# Airliner shot down over Ukraine - what happens next? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 17, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397 "2014-07-17T20:14:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2014, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/121 "2014-07-21T05:24:58Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > “x separatists” generally refers to extremist patriots of “x” who wish to declare independence from the parent body. So “Ukrainian separatists” makes no semantic sense and is misleading. > > If you want my suggestion for a label, you can call them “Russian-backed pro-Russian terrorists who support Putin’s strategy for Russian hegemony in the region that parallels the old Soviet Union”. If that’s too long for you, you can just call them “Russian assholes”. 🙂 Well, this is their political platform. Sounds pretty good, across the board, to me (especially the economics bit, but really all of it). > **[Novorossiya (confederation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_State_of_New_Russia#Government_and_politics)** > > Novorossiya or New Russia,\[a\] also referred to as the Union of People's Republics,\[b\] was a project for a confederation between the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) in Eastern Ukraine, both of which were under the control of pro-Russian separatists. > The concept of "Novorossiya" emerged in public discourse with the beginning of the Donbas war in eastern Ukraine. Referring to the historic Novorossiya, a former imperial Russian territory c... Yes, I think I’m going to go with ‘freedom fighters’, or if you will ‘heroes’, instead of ‘assholes’. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2014, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/122 "2014-07-21T06:41:59Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Well, this is their political platform. Sounds pretty good, across the board, to me (especially the economics bit, but really all of it). > > [Novorossiya (confederation) - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_State_of_New_Russia#Government_and_politics) > > Yes, I think I’m going to go with ‘freedom fighters’, or if you will ‘heroes’, instead of ‘assholes’. I’ll assume you also view Serbian separatists as “heroes” and “freedom fighters” as well. The people you call “freedom fighters” certainly do. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2014, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/123 "2014-07-21T06:49:10Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > I think both of them should have been punished, and if there arose a movement today demanding that Turkey make payments/territorial concessions to Armenia, I’d support it. > > I don’t think ‘accidentally shooting down a plane that passed over your airspace during a war’ is the same moral magnitude as genocide, though. These comments are not remotely consistent with your previous statements. You previously were arguing that Russia should be able to do bad things that Americans had done decades in the past, but now seem to have gone back on this. Ah well, I was hoping for intellectual consistency but shouldn’t be surprised. Admittedly, it’s not often I get a chance to talk to someone who thinks Radovan Karadzic and Slobodan Milosevic were “heroes” and “freedom fighters” which would be consistent with your views regarding Putin and Russian separatists. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2014, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/124 "2014-07-21T07:09:15Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Yes, I think I’m going to go with ‘freedom fighters’, or if you will ‘heroes’, instead of ‘assholes’. Excellent, glad to see you’re continuing a long tradition of taking exactly the wrong position on absolutely everything. Maybe your “heroes” can shoot down a few more passenger planes or start a few more civil wars on behalf of Russian empire building. :rolleyes: I recommend you try reading [Putin’s Wars: The Rise of Russia’s New Imperialism](http://www.amazon.com/Putins-Wars-Rise-Russias-Imperialism/dp/1442231378), a book which came out just before Putin’s annexation of Crimea and presciently foreshadowed the events that have come to pass. Russia is not like most other nations; its history of hegemony against its neighboring states is a centuries-old geopolitical process that didn’t change in the slightest after the collapse of the Soviet Union. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2014, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/125 "2014-07-21T10:33:01Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > A few points of correction/nitpicking since some of this seems to be drifting toward placing blame or equivalency on the Ukraine… > > Not at all a “parallel” as you claim in your other post. The Russian airliner was a case of a military exercise gone wrong, entirely an accident. I don’t make any distinction. Reckless, criminal neglect is barely one notch down from deliberate. and probably whoever shot this did it by ‘accident’ as they thought they were firing on a military aircraft. EDITED to add: which doesn’t exclude them one bit. I want to see them hanged. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2014, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/126 "2014-07-21T14:22:04Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > I don’t make any distinction. Reckless, criminal neglect is barely one notch down from deliberate. and probably whoever shot this did it by ‘accident’ as they thought they were firing on a military aircraft. > > EDITED to add: which doesn’t exclude them one bit. I want to see them hanged. That’s pretty extreme. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2014, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/127 "2014-07-21T15:30:34Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > That’s pretty extreme. Shooting down airliners seems pretty extreme also. Once you start looking into it, it’s a ‘whoops’ that seems to happen way too often. In this case the ‘separatists’ are little more than terrorists in the first place and should be treated as such. ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/128 "2014-07-22T00:16:04Z")
Well the [Malaysians now have](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/21/mh17-disaster-ukraine-obama-live-updates#block-53cd8ff5e4b012be69215b86)the Black boxes and the bodies are en route to Kharkiv. No ATC transcripts yet though. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/129 "2014-07-22T02:20:23Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Completely OT, but what would you be thinking if you were [Maarten de Jonge](http://abcnews.go.com/International/dutch-cyclist-avoids-tragedy-scheduled-doomed-flights/story?id=24632968)? The Dutch cyclist was booked on MH17 and switched his ticket at the last minute for a later flight. That kind of fortuitous narrow escape would be enough to turn a lot of people to religion. The thing was, Maarten was also booked on MH370 back in March, and cancelled **that one** at the last minute, too! I think he should learn how to make up his damned mind, pick a flight, and stick with it. ---
**Author:** ![Tabby\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Tabby\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabby_Cat)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/130 "2014-07-22T02:40:00Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Excellent, glad to see you’re continuing a long tradition of taking exactly the wrong position on absolutely everything. Maybe your “heroes” can shoot down a few more passenger planes or start a few more civil wars on behalf of Russian empire building. :rolleyes: > > I recommend you try reading [Putin’s Wars: The Rise of Russia’s New Imperialism](http://www.amazon.com/Putins-Wars-Rise-Russias-Imperialism/dp/1442231378), a book which came out just before Putin’s annexation of Crimea and presciently foreshadowed the events that have come to pass. Russia is not like most other nations; its history of hegemony against its neighboring states is a centuries-old geopolitical process that didn’t change in the slightest after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Something I haven’t really seen discussed here is that Russians by and large seem to be very happy about what Putin is doing. Approval ratings through the roof. Russians seem to want to annex their neighbours, thumb their noses at the west, etc. This seems to me to be the biggest problem. Putin is a man, but the Russian people seem to stand behind him. If Putin wasn’t around, someone else would rise up to take his place. Why? I can only think that Russia wants to be a world power again, and is showing its power in the most antagonistic way possible. How do you change Russian behaviour though? You can’t start WW3, and even if you did, even if you manage to bomb Russia back to the stone age without killing everyone on earth, Russia will come back in 20 years and do it again. USSR wasn’t so long ago. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/131 "2014-07-22T03:12:18Z")
> [@Tabby\_Cat](#): > > Something I haven’t really seen discussed here is that Russians by and large seem to be very happy about what Putin is doing. Approval ratings through the roof. Russians seem to want to annex their neighbours, thumb their noses at the west, etc. > > This seems to me to be the biggest problem. Putin is a man, but the Russian people seem to stand behind him. If Putin wasn’t around, someone else would rise up to take his place. Why? > > I can only think that Russia wants to be a world power again, and is showing its power in the most antagonistic way possible. > > How do you change Russian behaviour though? You can’t start WW3, and even if you did, even if you manage to bomb Russia back to the stone age without killing everyone on earth, Russia will come back in 20 years and do it again. USSR wasn’t so long ago. Gawd I hate to be the Godwin but that is the obvious parallel. The apeal to your “rightful place” in the world order resonates strongly in declining formerly more powerful societies. While someone else could appeal to that it is not a certainty that someone else would, or would play to it as well. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/132 "2014-07-22T04:15:06Z")
> [@lisiate](#): > > Well the [Malaysians now have](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/21/mh17-disaster-ukraine-obama-live-updates#block-53cd8ff5e4b012be69215b86)the Black boxes and the bodies are en route to Kharkiv. No ATC transcripts yet though. I seriously doubt there will be anything useful. The black box will say “We’re flying along… Blammo”. ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/133 "2014-07-22T06:48:05Z")
Many episodes of Air Crash Investigation have made me pretty impressed by what they can glean from the data. Maybe they can figure out which systems were destroyed first and derive a vector for the missile or something. ---
**Author:** ![Tabby\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Tabby\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabby_Cat)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/134 "2014-07-22T06:53:48Z")
I mean, so what? The plane went down where it went down, and the US has satelite images of the radar used by the missile on launch, when it hit, video of the damn things going into the country and leaving, what do you expect that the black box data will be able to say that is relevant? ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/135 "2014-07-22T07:35:26Z")
I’m gonna ask for a link to this satellite data of which you speak. ---
**Author:** ![Tabby\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Tabby\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabby_Cat)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/136 "2014-07-22T08:17:28Z")
My mistake. The newspaper reports were analyst fanwanking. > **[High-tech spycraft tracked missile's path to Malaysia Airlines jet](https://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-fg-satellites-ukraine-missile-20140717-story.html)** > > Advanced U.S. satellites played a key role in the determination by intelligence officials that a surface-to-air missile shot down a Malaysian jetliner over Ukraine on Thursday. I retract that statement, although I expect evidence of some sort to be produced soon. In other news, Russia has given a press conference purportedly showing a Ukrainian fighter plane in the area at the time of the crash. > **[Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/)** > > Insider tells the global tech, finance, markets, media, healthcare, and strategy stories you want to know. So far, no concrete assertions, apart from “Why was plane there? People have the right to know”. Maybe the black box data can help to tell apart a fighter jet missile and a SAM, but I doubt it. Evidence would probably come from the wreckage, if enough of it is still left there anyway. > **[Kerry: Evidence Points Clearly To Rebels Shooting Down MH17](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/07/20/333061052/pressure-grows-on-putin-to-secure-access-to-ukraine-crash-site)** > > The U.S. secretary of state says a mix of U.S. intelligence and social media reports "points a very clear finger at the separatists" having brought down the plane with a surface-to-air missile. Kerry has claimed video of SAMs and tanks going in/out of the country, but none of it has been released as of yet. I guess the Russians have that going for them, they’ve shown their evidence first. Kerry also stated that they know with confidence that Ukraine had no SAMs in the area, but Russia claims that Ukraine did, and has satellite evidence that there were Ukrainian SAMs there. Someone’s going to get egg on their face. ---
**Author:** ![Tabby\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Tabby\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabby_Cat)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/137 "2014-07-22T08:24:43Z")
> **[Malaysia Airlines MH17 crash: Evidence mounting of pro-Russian link to](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/malaysia-airlines-mh17-crash-evidence-mounting-of-prorussian-link-to-attack-9619885.html)** > > Social media offering vital clues into responsibility for outrage > [@](#): > > The missile flare and blast pattern > > Satellite imagery shows the smoke from the missile fired at MH17 rising from rebel-held territory between Torez and Snizhne, while pictures taken from the ground show the same plume rising vertically. Military experts suggest that the trajectory of the trail helps discount a launch from further away by Ukrainian government forces. > > Washington said its analysis of satellite pictures shows the missile was an SA-11 missile fired from a Buk-M1 launcher in separatist territory. I have not seen any satellite imagery released, so my retraction stands, but as you can see, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence as of now. Still, no sources quoted, no pictures released, so eh. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![lisiate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/f05b48/32.png) [@lisiate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lisiate)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/138 "2014-07-22T09:06:20Z")
And the information retrieved from the Black Box, which is much more than just the cockpit voice recorder, could be an important means of confirming that. Looking at [the map](https://www.google.co.nz/maps/place/MH+17+Crash+Site/@48.0963218,38.581169,12z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x40e0457cd9eb42b7:0xeeeb3ce74f8de1b9) the claimed launch site is SSW to SW of the crash site. The plane was heading SE so a missile strike from that site would likely be from the front starboard quadrant. Maybe the Black Box data could show whether systems in that area were destroyed first. Of course the destruction may have been so instantaneous that the Black Box data is inconclusive on this point. But it could be important. ---
**Author:** ![Bozuit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/edb3f5/32.png) [@Bozuit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bozuit)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/139 "2014-07-22T16:56:21Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Completely OT, but what would you be thinking if you were [Maarten de Jonge](http://abcnews.go.com/International/dutch-cyclist-avoids-tragedy-scheduled-doomed-flights/story?id=24632968)? The Dutch cyclist was booked on MH17 and switched his ticket at the last minute for a later flight. That kind of fortuitous narrow escape would be enough to turn a lot of people to religion. Only fools. What kind of intelligent person would look at either disaster and decide that it must be God that decided to kill a few hundred people but save them because they’re super special? And what kind of arsehole would believe this newly discovered god to be worth worshiping? ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2014, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397/140 "2014-07-22T17:44:53Z")
> [@Bozuit](#): > > Only fools… I think you were so quick to jump on some kind of anti-religion soapbox that you may not have read the rest of the post, and in any case missed the point of a humorous take on an amazing coincidence. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine-what-happens-next/693397.md?page=8)