# Airliner shot down over Ukraine - what happens next? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 17, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397 "2014-07-17T20:14:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/181 "2014-07-23T16:28:48Z")
My thinking is Putin wants to force concessions without the full blown political and monetary costs of an annexation. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/182 "2014-07-23T17:21:45Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Mexico lost a large proportion of its territory to the US in the 1840s. > > And why are you ignoring the states are _near_ to the United States but not technically continuous? America has behaved like a prototypical playground bully towards Cuba, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and other countries that are more broadly in its neighborhood, during the Cold War era and since. Not sure what you mean by “near.” Central and South America are pretty far away actually. Anyway, what other nations do or have done doesn’t excuse Russia’s current behavior. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/183 "2014-07-23T18:05:58Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > What’s wrong with Belarus as an example? [This.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) > [@](#): > > … . . According to some organizations and countries opposed to Alexander Lukashenko, elections have been unfair, and political opponents have been violently suppressed.[14][15][16] . . Belarus’ Democracy Index rating continuously ranks the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as “Not Free” by Freedom House, “Repressed” in the Index of Economic Freedom, and is rated as by far the worst country for press freedom in Europe in the 2013-14 Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders, where Belarus is ranked 157th out of an overall total of 180 nations.[17] For these reasons, the country is referred to as the “Last Dictatorship in Europe” by The Guardian.[18] No wonder Lukashenko gets along so well with Putin. ---
**Author:** ![SmellMyWort](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SmellMyWort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmellMyWort)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/184 "2014-07-23T19:48:01Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > There wasn’t support for separation, necessarily, but there was certainly strong political division between the east and west, and Yanukovych was quite popular in the east. > > Also, the separatists are ‘about’ more than just Russian ethnonationalism, they have a strongly left wing economic platform, for example. This isn’t purely about ethnicity and language. So you think the proper response is an armed conflict? ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/185 "2014-07-23T20:17:23Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > There wasn’t support for separation, necessarily, but there was certainly strong political division between the east and west, and Yanukovych was quite popular in the east. > > Also, the separatists are ‘about’ more than just Russian ethnonationalism, they have a strongly left wing economic platform, for example. This isn’t purely about ethnicity and language. Ukraine got totally fucked by a _Russian_ nuclear reactor that went tits up and devastated their national economy. Then they got fucked by corrupt thieving oligarchs and and a totally corrupt political system and they’re sick of it. Russian media propaganda keeps telling them, “it’ll be better with the same system but with us!” Same ol’, same ol’. Too bad Ukrainians would like to try the system that actually works, once they shake off the Russian system. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/186 "2014-07-23T21:11:08Z")
> [@opesdol\_opesdolovich](#): > > I’m somewhat surprised at the OP’s question…it’s like he hasn’t followed the events of the last 4 months or so…Here’s precisely what’s going to happen next (same thing that’s been happening again and again actually): > > 1. Europeans are going to kiss Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin’s ass. Now, they might argue about the terms of the kiss (“Would Mr. Putin mind squatting a bit lower, so that his behind is easier to reach? Would Mr. Putin mind spreading his butt-cheeks a bit wider so that the kiss can be more firmly delivered?”), but kiss it they will. > 2. Obama is going to continue to huff and puff and make funny monkey noises. Vladimir Vladimirovich is going to continue to slap him silly. > 3. John Kerry is going to fly to the Hague (or Brussels, or Paris, or Geneva). Negotiations will be held. Joint communiques will be issued. Wolf Blitzer will look magnificent on CNN, covering the latest diplomatic developments. Accidentally, Wolf Blitzer’s magnificent look will be the only thing of any consequence out of the said negotiations. > > We all should feel privileged and lucky to watch Mr. Putin in action. A true master of realpolitik, the consummate ease with which he outplays his Western opponents is a joy to behold. This schtick belongs in The BBQ Pit. You are more than welcome to champion Mr. Putin or to challenge the actions of Mr. Obama or those in the West, however, your insistence on using the most obnoxious and insulting language when you do so is clearly an example of trolling. You were already told to refrain from using race-baiting language to describe Obama, so we now move on to a formal Warning for your “monkey noises” slur. Beyond that, you are now on notice that the rest of your silly insults are not appropriate outside The BBQ Pit. Knock it off. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/187 "2014-07-23T21:39:53Z")
> [@SmellMyWort](#): > > So you think the proper response is an armed conflict? I don’t know, is Kiev going to let them go their own way peacefully? ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/188 "2014-07-23T21:47:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [This.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) > > No wonder Lukashenko gets along so well with Putin. I’m entirely missing your point. I didn’t say Belarus was politically free, I said they had excellent relations with Russia (and I could add that Armenia has reasonably good relations with Russia as well). That was intended as a response to someone’s remark to the effect that ‘Russia’s neighbors don’t get along with her’. Clearly _some_ don’t, but some do. I’m not sure how Belarus’ internal political arrangements are relevant to that (though I would mention that Belarus has the fourth highest standard of living of all the former Soviet republics, and has the lowest level of economic inequality of all of them, and one of the lowest in the world. At least in some ways, they seem to be doing a lot better than the Ukrainians). ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/189 "2014-07-23T21:51:32Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > Ukraine got totally fucked by a _Russian_ nuclear reactor that went tits up and devastated their national economy. Then they got fucked by corrupt thieving oligarchs and and a totally corrupt political system and they’re sick of it. Russian media propaganda keeps telling them, “it’ll be better with the same system but with us!” > > Same ol’, same ol’. > > Too bad Ukrainians would like to try the system that actually works, once they shake off the Russian system. Belarus suffered much more from the Chernobyl disaster than though Ukraine did, and is actually probably the most pro-Russian of the former Soviet republics. And is by most measures doing better than the Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/190 "2014-07-23T22:20:31Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Belarus suffered much more from the Chernobyl disaster than though Ukraine did, and is actually probably the most pro-Russian of the former Soviet republics. And is by most measures doing better than the Ukraine. Are you saying nuclear disaster = prosperity??? ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/191 "2014-07-23T23:15:04Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Belarus suffered much more from the Chernobyl disaster than though Ukraine did, and is actually probably the most pro-Russian of the former Soviet republics. And is by most measures doing better than the Ukraine. You should work for the Nuclear Energy Institute. That’s almost as outlandish as their usual anti-renewable claims. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/192 "2014-07-23T23:34:31Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > Are you saying nuclear disaster = prosperity??? I’m saying that neither Chernobyl, nor Soviet domination, is a good excuse for the problems of Ukrainians today, nor is it a justification for them to piss and moan about the evil Russian bogeyman. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/193 "2014-07-23T23:44:15Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > I’m saying that neither Chernobyl, nor Soviet domination, is a good excuse for the problems of Ukrainians today, nor is it a justification for them to piss and moan about the evil Russian bogeyman. What is their excuse? Human fuck up? Let them fix that, thank you. They don’t need Russian dragging them down into fuckup-land. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/194 "2014-07-23T23:47:40Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > What is their excuse? Human fuck up? Let them fix that, thank you. They don’t need Russian dragging them down into fuckup-land. Russia is better off than the Ukraine, in terms of standard of living. As is the Russians’ ally, Belarus. If the New Russians break away and join Russia, they’ll be going from a poorer country to a richer one. Not quite ‘dragging them down’. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2014, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/195 "2014-07-23T23:59:14Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Russia is better off than the Ukraine, in terms of standard of living. As is the Russians’ ally, Belarus. If the New Russians break away and join Russia, they’ll be going from a poorer country to a richer one. Not quite ‘dragging them down’. Russia is “better off” because Europe buys their oil. They got nothing beyond that; they wouldn’t have that if the West didn’t give it to them. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2014, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/196 "2014-07-24T00:04:28Z")
Russia’s policy is to keep Ukraine unstable enough to make it impossible for them to join NATO. And it’s pretty easy for Putin to keep doing that. Every time the West threaten actions against Russia he withdraws a bit of support for the rebels. But as soon as the world loses a tiny bit of interest or is distracted by some other crisis a few months later Putin will put meddling fingers back into the pie and give the rebels a nice boost and the tools to keep going for a few more months or years. I imagine he can keep that up for quite a few years. All he wants remember is to keep NATO away from Russian borders. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2014, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/197 "2014-07-24T00:10:32Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Russia’s policy is to keep Ukraine unstable enough to make it impossible for them to join NATO. And it’s pretty easy for Putin to keep doing that. Every time the West threaten actions against Russia he withdraws a bit of support for the rebels. But as soon as the world loses a tiny bit of interest or is distracted by some other crisis a few months later Putin will put meddling fingers back into the pie and give the rebels a nice boost and the tools to keep going for a few more months or years. I imagine he can keep that up for quite a few years. All he wants remember is to keep NATO away from Russian borders. It all wouldn’t exist with Western largesse. Why do we support the existence of that ass? That’s what we need to get over. Russians pride themselves on deprivation. Maybe we should quit subsidizing them for a few decades until they get over their own “super power” pride issues? Nukes don’t equal super power. Olympics? World Cup? Whatever. Let’s quit pretending they’re more significant than Greeks. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2014, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/198 "2014-07-24T00:14:46Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Russia’s policy is to keep Ukraine unstable enough to make it impossible for them to join NATO. And it’s pretty easy for Putin to keep doing that. Every time the West threaten actions against Russia he withdraws a bit of support for the rebels. But as soon as the world loses a tiny bit of interest or is distracted by some other crisis a few months later Putin will put meddling fingers back into the pie and give the rebels a nice boost and the tools to keep going for a few more months or years. I imagine he can keep that up for quite a few years. All he wants remember is to keep NATO away from Russian borders. Eh, I don’t know. I don’t think Ukraine is remotely NATO material - russia or no russia. Only the U.S. is quite so pushy against Russia to take in the basketcases. The NATO members on the border know it’s a nonstarter. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2014, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/199 "2014-07-24T00:33:31Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Russia’s policy is to keep Ukraine unstable enough to make it impossible for them to join NATO. And it’s pretty easy for Putin to keep doing that. Every time the West threaten actions against Russia he withdraws a bit of support for the rebels. But as soon as the world loses a tiny bit of interest or is distracted by some other crisis a few months later Putin will put meddling fingers back into the pie and give the rebels a nice boost and the tools to keep going for a few more months or years. I imagine he can keep that up for quite a few years. All he wants remember is to keep NATO away from Russian borders. Whether or not the description of those dynamics is exactly right (and it probably is) it’s indisputably true that Putin wants Ukraine to be politically aligned with Russia, as part of the centuries-long ongoing Russian geopolitical hegemony in the entire region. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2014, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/200 "2014-07-24T01:24:50Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Eh, I don’t know. I don’t think Ukraine is remotely NATO material - russia or no russia. Only the U.S. is quite so pushy against Russia to take in the basketcases. The NATO members on the border know it’s a nonstarter. Doesn’t NATO membership require not having on-going border disputes and certain progress in human rights and economic non-idiocy? Ukraine’s got a bit of ways to go. All that’s left is a cold war proxy war with Russia but what’s really to be gained from it? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397.md?page=11)