Al Qaeda in Iraq: mutiplying like bread and fish?

Yes, it’s really fun to snigger and sneer, but Iraqi soldiers are dying in large numbers trying to pacify their country.

And if you notice, part of the reason the strategy was changed was precisely because it was recognized that the old strategy wasn’t working - the Iraqis simply weren’t ready to handle a full-scale insurgency. So the Americans would clear an area, turn it over to Iraqi troops, and leave. Then insurgents would attack the Iraqi soldiers and drive them out of the area, repopulate it, assert control over the population again, and the U.S. would have to go back in again. THis was the ‘whack a mole’ strategy that was obviously a failure, but which Rumsfeld refused to change for several years.

“Small Wars Journal” is not some guy’s blog. It’s the web site of a magazine that is like a professional journal for soldiers. Most of the people who write for it are either civilian defense specialists or military officers. I think it’s hilarious that you would categorize Dave Kilcullen as just another Blogger, while holding up Glenn Greenwald as some sort of authority. Let’s compare their bios:

From this Bio:

He has also been highly critical of the Bush Administration and of the previous failed policies in Iraq.

Glenn Greenwald, on the other hand, is a civil rights litigator from New York. He appears to have no training at all in military matters. Furthermore, he appears to be a lousy lournalist, because the facts don’t bear out any of his criticism about the ‘propaganda shift’ of calling insurgents al-Qaida.

In fact, as this thorough debunking shows:

But hey, you don’t have to take my word or his. Just go to the presside for the Multi-National Forces Iraq and peruse their archive of press releases yourself. No secondary sources required.

And if you’d like to know what’s actually been going on in Baqubah, you could try reading Michael Yon’s dispatches. He’s an independent reporter embedded with U.S. forces, and he’s been going on combat patrols with them and reporting what he sees. He’s no shill for Bush, but he is an excellent photographer and reporter. If you’ve seen that well-known picture of an American soldier cradling an injured Iraqi child, that’s his. It’s been on the cover of many magazines and news articles.

There is no question whatsoever that al-Qaida had a heavy presence in the area. From the article:

On of the reasons the local insurgencies have turned to helping the MNF with al-Qaida is because al-Qaida has behaved like the radical fanatics they are whenever they’ve gained any sort of local control and alienated the population. Iraqis aren’t ignorant peasants - they’re educated, sophisticated people. No matter how much the Sunnis hate the Shias, exposure to al-Qaida in power is toxic to their continued existence.

And despite the sneering here about ‘panglossian blogs’, there’s nothing on any of the sites I linked that could be called even remotely panglossian. The Small Wars Journal article admits that it may be too late in Iraq, and that there are no guarantees of success. It notes that counter-counterinsurgency is a given, and the enemy will certainly shift tactics. It’s a difficult fight, no one is pretending it isn’t. That’s different than saying it’s lost and there’s no hope, however.

One of the commenters on the SWJ cite was dead-on when he said that the real tragedy here is the Bush Administration’s refusal to learn the lessons of previous counter-insurgencies. The ‘protect the population’ strategy that is finally taking place now was well known as the most effective way to stop an insugency well before the war broke out, but Rumseld’s ‘smaller, more agile’ doctrine ran counter to that, so it was ignored for years, despite the complaints of experts like Kilcullen.

The OP is obviously incorrect since it implies the mainstream news channels, newspapers, and even our elected officials might be fibbing or even spoon feeding us out and out propaganda. That obviously doesn’t happen in America. After all, we have CNN and liberal rags to set the story straight.

Actually, I have noticed Bush and pals referring to Al Qaida more lately. The blogs have been talking about it a little, so you’re not alone. “Meh” as far as I’m concerned, maybe it amounts to a slight up tic in the graph of this lie – maybe only a change in slight degree, not kind.

See also: democracy is messy, a free people are free to make bad choices, Saddam loyalists, dead enders, last throes, etc.

Other posters also echo my feelings of what must amount to deja vu for many Americans. After all, we were brutally efficient in Vietnam. Everyone we killed was Viet Cong. All three million of 'em. Yep.

I agree. How could one be so callous as to poke fun at a twisted, sordid, fucking stupid mess of one’s own making?

Indeed, George, what a nice joke you pulled. On all of us. Our failure as a society is quite hilarious, really.

It is funny, in a tragic Shakespearean manner, because the sheer incomptetence from top to bottom is pretty amazing and well documented going back not even to the start of this war, but all the way back to the 60s. There are big fat reports and books all about it that a weakling like I could barely lift with one arm, written by experts and everything. One would think the imperialists would’ve learned their lessons long ago but nope, here it comes again, rearing its ugly head again. The 1% must be really pissed off that they put their money behind these numbskulls.

Also, for those referring to the Iraqi army, be careful. Last I checked, the army, police, and important civilian operations were riddled with insurgents and informants. You know…a massive insurgency? A super majority of the population wanting you to leave their country ASAP?

Michael Yon?

The guy touting Operation Arrowhead Ripper?

The guy claiming yet another slaughter of our allies as some sort of victory?

Somehow he seems to have missed this bit in all his unquestioning parroting of US claims. An embedded reporter has a very narrow and particular view. It’s interesting reporting but not even approaching a slam dunk source.

It’s Nam deja vu all over again. Every dead Iraqi is an insurgent. The ARVN/Iraqi Army is forever on the verge of standing up and the national government isn’t worth spit.

And we’ll be back in the same place doing the same thing with the same level of self-defeating callous incompetence next year.

Okay - we may or may not kill a few people that call themselves Al-Q. Big fucking deal if at the same time we fuel the real insurgency with our stupidity and our lies.

Does anyone want to seriously argue that shit like this does anything else but sow another handful of dragon’s teeth? Particularly when even Von recognises the continued cowardice and ineptitude of the guys who are meant to hold the ‘cleared’ area.

The police are a corrupt, cowardly, militia in disguise joke and the army? Well, as he says himself:

They aren’t trusted enough to be in on the planning and the best of the best, when they are allowed to take part are ‘increasingly competent’. A 25% absenteeism rate. Loyal to faction rather than national government.

Meanwhile al-sadr is threatening a million man march to Samarra and the parliament, split along sectarian lines cannot even agree if the Speaker has been sacked or not. A warrant on terrorism charges has been issued for the Minister of Culture.

And another 3 Brits killed in Basra where it is reported

Meanwhile in Baghdad the car bombings and the executions continue unabated and US casualties continue to mount.

The US-friendly UN chief says the surge is failing

The UK Iraq Envoy concurs

But I guess there are just some people still who when they wake up and smell shit they think coffee.

Those of us embedded in the real world have long since stopped buying.

Turns out I was not only right – Sam’s bellowing notwithstanding – but it’s also a VERY obvious coordinated campaign to reel-in the Usual Rightards…as, once again, Squink’s pol figures show.

Bush plays al Qaida card to bolster support for Iraq policy

Longish quote ahead.

– my highlights.

Says it all, really. So, as far as I am concerned, my job here is done. Hope this thread has been of some value to the fence-sitters as it shows once again what a lying, conniving and murdering cabal, controls the fate of your nation.

If the Bushies or warmongers have anything of substance to refute the evidence given, bring it on. Otherwise, I’d say we can put a fork in this one. Ignorance fought. Up to each individual to judge the facts such as they have been presented – and the evidence is overwhelming in favor of my original especulations.

Hey, I wanted to cite that…

Anyway, I don’t see all the fuss. I mean, compared to the Everest of lies used in nearly every facet of policy this is a small molehill. It’s interesting, certainly, to see the raw numbers, but of little importance. Now lying about covert operations in Iran and their “diplomatic efforts”, well…

You got to get up pretty early in the afternoon, you want to be ol’ Red

“beat” ol’ Red

The Decider has decided that al Qaeda is the enemy. If The Decider doesn’t get to decide that, then what kind of Decider would he be? Not a decidedly decisive one, I can tell you that! So it is said, so let it be decided.

Well, as 'luc rightfully says, you’ve got to be up at least a few minutes prior 1:OO PM in order to beat me to anything early afternoon riser that I am.

I mean, at my age I need my beauty rest – not that it helps…but come on! Rise and shine.

Never tried to make a a big fuss outta of it. Simply outing yet another of your Government’s lies. It started on a hunch and I simply kept digging. No big, I agree, just a heads-up. And certainly just another link in the chain.

But still…why give them a pass on any of their wrongdoings?

BTW, where are the rebuttals? And what happened to Sam anyway? Him being so adamant and all…

Night anyway. Off to watch MM’s “Sicko.” Perfect for moi, isn’t it?

Till next time. Keep on doing what you’re doing. Quite good at it.

Haven’t seen much of that side of you, John, and I wouldn’t suggest you quit your day job based on one post, but I found that pretty funny anyway.
Night all – for real.

I have definitely noticed this as well. It seemed to happen all of a sudden about 2 months ago or so. I was even going to start a thread about it in GQ asking: “How can we know that all of the ‘enemy’ we’re killing in battle is Al Qaeda?” But I decided to let it go. I’m just glad I’m not the only one who noticed it.

I checked some foreign news sites and they didn’t seem to always refer to the enemy as Al Qaeda. I have also noticed that these articles have no other sources that “the U.S. Military said”. I admit that a large amount of the data coming out of Iraq will be from the U.S. Military, but aren’t there any other viewpoints over there??

From Reuters:

Are you saying the General is just making this up?

And this relates to the administrations’ exaggeration of the Al Qaeda presence in Iraq, how? We know there is AQ in Iraq, and we know they kill Sunnis as well as Shia. But we also know they are not the cause of the vast majority of the violence pitting Sunni against Shia. So, if Sunni insurgents wipe out AQ, it will not reduce the violence in Iraq by a significant amount. It will only allow the Sunnis and Shia to ramp up their civil war slaughter without annoying distractions like AQ.

Not quite on point, Sam. What we are suspicious of is the recent focus on Al Queda, or at least the recent PR about AlQ. This general may be telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but, and so? He may be talking about a couple of isolated tribes with a grudge against AlQ (which might be entirely a matter of sectarian disagreement, we have no way to judge…). He may be talking about a widespread, nearly universal rejection of AlQ by Sunnis generally, again, no way to know.

Or, he could be lying through his teeth, is there something about pinning some stars to his collar that renders him inherently reliable? Then its a pity that it doesn’t extend to the Commander in Chief.

I already posted a link to the actual press releases being put out by the MNF. Would anyone like to go through that and show me where there’s evidence that the emphasis has been changed to al-Qaida where events on the ground don’t warrant it? There’s no need to guess about this stuff - the entire archive is there for your perusal. Or would you rather stand on your vague impressons and gut feelings?

You don’t suppose it’s possible that because you’re hostile to the administration and therefore sensitive to them making claims about al-Qaida, that there’s a bit of selection bias going on here? i.e. when you see ‘al-Qaida’ in a press release, it raises your hackles and causes you to remember it, but when the press release doesn’t mention them it gets ignored? And that this effect is probably magnified if you spend your time cruising lefty blogs, because they’ll scream and cry about the al-Qaida mentions and ignore the others?

Or that maybe any increases in coverage of al-Qaida have more to do with A) the population being more cooperative and identifying them, so the U.S. military can actually tell the difference between al-Qaida and the other insurgent groups better than it could before, or B) that the U.S. is on a specific offensive to attack al-Qaida, and therefore they are more in the news now than they were before when the U.S. was essentially ignoring them because it had its hands-full with the ‘whack a mole’ strategy against local insurgents?

There was a flurry of articles about al-Qaida in Iraq a few years ago, too - that was when Petraeus was leading his own men and managed to employ the same tactics in Mosul that he’s now using across the country - to the same effect. Once the population felt protected and secure by the ‘clear and hold’ strategy, they started coming forward to identify al-Qaida, because they hated them. The U.S. ran al-Qaida off and killed a lot of them that time around.

Then Rumsfeld decided that Petraeus wasn’t playing by the proper ‘leaner faster’ strategy and replaced him with someone who took the boots off the ground and put them in Stryker combat vehicles and withdrew them from daily contact with the local population - and everything went to hell again.

Yes, Sam, we might be blinded by our own prejudices and presumptions. So might you. We can at least underscore our presumption by the simple fact that we have been lied to consistently and abundantly. What you got?

The Iraqis certainly are backing us all the way.

From this multi-subject story.

I suppose it’s possible that the lads in charge have decided to start start telling us the truth, just when al Qaeda in Iraq comes into its full bloom as a major player. Still, given the admin’s track record on the truthiness front, that seems bloody unlikely, especially when one considers how convenient it is for Mr. Bush and friends to be able to schlep this story just now.

I’ve got a link to the actual press release archives, where you can actually go count the mentions of al-Qaida. There’s no evidence of the kind of propaganda you are talking about.

Good enough?

What evidence would there be? Do we expect a disclaimer? “The following release is propaganda, it is diseminated with the express intent to mislead and misrepresent.” Of course there is no evidence, one wouldn’t expect otherwise!