# Afghanistan Today **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 13, 2021, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624 "2021-08-13T18:38:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/1 "2021-08-13T18:38:06Z")
It takes something fairly big in world news to make the local news here. They say that the Taliban has captured four provincial capitals and Afghanistan will fall within a few days. I know several brave Canadian soldiers who fought in Kandahar for long periods, and who helped build schools thinking they were establishing stability and democracy. I bet they are having a tough time with this. My questions: 1. Does this issue have a personal connection to anyone? 2. What does it mean, locally and globally, for the military and for future stability? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/2 "2021-08-13T18:41:30Z")
I suspect that those in the military who spent time there will say that they could have predicted it would go this way. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/3 "2021-08-13T18:43:45Z")
I see that China have tried to open relations with the Taliban. It seems to me that Chinas actions toward the Uighurs are just the kind of thing that the Taliban might want to attack through terror. This will just destabilize the rgion and put the population of Afghanistan right back into the 14th century. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/4 "2021-08-13T18:45:28Z")
The US will lose its influence over territory that has economic and strategic value. Conversely, China, Russia, and Iran stand to gain more influence, which can be both a blessing and a curse. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/5 "2021-08-13T18:52:22Z")
At this point, it’s hard to see the eventual collapse of the Afghan government as anything but inevitable - despite Biden bragging a few days ago that he had “great confidence” in the abilities of the Afghan government and military. As for your 2 question, I guess it would all come down to whether the Taliban decides to host another terrorist group like al-Qaeda. I think they would not want to anymore. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/6 "2021-08-13T18:52:57Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The US will lose its influence over territory that has economic and strategic value. What is the economic and strategic value of Afghanistan to the US? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/7 "2021-08-13T18:57:41Z")
I recently saw an interview with the author of this new book: [The American War In Afghanistan](https://www.amazon.com/American-War-Afghanistan-History/dp/0197550770) He seemed very intelligent, informed and honest about evaluating the policy mistakes made at various stages of US military and diplomatic involvement. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/8 "2021-08-13T18:58:08Z")
I don’t pretend to know all of the minerals and resources that can be extracted from Afghanistan, but the US has tried to build a pipeline there since the 90s. There were negotiations with the Taliban within months of 9/11. The US didn’t initially regard the Taliban as an enemy regime; we just wanted them to stop hosting Al Qaida. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/9 "2021-08-13T19:04:09Z")
Iran will have little influence in Afghanistan because they are Shia and the Taliban are Sunni with ties to Saudi Arabia. China and Russia will also have little influence because they are not Muslim states. It will benefit the Sunni in their war with the Shia for control of the Islamic world. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/10 "2021-08-13T19:05:35Z")
Correct on all accounts - I guess what I meant was that there will be more involvement/engagement, but ‘influence’ was probably not the best choice of words. There’s the potential for national security risks for all three countries involved. Unlike the US, I doubt Russia and China would try their hand at nation-building; they’d be more inclined to go full-on Ghengis Khan if they thought it would suit their interests. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/11 "2021-08-13T19:05:36Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > There were negotiations with the Taliban within months of 9/11. The US didn’t initially regard the Taliban as an enemy regime; we just wanted them to stop hosting Al Qaida. I have not yet read the book I linked above, but the author addressed that point specifically in his interview and said that the US did the exact opposite of what you suggest. The Taliban came to the US in 2001 to negotiate and the [Bush Administration rejected them outright, including their offer to hand over Osama Bin Laden](http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/10/07/ret.us.taliban/). ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/12 "2021-08-13T19:09:08Z")
The Taliban are a weird bunch. Im not really sure they match up with anyone. They seem to want to go back hundreds of years in time. Im sure the Pakistanis in power arent too pleased because Afghanistan can be a base of operations for opposition groups. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/13 "2021-08-13T19:11:29Z")
But it seems like it was Pakistan’s military that helped the Taliban. It’ll be interesting to see if ISIS, which is a transnational militia, can reconstitute itself and challenge the Taliban. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/14 "2021-08-13T19:12:05Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Unlike the US, I doubt Russia and China would try their hand at nation-building; they’d be more inclined to go full-on Ghengis Khan if they thought it would suit their interests. China won’t repeat Russia’s and America’s mistakes. If they decide they have interest in whatever natural resources are in Afghanistan, China will establish trade and buy rights directly from whichever tribe(s) controls the resources in question. China will have zero qualms about supplying weapons to help secure those trade agreements. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/15 "2021-08-13T19:12:26Z")
I agree. It will be interesting times for foreign policy wonks. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/16 "2021-08-13T19:15:59Z")
Background. For those who desire background. (Do not know how accessible these articles are to non-subscribers. Sorry.) > **[Mass Afghan government surrenders as Taliban fighters overrun three key...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/13/afghanistan-taliban-advance/)** > > The seizures mark the biggest victories yet for the militants, who now control more than a dozen of the country’s provincial capitals and are closing in on Kabul. > **[‘Why did my friend get blown up? For what?’: Afghanistan war veterans...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/13/afghanistan-veterans-war-taliban/)** > > Veterans across the world are voicing frustration over the Taliban’s faster-than-expected comeback. > **[Biden has wanted the U.S. to pull the plug on Afghanistan for years. Doing it...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-afghan-pullout-taliban/2021/08/13/73837d0a-fb98-11eb-943a-c5cf30d50e6a_story.html)** > > The president relied on instinct and experience in ordering U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. But the Taliban’s rapid onslaught could sour Americans’ views of the pullout. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/17 "2021-08-13T19:16:33Z")
I disagree. China and Afghanistan share a border small that it is. The arms China supplies to Afghan tribes can easily be redirected to guerilla groups in Xinjiang. Chinese arrogance can easily lead them to be drawn into a conflict that might be worse than the Soviet/NATO adventures. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/18 "2021-08-13T19:20:09Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Background. For those who desire background. Actually for better background see: > **[First Anglo-Afghan War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Anglo-Afghan_War)** > > Barakzai Afghan victory >  British Empire > Supported By: > **[Soviet–Afghan War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War)** > > The Soviet–Afghan War was a protracted armed conflict fought in the Soviet-controlled Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) from 1979 to 1989. The war was a major conflict of the Cold War as it saw extensive fighting between the DRA, the Soviet Union and allied paramilitary groups against the Afghan mujahideen and their allied foreign fighters. While the mujahideen were backed by various countries and organizations, the majority of their support came from Pakistan, the United States (as pa... American politicians should have known it would be crazy to intervene in Afghanistan. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/19 "2021-08-13T19:25:17Z")
It remains to be seen if China even expresses an interest in Afghanistan’s natural resources. But if they do, I don’t think they will resort to invasion forces as suggested by **Asahi**. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2021, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624/20 "2021-08-13T19:27:21Z")
Agreed. But you said that China wont hesitate to arm factions in Afghanistan. This would be dangerous and could have unexpected consequences. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-today/948624.md?page=2)