# Afghanistan: What the hell do we do now? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 21, 2017, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289 "2017-08-21T16:39:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/101 "2017-08-23T02:34:15Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > Honestly **Ramira** I have no idea what you are railing against. > Besides Bagram there is are bases in Azerbaijan, in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan and Turkey. > Yes Iran is surrounded. There are no bases in Saudi Arabia; you’re getting KSA confused with Qatar, which is locked in a bitter dispute with the Kingdom and is now getting ostensibly greater support from Iran and Turkey (at a time when Donald Trump decidedly sided with KSA). And let’s not forget that Turkey is rapidly souring on relations with the US and is taking a stand against Saudi Arabia in its spat with Qatar. Iran has clients and proxies all throughout the Mid East, but the ones that will cause the most disruption are in the Eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and to a lesser degree, Qatar and Syria. Iran has a lot more leverage than what you might assume. And the US is in no position to use Bagram as a lunching pad in a war against Iran. That’s a war that would have an immediate economic and diplomatic sting. Tehran has been using its proxies against US forces for decades and yet the US has never responded with much more than strong words, podium pounding, and economic sanctions. There’s a reason for that. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/102 "2017-08-23T02:50:59Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > It’s possible **Ramira** is “railing” against the idea that the main purpose of our on-going military involvement in Afghanistan is to provide another platform to bomb Iran. What’s the reason to bomb Iran again? To take over that country and build air bases for the next time we need to bomb Iraq again? :smack: Who ever suggested it was the “main” purpose? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/103 "2017-08-23T03:25:08Z")
I have highlighted relevant parts of the following suggestion: > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The **only** “calculated strategic advantage” I can think of is that we get **to maintain airbases that are relatively close to Iran** , and perhaps the missions with live ordnance to keep skills sharp, but Syria is providing us plenty of that too. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/104 "2017-08-23T03:32:25Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > I have a news flash for you: it’s not your business who runs Iran, and it never was. It’s not your place to choose what sort of government can be “allowed” to “exist” in other countries, whether those countries are in Europe, South America, the former Soviet space, or the Middle East. The comment you made above is a perfect example of everything that’s wrong with American foreign policy historically. > > For what it’s worth, Iran seems to take a much less expansionist approach to its ruling ideology than the western powers do, so I don’t even know what “international jihad” means in this context. Iran isn’t trying to convert Americans or Europeans to Shia Islam, and her only major Shia-related foreign policy objectives seem to be to further the interests of the Shia in countries where they’re already a majority or a very large minority. > > US intervention in Afghanistan was a mistake and the sooner we wash our hands of the place, the better. We don’t get to decide what government other countries have, but we do get to retaliate when they attack us, whether they use uniformed soldiers or terrorist proxies. Which we did in Afghanistan. And now we need to make sure the Taliban never take power again. If we ever do go to war in Iran, we’ll have the same goal. The mullahs can never rule again. We have the same rule for Germany and Japan. No Nazi rule in Germany, no military rule in Japan. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/105 "2017-08-23T04:19:37Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We don’t get to decide what government other countries have, but we do get to retaliate when they attack us, whether they use uniformed soldiers or terrorist proxies. Which we did in Afghanistan. And now we need to make sure the Taliban never take power again. > > If we ever do go to war in Iran, we’ll have the same goal. The mullahs can never rule again. We have the same rule for Germany and Japan. No Nazi rule in Germany, no military rule in Japan. Goose and gander? The U.S. attacked Iran without provocation in 1953. Would it be appropriate for Iran to wage war against us vowing that “Republicans can never rule U.S. again”? Or should we agree that the key guiding principle underlying your rhetoric is _Might Makes Right_ ? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/106 "2017-08-23T04:30:17Z")
The key guiding principle is when attacked, you retaliate. You don’t just cower and accept it because your country did something bad 65 years ago. Guilt ends where 300 marines die in a barracks bombings. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/107 "2017-08-23T05:16:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The key guiding principle is when attacked, you retaliate. You don’t just cower and accept it because your country did something bad 65 years ago. I chose the 65-year old example because it is so clear-cut and applied to the specific country you mentioned. Do you think we have to go back 65 years to find U.S. malfeasance worthy of “retaliation”? The U.S. destroyed the country of Iraq over a period of several years, and is a major contributor to Afghan gloom. We destroyed Nicaragua’s hopes, installed the despicable despot Pinochet in Chile and more recently helped ensure that Russia would be run by right-wing kleptocrats rather than embrace democracy. If other countries followed your prescription (and ignored the precept “Might makes right”) the U.S. would be under attack from many sides. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/108 "2017-08-23T06:01:48Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I have highlighted relevant parts of the following suggestion: And I said this too: > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m not claiming that _is_ the reason for staying. Your post was pondering if “there is some calculated strategic advantage to continuing to stay”. Those are a couple of options that come to mind. I’m just a civilian, with no particular insight into the minds of our leaders and their reasoning, but I pointed out a couple of possibilities that came to mind. and this: > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I suspect the driving motivation for Trump is probably something along the lines of “I campaigned on killing terrorists, and so we’re not going to quit killing them in Afghanistan. In fact, we’re going to kill more of them, and faster.” Did you read those posts? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/109 "2017-08-23T06:44:48Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Did you read those posts? I may have skimmed them. My initial comment was _not_ a reaction to _you_ specifically. It was a reaction to the fact that a thread asking about the reason for continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan turned into a discussion about the use of Afghanistan as a platform to attack _Iran_. It seemed such a bizarre twist for the thread to take that I commented on it. I certainly had no intention to “allocate blame” for the thread hijack. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![lonesome\_crow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a587f6/32.png) [@lonesome\_crow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lonesome_crow)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/110 "2017-08-23T06:57:04Z")
**Afghanistan: What the hell do we do now?** I think the U.S. should withdraw from Afghanistan immediately. I think the war in Afghanistan is murderous and highly destructive. Let the indigenous people of Afghanistan try and sort out their own problems. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/111 "2017-08-23T08:24:31Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > Honestly **Ramira** I have no idea what you are railing against. > Besides Bagram there is are bases in Azerbaijan, in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan and Turkey. > Yes Iran is surrounded. Errors many, like Qatar is not Saudi arabia, but “surrounded” like a bugs bunny like in a wile e coyote movie… Of course Turkey also helped you American surround Iraq in 2003… ah no in fact they refused to allow the use of the base or indeed any of their territory. so they would be so eager for Iran… Or Turkmenistan with their friend Putin. It is typical american superificialism to think a Turkmenistan or a Turkey will allow contrary to their national interests an attack on the Iran and for the Central Asians and the Caucauses, directly irritate and even directly provoke their Russian neighbor, the permanent presence unlike the come and go barely remember history americans. But that I responded to was the silly simplistic idea that a base in the unstable Afghanistan long from the easy resupply is some great advantage - as AK84 highlighted himself. Of course the Americans of a certain political tendency think that like in an action movie or a video game you just decide. > [@septimus](#): > > It’s possible **Ramira** is “railing” against the idea that the main purpose of our on-going military involvement in Afghanistan is to provide another platform to bomb Iran. What’s the reason to bomb Iran again? To take over that country and build air bases for the next time we need to bomb Iraq again? :smack: Not even main purpose, a useful purposes as if 1 : the host country has no say in the usages of bases (they do and they do block, voir Turkey 2003) 2 : the usage would not require the specific supply and this would not be put at risk (the transport of the heavy needs across land, both Pakistan and Afghanistan) 3 : even if the Americans blundered ahead with or without approval, the usage of the base against the Iran would not provoke wider hostility among the tacitly “pro american” (the Afghan shia), losing yet more That is why I called it the typical American action movie thinking, their posts are pure Americans decide à la “action movie” and there is no other consequences (and of course the bombing succeeds in the movie time frame so there is not a second order need… and no consequences are thought of. It is pure action movie thinking ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/112 "2017-08-23T08:27:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The key guiding principle is when attacked, you retaliate. You don’t just cower and accept it because your country did something bad 65 years ago. so think also the Afghans. And they are many more than you in Afghanistan. So your wonderful king Pyrrhus thinking will be so successful. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/113 "2017-08-23T08:57:39Z")
> [@Ramira](#): > > Of course the Americans of a certain political tendency think that like in an action movie or a video game you just decide. I’m not an American with a certain political tendency. I think the ‘Project for the new American century’ is still in progress and that invasion of Iran is still on the table. Whether it is a bad or childish idea or not. This is a long term game, and maybe not going entirely to plan, temporary sensitivities of the countries involved play a lesser role than having the infrastructure for a future invasion in place. When the time comes and the drums start beating the ‘allies’ will comply. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/114 "2017-08-23T09:51:09Z")
Temporary sensitivies… Kha. Permanent. The americans have the attention span of the small children, but the countries in question, they have to live permanently with their neighbors, the Russians, the Iranians - and the incompetence of the long-term management by the americans of the Iraq gives everyone the lesson about the worth of their planning. the allies will comply assertion, it worked very well with Turkey in 2003. No, in fact not at all. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/115 "2017-08-23T10:36:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If we ever do go to war in Iran, we’ll have the same goal. The mullahs can never rule again. We have the same rule for Germany and Japan. No Nazi rule in Germany, no military rule in Japan. If we ever go to war with Iran, it would end up being a disaster of epic proportions. As in the case of North Korea, “winning” would only come at a tremendously high price, and there are so many different possible adverse outcomes that winning doesn’t seem likely. Almost every credible foreign policy and defense think tank believes it’s a terrible idea. Every American administration, whether they will admit it publicly or not, thinks it would be a disastrous idea, as evidenced by the fact that they haven’t done it despite decades of talking about it. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/116 "2017-08-23T10:48:32Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > I’m not an American with a certain political tendency. > > I think the ‘Project for the new American century’ is still in progress and that invasion of Iran is still on the table. Whether it is a bad or childish idea or not. > > This is a long term game, and maybe not going entirely to plan, temporary sensitivities of the countries involved play a lesser role than having the infrastructure for a future invasion in place. > > **When the time comes and the drums start beating the ‘allies’ will comply**. Some allies might ‘comply’ because they think there’s something in it for them. Saudi Arabia might ‘comply’, but seeing as they don’t even allow the United States military on their soil, I’m not sure that I see much value in their participation. It’s Qatar, not Saudi Arabia, that actually hosts the United States armed forces, but the United States sided with KSA in its dispute with Qatar, and guess which country Qatar has strengthened economic and political ties with in recent months? Why would Qatar ‘comply’ if the US wanted to bomb Iran using Qatar’s air base? What does Qatar get out of it? Again, think about this. The US sides with KSA, which doesn’t even allow US troops, and the US under Trump takes a firm position against Qatar, which does. How utterly fucking stupid is that? And you think Qatar is going to ‘comply’ if the US wants to bomb its ally? It’s Turkey that is a NATO ally, yes, but as was already pointed out to you, Turkey’s interests in the region is complex and takes many forms, and they do not neatly coincide with the US. Ramira already pointed out to you that Turkey refused to allow Turkish air space to be used to attack Iraq. Why? Because they didn’t want a humanitarian crisis on their doorstep and they didn’t want Kurds to get the idea of nation statehood. Any attack on Iran is going to evoke similar feelings. Turkey is not going to ‘comply’ either. The United States would be almost entirely on its own on this one, and no amount of land and airspace in Afghanistan is going to make tackling Iran any easier, especially at a time when it’s struggling to achieve its aims in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. What would be gained? Creating more fertile ground for terrorists? ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/117 "2017-08-23T13:29:43Z")
As the list asserted included the Saudi, I have just been looking and it appears there is no US base in the Turkmenistan, only a permission for the refueling stops for the purpose of the transit to Afghanistan. In any case, although the action movie type analysis thikns a marker on the map = all freedom, relative to the reflecting on the realities of the Afghan case, all basing agreemnts or transit agreements give the approvals to the host country for the parameters of the usage - and the host countries can and do say no as the Turkey did to the Americans for all uses of the existing bases in 2003. The Afghan interest can not be to gratitiously throw oil on the burning fires, and antagonize its own Shia population which are among the most solid supporters against the Talebans. The analysis of the Afghan situation here has mostly been of the action movie type, without any reality of the logistics and the risks. The americans would be smarter for the Afghanistan to open the negotiations with the elements of the Talebans and leave on a client state basis to some kind of the unity government. They would have been even smarter to play the realpolitik and have made the common cause with the Iran but it is clear the WWII Action Movie thinking is too dominant ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/118 "2017-08-23T13:46:41Z")
Also it seems to be the case there is no base in Azerbaijan, for the factual record, only the accord to allow the refueling for the transit to the Afghanistan. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/119 "2017-08-23T16:12:20Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I chose the 65-year old example because it is so clear-cut and applied to the specific country you mentioned. Do you think we have to go back 65 years to find U.S. malfeasance worthy of “retaliation”? The U.S. destroyed the country of Iraq over a period of several years, and is a major contributor to Afghan gloom. We destroyed Nicaragua’s hopes, installed the despicable despot Pinochet in Chile and more recently helped ensure that Russia would be run by right-wing kleptocrats rather than embrace democracy. > > If other countries followed your prescription (and ignored the precept “Might makes right”) the U.S. would be under attack from many sides. Minor nitpick, but we helped ensure that Russia would be run by right-wing kleptocrats rather than by a renovated Communist Party or by a nationalist. Democracy was never a realistic option. (I think what we did was very bad, to be clear, and that rule by Zyuganov & company would be a lot better than what Russia has today, but I think it’s extremely unlikely that Russia was ever going to turn into Germany or France). The situation in Chile was certainly exacerbated and supported enthusiastically by America, but in the last analysis Allende was overthrown by the Chilean right with the connivance of the center. Describing the events of 1973 as ‘made in america’ removes agency from the Chilean people involved on all sides. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2017, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289/120 "2017-08-23T16:36:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I’m a Hillary voter myself but foreign policy ideas were questionable, and that’s probably putting it gently. In reality, the problem that would have faced any of the 20+ candidates is how American foreign policy handles pursuing its naked economic and political ambitions in a fast-changing world in which it increasingly has to share power with others, including with some it may consider rivals and competitors. You can’t escalate and deescalate at the same time. Something has to give. The McMasters and Mattis’ of the world are working Trump, convincing him that they can find some sort of “peace with honor” (or peace with whatever) solution. This is why I’ve taken a wait-and-see attitude toward Trump’s foreign policy. There’s at least the opportunity for him to do some good. Now do I predict that he will turn out to be a good foreign policy president? No, and he could be a mega-disaster. But at least the opportunity exists in some areas. So, on the one hand, we have pure hypotheticals, and on the other we have…oh, let’s see…president Dilbert doing his damnedest to alienate as many NATO allies as possible, with Tillerson scurrying behind him trying to clean up the shitpiles…taunting NK at every opportunity, this time with Tillerson and Mattis speaking out…dancing around China with vague threats about a trade war…the Qatar debacle. Oh yeah, great foreign policy. Good cop, idiot cop. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/afghanistan-what-the-hell-do-we-do-now/794289.md?page=7)