# Adaher 2016 cycle election prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 18, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664 "2015-09-18T12:53:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/161 "2016-01-30T03:11:10Z")
On those “who would you vote for polls” he’s doing pretty well too. First place in this thread: > **[Pretend you are voting Republican (anonymously)](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=781903)** > > Which of these people would get your vote in the Primaries: Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Mike Huckabee John Kasich Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/162 "2016-01-30T21:15:05Z")
He is always behind “Any Democrat”, though. Tell us - how is Kasich attractive to you? Is it because he seems to be the most sane, the most responsible, the most Democrat-like of all the Republican candidates? Because there’s another entire party that’s even more so. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2016, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/163 "2016-01-30T22:41:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Support for Kasich might be higher here than in the real world, actually. Well he just got [the NYTimes endorsement](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/opinion/sunday/a-chance-to-reset-the-republican-race.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-top-region®ion=opinion-c-col-top-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-top-region) for the GOP nomination. Of course, I’m not sure if you will see that as a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2016, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/164 "2016-01-31T03:17:26Z")
I do. John McCain also got a lot of mainstream liberal press support in 2008, and he was my guy then. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/165 "2016-02-02T14:28:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > My early state primary predictions are final: > > Iowa- Sanders, Cruz, Rubio 3rd > New Hampshire- Sanders, Kasich, Rubio 2nd > South Carolina- Clinton, Cruz, Rubio 2nd > Nevada- Sanders, Rubio > > I include Rubio because I think it’s coming down to a 3-man race heading into Super Tuesday: Rubio-Cruz-Kasich. Trump will be irrelevant and won’t win a single state. > > In the Democratic race, Sanders and Clinton are going to be grinding for delegates for a long time as well. So far we have a very good prediction for the Iowa Republican caucus (good job **adaher**!) and a lost-by-a-hair prediction for the Iowa Democratic caucus (which Hillary seems to have barely won, by about .3%). Not a bad start! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/166 "2016-02-02T15:04:17Z")
Go job with the Iowa 'Pub side, but let’s see how New Hampshire goes. On the Republican side he has Kasich. On the Dem side he has a Bernie win inspiring a Democrat with a bigger name than Sanders to jump in the race. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/167 "2016-02-09T12:42:21Z")
Dixville Notch sees things the way I do. Let’s hope the rest of the state agrees. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/168 "2016-02-09T21:38:55Z")
Dixville Notch sees a Democrat with a bigger name than Sanders jumping into the race after today’s primary? Do you still stand by that prediction? Because in my mind that’s the one that always seemed more of a wish than an actual prediction. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2016, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/169 "2016-02-09T21:43:34Z")
That one looks unlikely at this point, but if Sanders wins Nevada and holy crap South Carolina, I don’t think the Democratic party is going to make peace with that outcome. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/170 "2016-02-10T01:02:55Z")
Trump wins, according to projections, as does Sanders. Seems a bit closer to the polls than Iowa. There’s a jumble at #2 through #5, with Kasich at #2 right now (with 4% in), but they’re all way behind Trump. Good job picking Sanders, bad job picking Kasich and Rubio, **adaher**. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/171 "2016-02-10T02:03:44Z")
Kasich finished second. I was hoping Trump would fall because of Iowa and thus leave Kasich as the likely beneficiary. He was, and he worked his ass off like no other candidate in New Hampshire, but Trump was just too resilient. I really don’t understand it, since Trump wasn’t doing the retail campaigning that NH voters expect. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/172 "2016-02-10T02:05:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Kasich finished second. I was hoping Trump would fall because of Iowa and thus leave Kasich as the likely beneficiary. He was, and he worked his ass off like no other candidate in New Hampshire, but Trump was just too resilient. I really don’t understand it, since Trump wasn’t doing the retail campaigning that NH voters expect. A close 2nd would have been one thing, but they’re all way, way behind Trump, so I don’t know how much of a moral victory anyone can claim. Rubio, it appears, may have a particularly disappointing showing (he’s at 5th right now), considering that many polls had him at #2. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/173 "2016-02-10T02:17:02Z")
Kasich claims momentum now because he’s the only establishment guy who has any at all. BTW, I need some advice. I placed a predictit bet on Kasich when he had a 3% chance of winning the nomination. He’s now at 13%, which has quadrupled my bet. Should I sell now, or do you think he can go higher? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/174 "2016-02-10T02:22:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Kasich claims momentum now because he’s the only establishment guy who has any at all. > > BTW, I need some advice. I placed a predictit bet on Kasich when he had a 3% chance of winning the nomination. He’s now at 13%, which has quadrupled my bet. Should I sell now, or do you think he can go higher? 3% was a good bet, I’m not sure about 13%. I really doubt he’ll do well in the next few states – either sell now, or hold it until the rust belt primaries. Assuming he wins OH, and possibly PA, then that might be the ideal time to sell (unless Trump and Cruz falter). ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/175 "2016-02-10T02:26:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Kasich finished second. I was hoping Trump would fall because of Iowa and thus leave Kasich as the likely beneficiary. He was, and he worked his ass off like no other candidate in New Hampshire, but Trump was just too resilient. I really don’t understand it, since Trump wasn’t doing the retail campaigning that NH voters expect. Because TRUMP, as I keep saying, has been the clear candidate of nationalism and the only one seriously opposing the power of global Capital. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/176 "2016-02-10T02:27:44Z")
Maybe. He and Bernie are definitely shaking things up, although Bernie’s doing the legwork too. I also got another prediction wrong: that Trump wouldn’t win a single primary. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/177 "2016-02-10T12:49:29Z")
Here’s the current tally of **adaher’s** predictions so far with regards to the first two states. Bolded predictions are correct: Iowa: 3 predictions made (Sanders wins, **Cruz wins, Rubio comes in 3rd** ) – 2 out of 3 correct. New Hampshire: 3 predictions made ( **Sanders wins** , Kasich wins, Rubio 2nd) – 1 out of 3 correct. Total through NH: 3 out of 6 correct. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/178 "2016-02-10T13:02:51Z")
One more prediction about NH that we can pretty clearly mark as wrong: > [@2016 Bernie Sanders (D-VT) campaign for POTUS thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/2016-bernie-sanders-d-vt-campaign-for-potus-thread/718754/150): > > I’m calling it now: Sanders wins NH, race thrown into turmoil, a big name candidate jumps in to “save the party”. Probably Liz Warren. The clamor for a viable Clinton alternative will be overwhelming at that point. Sanders can’t pull it off, but if he can win an early state against Clinton it shows that Clinton can’t either. We’ve known Sanders would win NH for at least a month, I think, so this isn’t a big surprise. NH is probably the best fit for Sanders in the country, aside from Vermont. Like Nate Silver, I don’t think Hillary is in much trouble at this point – she’s way ahead in SC, and limiting polling in Nevada also puts her far ahead. If this changes, then maybe she is in trouble, but no sign of this yet. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/179 "2016-02-10T13:09:00Z")
I don’t concede Iowa, and with good reason many Sanders supporters don’t either. Release the raw vote totals, DNC! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2016, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664/180 "2016-02-10T13:15:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t concede Iowa, and with good reason many Sanders supporters don’t either. Release the raw vote totals, DNC! 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/adaher-2016-cycle-election-prediction-thread/731664.md?page=10)