# Airliner shot down over Ukraine - what happens next?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [July 17, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397 "2014-07-17T20:14:57Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/21 "2014-07-18T07:58:29Z")

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I’d think it difficult to park a 1st world missile launcher in or near public lands and launch a weapon without people noticing.

If I was the leader of a country that had citizens on the plane I’d deal with it outside normal channels in a way that would greatly discourage a repeat of what happened.

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**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/22 "2014-07-18T08:50:35Z")

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Such accidents have happened before. Mis-identifications of aircraft or missiles locking on to wrong targets many kilometres away. The last mistake was even done by the Ukrainian military recently.

Although not settled, it was probably the rebels this time. Russia should use it as an invitation to disengage and cut whatever ties it has to rebels in Eastern Ukraine without losing face. It could be an opportunity for both Russia and Ukraine for rapprochement.

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**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 9:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/23 "2014-07-18T09:05:29Z")

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Malaysia Airlines is going to have a hard time living this one down. Earned or not, such things stick for a long time, and I think they were already having financial problems.

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**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/24 "2014-07-18T10:15:15Z")

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To answer the OP… Sadly Nothing.

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**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/25 "2014-07-18T11:54:54Z")

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> [@Little\_Pig](#):
>
> To answer the OP… Sadly Nothing.

I disagree.

The President will make a speech. Perhaps even an _ill-tempered_ one.

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**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/26 "2014-07-18T12:11:34Z")

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I think little of substance will be said by either Russia or Ukraine authorities, but I think (hope?) this will have a sobering effect on both sides. Regardless of how various groups will try to spin this and how many fingers will be pointed in various directions, there is no way for either side to come out looking good after something like this.

Up until now this has been a regional conflict with only regional casualties. This tragedy has invited global attention like nothing else up until this point. Putin does not need or want this kind of attention. He certainly does not want to galvanize the west further against Russia’s interests.

I think this will calm things the fuck down for both sides in this conflict. Regardless of what noises are made to the media.

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**Author:** ![Darth\_Panda](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ee7513/32.png) [@Darth\_Panda](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Panda)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/27 "2014-07-18T13:12:49Z")

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> [@Johnny\_Cashless](#):
>
> like an unknown actor declaring war on Malaysian Airlines.

Jimmy Shubert?

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**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/28 "2014-07-18T13:33:58Z")

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What the blue hell was a commercial airliner doing flying over an active war zone?

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**Author:** ![CurtC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce73a5/32.png) [@CurtC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CurtC)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/29 "2014-07-18T13:39:54Z")

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It’s just too early for me to speculate on what really happened, so I am going to wait for Glenn Beck to tell me.

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**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/30 "2014-07-18T13:42:49Z")

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Last night’s news said that they were re-routed slightly due to thunderstorms. In retrospect turbulence would have been a better choice.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/31 "2014-07-18T13:44:47Z")

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> [@Velocity](#):
>
> I’m afraid it’ll just be sanctions and more sanctions.

Well, good; better sanctions than combat.

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**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/32 "2014-07-18T15:02:42Z")

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> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#):
>
> What the blue hell was a commercial airliner doing flying over an active war zone?

Commercial airliners fly over ISIS controlled parts of Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and Somalia, etc. because it is assumed the terrorists below don’t have the sophisticated weapons required to hit targets in 10km height. Not because they don’t think ISIS or Al Qaeda wouldn’t take a shot if they had the means.

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**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/33 "2014-07-18T18:25:09Z")

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Doesn’t seem like anyone hear has posted about this yet, but the [audio intercepts](http://nyti.ms/1rl9Z2s) seem to pretty clearly show that it was the separatists with close links to Russian military that mistakenly shot down the plane.

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_Cashless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ad7895/32.png) [@Johnny\_Cashless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Cashless)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/34 "2014-07-18T20:40:33Z")

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yep, almost certainly a dumb fuck knucklehead given a toy way above his pay grade.

Stupid, stupid fools.

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**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/35 "2014-07-18T21:15:46Z")

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> [@duality72](#):
>
> Doesn’t seem like anyone hear has posted about this yet, but the [audio intercepts](http://nyti.ms/1rl9Z2s) seem to pretty clearly show that it was the separatists with close links to Russian military that mistakenly shot down the plane.

This might be the basis of a US Defense Dept document which concludes that it was a Buk anti-aircraft missile fired by the pro-Russian separatist rebels. These missiles can apparently target aircraft as high as 80,000 ft. Apparently the document itself is classified but CNN reports that this was the conclusion. It is incontrovertible that it came from the eastern Ukraine area where the pro-Russian separatist rebels are operating, and that the Russians are providing them with this type of weaponry.

As a side note on this but far from incidental, a significant number of AIDS researchers were on board on their way to an AIDS conference in Australia. This has been said to be a staggering blow to AIDS research. And the one lone Canadian on board was a young medical student on holiday. Such terrible, terrible losses. I agree that nothing much is going to be done but I can’t imagine much that the west can really do.

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**Author:** ![Johnny\_Cashless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ad7895/32.png) [@Johnny\_Cashless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Cashless)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/36 "2014-07-18T21:30:51Z")

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Quite interesting background:

> **[Who, what, why: How often do planes fly over conflict zones?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-28364306)**
>
> Who decides where it's safe to fly?

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**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/37 "2014-07-18T21:31:43Z")

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> [@wolfpup](#):
>
> I agree that nothing much is going to be done but I can’t imagine much that the west can really do.

I think we had our window to do something, when Putin placed but didn’t acknowledge his men in the Crimean Peninsula. If we’d played along that they weren’t Russians, we could have driven them out, and demonstrated that we were serious about protecting national borders.

Now that the window is gone, increasing sanctions and finding ways to make Putin lose his upcoming election are the only options, but I don’t know how much impact we can have doing that.

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**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/38 "2014-07-18T21:37:38Z")

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> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> I think we had our window to do something, when Putin placed but didn’t acknowledge his men in the Crimean Peninsula. If we’d played along that they weren’t Russians, we could have driven them out, and demonstrated that we were serious about protecting national borders.

I have no idea how “we” (the EU, NATO, or the US) would have done that without astoundingly terrible consequences. But we already had a fairly drawn-out thread about the matter recently, so whatevs.

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**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/39 "2014-07-18T22:14:31Z")

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Which is why I say that I can’t think of what can be done, at least in the near term, other than more sanctions. But at least it can be duly noted for the future that this was perpetrated by murderous pro-Russian separatist terrorists with the full logistical support of Putin’s government. No doubt the idiots were unaware that it was a Malaysian plane, but it’s not much of a defense to say that they were just innocently sitting there in eastern Ukraine having themselves a nice terrorist uprising, wreaking havoc everywhere and firing Russian missiles at what they thought was a Ukrainian aircraft and boy were they surprised when it turned out that it wasn’t!

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2014, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/40 "2014-07-18T22:38:47Z")

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> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> I think we had our window to do something, when Putin placed but didn’t acknowledge his men in the Crimean Peninsula. If we’d played along that they weren’t Russians, we could have driven them out, and demonstrated that we were serious about protecting national borders.

There was **nothing** the West could have done that would not have made everything horribly worse.

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