becky becky becky becky becky stan-stan” Cain are so much crazier than anyone in the current race. The candidates this time around are absolutely sane in comparison. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2016, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/149 "2016-01-24T00:52:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > My early state primary predictions are final: > > Iowa- Sanders, Cruz, Rubio 3rd > New Hampshire- Sanders, Kasich, Rubio 2nd > South Carolina- Clinton, Cruz, Rubio 2nd > Nevada- Sanders, Rubio > > I include Rubio because I think it’s coming down to a 3-man race heading into Super Tuesday: Rubio-Cruz-Kasich. Trump will be irrelevant and won’t win a single state. You’re very bullish on Rubio. It’s probably because you realize deep down that Kasich’s goose is cooked after New Hampshire (that’s a kind of ambiguous construction: I think Kasich’ll do well in NH, but poorly afterwards), and you realize Rubio is the best bet for Team Red. FWIW, I don’t think Rubio will beat third in IA, NH, or SC. He still has a path to the nomination, but that’s hoping that the ‘establishment’ lane clears out. Kasich’s performance in NH will put some sand in those gears. Interestingly, Rubio seems to being having a bit of a crisis of identity. He saw how much mileage Cruz and Trump were getting out of their mega-pessimism, and decided he wanted some of that, even though his brand was more focused on sunny idealism. Then he decided he was going to be the candidate you want to have a beer with, even though he’s a dweebish know-it-all that no one would ever want to have a beer with. I just don’t think it’s going to be his year. Ironically, the worst thing that could happen to his career is to be nominated. His best bet now is not to burn any bridges and regroup for a more serious effort in 2020 (or 2024, depending on how likely Clinton’s re-election is looking.) ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/150 "2016-01-24T02:17:41Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > Interestingly, Rubio seems to being having a bit of a crisis of identity. He saw how much mileage Cruz and Trump were getting out of their mega-pessimism, and decided he wanted some of that, even though his brand was more focused on sunny idealism. Then he decided he was going to be the candidate you want to have a beer with, even though he’s a dweebish know-it-all that no one would ever want to have a beer with. No one wants to have a beer with him because he always sounds like a pre-recorded message. Like a grade school student who prepared for a presentation by staying up all night memorizing something from a book word-for-word, hoping that it would make people think he really understands it. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2016, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/151 "2016-01-27T17:56:14Z")
Regarding Trump’s current chances in Iowa: > [@Iowa Caucuses and Trump Supporters](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-and-trump-supporters/744383/7): > > I predict he’ll lose Iowa to Cruz and then lose New Hampshire, primarily because of turnout problems. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2016, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/152 "2016-01-27T22:29:41Z")
Can we list this one too? It implies a prediction about the GOP nomination and November too: > [@Marco Rubio presidential campaign discussion thread.](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/marco-rubio-presidential-campaign-discussion-thread/717685/234): > > John Kasich will be the greatest President of the post-war era. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2016, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/153 "2016-01-27T23:03:04Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Can we list this one too? It implies a prediction about the GOP nomination and November too: By that logic, he’s also predicting Clinton _and_ Rubio wins. So I’d say no, this is an implied hypothetical. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2016, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/154 "2016-01-27T23:45:35Z")
In less then a week we can start evaluating these predictions! I’m so excited! ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2016, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/155 "2016-01-27T23:50:41Z")
> [@](#): > > Originally Posted by adaher > John Kasich will be the greatest President of the post-war era. Which war? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2016, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/156 "2016-01-28T00:38:00Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Can we list this one too? I’m with Do Not Taunt that the entirety of the post implies hypothetical election not an implied prediction of who wins. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2016, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/157 "2016-01-28T04:44:25Z")
Yes, I am not predicting a Kasich victory. That was just me trying to boost the guy. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2016, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/158 "2016-01-28T22:38:28Z")
You have an extremely non-receptive audience here, don’t you know? If you want to campaign for the guy, go find some people who might be willing to vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2016, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/159 "2016-01-29T04:21:59Z")
Support for Kasich might be higher here than in the real world, actually. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/160 "2016-01-30T02:12:27Z")
Yes - here, he has a supporter. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=9)