# Aeschines, Statistician Extraordinaire **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [April 30, 2023, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380 "2023-04-30T20:03:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/1 "2023-04-30T20:03:52Z")
> [@FiveThirtyEight.com decimated by Disney layoffs](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeight-com-decimated-by-disney-layoffs/983242/19): > > > [@FiveThirtyEight.com decimated by Disney layoffs](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/fivethirtyeight-com-decimated-by-disney-layoffs/983242/13): > > > > I lost my respect for Nate and 538 in 2016 when he had Hillary at like 95% to win not too long before the election. > > > > If you can be that wrong, your model is dogshit. > > Well, given that you are wrong (FiveThirtyEight projections never had anything near a 95% projection for Clinton, and [certainly not past November 2016 when it gave Trump a over 30% probabilty](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)) I’m sure you’ll retract the claim that the “model is dogshit”. Still looking for that retraction, chief. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/2 "2023-04-30T20:04:54Z")
Not participating. Have fun. Also, it’s pretentious to put “Stranger” at the end of every post you write. Stop that. We can see your user name. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/3 "2023-04-30T20:06:40Z")
My interest in your opinion on anything is tempered by what an vacuous mannequin you are. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/4 "2023-04-30T20:08:16Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > My interest in your opinion on anything is tempered by what an vacuous mannequin you are. But yo momma got that sweet machinery inside! ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/5 "2023-04-30T20:08:56Z")
Gotta say the “Not participating.” followed with an insult was a nice touch. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/6 "2023-04-30T20:16:05Z")
I’m not participating in talking about the topic at hand because I covered it in the other thread. **Stranger,** I don’t have the need to play the 100% invalidation game that’s the main sport here. I actually think that you are one of the smarter and more knowledgeable people on this site. Concerning covid, you have consistently been a source of edifying information and perceptive opinion. That said, you also are extremely pretentious and literally seem like someone with Asperger’s. And you are rather much a mean-spirited invalidating cunt. But in that, you are in good company on the Dope. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/7 "2023-04-30T20:41:10Z")
Eh, it’s classic internet behavior. Post something stupid and factually incorrect and then double and triple down. It eventually leads to links to articles or tweets they don’t understand, but they desperately hope supports some adjacent point to the original stupid one. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2023, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/8 "2023-04-30T20:42:17Z")
Paraphased: I don’t understand how probabilities work and despite Nate Silver repeatedly explaining to me how probabilities work, I didn’t listen. Therefore it’s his fault that I misunderstood how these things work. There for nobody should say one thing is more likely to happen than another thing because people like me will just assume that that means the first thing is guaranteed to happen. Also its Neil deGrasse Tyson’s fault that I think that the sun orbits the earth, and Julia Child’s fault that I thought that I thought that cooking my chicken at 150 degrees for 4 and a half hours was the same as cooking it for 450 degrees for an hour and a half. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/9 "2023-05-01T00:01:31Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I don’t have the need to play the 100% invalidation game that’s the main sport here. Oh this is good, this is right up there with “I’m not going to participate in a struggle session.” I have both of these bookmarked for when I make myself look like an absolute tool. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/10 "2023-05-01T00:27:00Z")
OK, the crux of the matter here seems to be if Nate Silver had Hillary Clinton at “like 95%” around election time. Why all the fighting? That should be easy enough to look up, huh? Someone look that shit up, please. I’ve been drinking. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/11 "2023-05-01T00:31:36Z")
@Aeschines should just stick to lazy gen-x, out-of-touch, sneering commentary on modern culture. That’s his sweet spot. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/12 "2023-05-01T00:38:04Z")
This place is filled with posters who absolutely refuse to admit they were wrong. I believe they all read from the same self-help book, one that preached that the admission of wrongness, however minor, diminishes you. Here’s the reality. Nobody will think less of you for acknowledging a mistake. Hopefully they will in fact think better of you. It’s getting a reputation, as the subject of this thread has, for never backing off from nonsense that has been thoroughly refuted that one should avoid at all costs. And for the rest of you, here’s a piece of wisdom I have painfully learned from twenty years here. If someone has repeated the same argument in the same words three times, the thread is over. Leave it go. Nothing will change. You are talking to a wall. The wall will always win because it’s your head that is taking the beating. ---
**Author:** ![DocCathode](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doccathode/32/18773_2.png) [@DocCathode](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DocCathode)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/13 "2023-05-01T00:42:39Z")
Stuff like that is why I respect you so much. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/14 "2023-05-01T00:54:48Z")
As always, much appreciated. ---
**Author:** ![Mundane\_Super\_Hero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mundane_super_hero/32/6304_2.png) [@Mundane\_Super\_Hero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mundane_Super_Hero)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/15 "2023-05-01T00:55:57Z")
It’s a pissing match. Taking bets on whose white sneakers will turn yellow first… even money… ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/16 "2023-05-01T01:58:48Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > This place is filled with posters who absolutely refuse to admit they were wrong. I don’t think it’s black-and-white whether I was wrong or not. But I will say this: I was not the right person to take on the anti-Silver position, since I just don’t know enough about statistics to go against the 20-odd people who were opposing me. Had I known it would be dogpile time, I wouldn’t have said anything. I wasn’t really in shape for the debate. And also regarding being wrong or right, the issues were complicated and multiple. So what does “admitting I was wrong” in that thread even consist of? That Nate Silver is fucking awesome? There are many who disagree, and I’m hardly the worst hater of the man. I’m not _even_ a hater. I supplied links to people more knowledgeable than I on the matter. How is that? Does that count as some sort of reasonable concession? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/17 "2023-05-01T01:59:38Z")
> [@Chingon](#): > > @Aeschines should just stick to lazy gen-x, out-of-touch, sneering commentary on modern culture. That’s his sweet spot. It’s sweet spot #2. Afta yo momma, hon. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/18 "2023-05-01T02:12:35Z")
LOL, did he get you off, or did you jerk yourself to completion? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/19 "2023-05-01T02:17:54Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I was not the right person to take on the anti-Silver position, since **I just don’t know enough about statistics** to go against the 20-odd people who were opposing me. The part I emphasized is the only relevant part. I just don’t know enough about statistics, either, which is why I didn’t take on Silver. It’s okay to not know much about a subject; you don’t have to sneer at experts in a subject because you’re pig-ignorant of it. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2023, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380/20 "2023-05-01T02:18:23Z")
But guys, thank you. This is officially a Pit fizzle, aka Pizzle. No energy. In the good (= bad) old days, this mighta been epic! We coulda had a _real_ dogpile with people getting into it, really putting energy into those punches and kicks to the face and groin. The OP himself is off wankin’ his rod somewhere, can’t even be assed to participate. Too bad. I was hoping for a rumble. So FSM bless you ALL, and may you ALL continue to be Great Lads online and IRL. Peace! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aeschines-statistician-extraordinaire/983380.md?page=2)