Syria was very recent.
The last thing I read said that Iran will not allow inspection of its military-controlled enrichment facilities-is this true? sounds like the "framework’ isn’t very useful (if this is factual).
Any claim that their attack stopped a Syrian nuclear weapons program in its tracks is rather self-serving and dubious.
The truth is that we don’t seem to have any evidence of “military-controlled enrichment facilities.” The centrifuges that everyone talks about (around 19,000 or so) are at non-military sites.
So if Iran has secret enrichment sites, whether they are at military or civilian installations, they have to be disclosed and inspected or they would be in violation of the agreement. If there are no nuclear sites at military facilities, then we wouldn’t have a basis to inspect them anyway, no more than Russian nuclear weapons verification visits can demand access to Area 51 or whatever.
You seem to be ignoring several other military actions they’ve taken.
Might we take a moment to examine some of the ground assumptions here? Numero uno, Iran having a nuclear weapon is the end of Western Civ, dogs and cats living togehter…no, worse, gay dogs and cats living together, madness, insanity and death. No expenditure of blood and treasure is too dear to prevent such an apocalyptic certainty.
Oh? Sounds vaguely familiar. Weren’t some of the very same people making the same dire warnings about North Korea? Not India or Pakistan, of course, those countries are ruled by sensible and reasonable people, so no sweat there, but North Korea? First thing they would do is assemble the bomb and pass it along a human chain to the border with South Korea and fling it across! AAAiiieeee! Because they are crazy!
And Iran is even crazier, they believe some invisible sky fairy will join them in battle to wipe out the infidel. They are much, much crazier and warlike than nuclear Israel, under the pacific and restrained leadership of Bibi N., second only to Gandhi in his nonviolence. They are not to be trusted, they are insane, utterly unlike reasonable and rational India, Pakistan, Israel and N. Korea.
Well, if they are so crazy, what are they doing at the negotiating table? If they are so certain that God Almighty will settle things for them, why wait for anything so secular as an A-bomb?
If they build it, what’s the first thing they have to do? Send it to Jerusalem by Fed-Ex? No, the first thing they have to do is test it. You don’t want to start World War III by pulling the trigger and having a flag pop out that says “BANG!”. Ooopsy-daisy! Real hard to hide a successful A-bomb test. Real hard.
So they must not only build one, but several. And the test would be a major giveaway. But, OK, lets say all that, they have several! Cue end of the world, immediate nuclear attack on Israel!
Excuse me, but how, exactly? Fed Ex it? Load it onto their stealth strategic bomber B-52? They don’t even have B-24! Evade both Israeli and American air defense? Who is so dumb as to bet on that? Go look at your map, see Israel here? See Iran, waaaaay the hell over there? They are going to* sneak* it? Seriously?
Might need to take some time learning how to make the smallish sort of A-bomb, that they can mount on their mid-range, highly accurate missiles. Which they also do not have. What, a couple weeks? And then they have to test* that!*
And it is this dreadful scenario that we must be willing to sacrifice American blood and treasure, and untold thousands of Iranian lives…innocent Iranian lives, let it be noted. Because Bibi Netanyahu thinks its a good idea? Because hard headed and realistic men like McCain, Graham, and John “Yosemite Sam” Bolton think so?
I’ve seen their ways too often for my liking. And I’m sick to death of people using my flag to mop up innocent blood.
You don’t really care to learn about anything before posting about it. Ever. Those missiles can easily carry nuclear weapons. They are not “smallish”.
And about testing - with modern computers, you don’t really need to test in real life. It is better to, but you don’t need to. Israel never did.
From your link: “The Sajjil-2, which is unlikely to become operational before 2012, is the most likely nuclear delivery vehicle—if Iran decides to develop an atomic bomb. But it would need to build a bomb small enough to fit on the top of this missile, which would be a major challenge.”
Again, your link, not mine.
Not a big challenge, if you don’t care much about how dirty the bomb is. Iranian ballistic missiles can carry up to 1500kg payload. Building a nuclear bomb of this weight is not a big deal.
Tell me more about the relationship between the “dirtiness” of the bomb and how you integrate it on a medium range missile. How did you learn so much about such a technical topic?
Of indirect interest, this article from Politico magazine about how Israel developed its nuclear arms program. In broad outlines, it comports with other things I have read, but since I cannot claim any authoritative expertise, I cannot deign for its accuracy.
Note the colors on a lot of those sub-1000kg weapons. They were developed in 1940s-1950s. They would be much easier to manufacture with modern technology.
As for dirtyness - it’s the question of precision of machining and of precision of detonation. If you don’t care how dirty it is, both of those can be much less, thus less technological sophistication is required. You wouldn’t get as much of an explosion, but you would still get a nuclear explosion. Of course, that is if you’re talking about a dirty fission bomb.
If you’re talking about a non-fission dirty nuclear bomb, that’s even easier. All you need is a lot of conventional explosive and a relatively small amount of radioactive material. You don’t even have to have “weaponized”-level radioactive materials. Spent nuclear reactor rods will do.
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You’re confusing me here. Let’s clarify terms. Atomic = fission bomb. Implosion or gun style. Whatever. Little Boy. Two pieces of U235 brought together fast enough.
Nuclear = fusion bomb. Probably fission-fusion-fission. Fusion has to be involved at some point though. U235 alone won’t do it anymore, at this point you actually need plutonium.
So, apropos of your post, an atomic bomb small enough to fit on a missile of that payload is a firecracker relatively speaking. Certainly not something they would drop on Israel and risk the inevitable counterstrike.
More than 1 Megaton is a firecracker? (like US weapons MK-28, W-49, W-28, MK-43 etc. - all built with 1950s technologies). That’s 80+ times more than the Hiroshima bomb. And all those under 1000kg.
Terr, you’ve said several times that integrating a warhead on a missile is very easy. But this all started when you cited an expert who said it would be hard. That expert has a physics degree, worked for Lockheed on nuclear and missile programs for a few decades, helped DOD eliminate Soviet nuclear weapons, and was a WMD inspector. That’s a very impressive resume.
So he says that it isn’t easy to put a warhead on a missile, but you say it is. Why are you right and the expert you found and cited wrong?
Also, you keep bringing up the development of fusion weapons. Do you believe Iran has an active program to build a fusion weapon? North Korea has had three nuclear tests; how many do you think were of fusion weapons? How many of those weapons did India and Pakistan test?
Of course you cannot. Israel does not have nuclear weapons and you can’t prove that they do.
Please, for the love of Oppenheimer, get your terminology straight.
A bomb built solely out of enriched uranium is a FISSION weapon. It explodes by splitting atoms. It has a maximum yield of around 500KT, but that weapon certainly ain’t under 1000kg. You might could increase the yield a bit with a boosted core and 2 point implosion, but that’s something you’d want to test. It’s not easy.
The weapons you’re pointing out are all FUSION weapons (technically a mix of Fission-Fusion and Fission-Fusion-Fission). They get most of their explosion by pushing atoms together. Interestingly though, they actually contain a small fission weapon that is used to provide the energy to start the fusion process. However, these fission weapons are generally much smaller in yield. Building one of these requires a whole host of technologies that, AFAIK, the Iranians have shown little interest in pursuing, certainly aren’t within a few months of having, and absolutely would require significant testing or expert help to achieve.
I was wondering this. Turns out Wikipedia has a decent article. The US, UK, France, Russia, and China all managed to develop a thermonuclear bomb. Although there isn’t much known about France and once the UK proved they could do it the US started giving them the Mk 28 warhead. So, let’s see: The US did it first, the Soviets did it next, the Brits had “help” from the US from the start, the Chinese did it the fastest (from fission to fusion), and France is known to have tested a 2.6 megaton device. It’s questionable whether or not the Indians actually managed to pull it off, the Pakistanis apparently haven’t tried, and if the North Koreans are trying nothing has happened yet. The Israelis, as always, refuse to say but I’d put my money on them at least building one even if they haven’t tested any.
OK, its coming into focus now. Iran is batshit crazy, and will start a suicidal war, a war they cannot win and will lose in a spectacular fashion. Unless Allah intervenes. So, Iran is going to start such a war, because Allah will intervene.
But Allah has apparently advised that He will not intervene unless the war is started with atomic weapons. (The ways of Allah are mysterious). Apparently, the size and power of the weapon is not so important, only that atomic fission must be somehow involved. Otherwise, the Iranians could already have started the party with a more or less ordinary explosive weapon.
So, the negotiators who they send are duplicitous in the extreme, merely angling to “pocket” some concessions. Concessions that, apparently, cannot be rescinded on the basis of non-compliance, permanent concessions, no take backs. Got it. Or, the negotiators are sincere, but duped by the God-mad mullahs. Whatever.
At any rate, they are buying time because they don’t want to launch their kamikaze war until they can lose with nukes. Then, once they have the bomb, they won’t bother to test it, because Allah will ensure the proper and correct detonation. He’s done the math, hell, He invented the math! Oppenheimer got nothing on Allah!
Well, that’s all cleared up then!