# Alabama’s unemployment rate continues to plummet **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 26, 2012, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786 "2012-01-26T23:45:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Chen019](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f19dbf/32.png) [@Chen019](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chen019)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2012, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/1 "2012-01-26T23:45:17Z")
This shows just how easy it could be to partially reduce US [unemployment.](http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/20/alabamas-immigration-reform-again-cuts-unemployment/#ixzz1kbxb3nio) 🙂 > [@](#): > > Alabama’s unemployment rate continues to drop amid state-wide enforcement of a new immigration law, despite Democratic efforts to block and stigmatize the popular reform. > > December’s unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent, down from 8.7 percent in November and 9.8 percent in September. > > “In the last three months alone, we’ve seen an unprecedented drop of 1.7 percentage points,” noted Alabama Republican Gov. Robert Bentley in a Jan. 20 statement. > > “Our rate is once again below the national average, and over 41,000 more Alabamians are employed now than at the beginning of the year… but we still have work to do,” said Bentley. > > The drop began after a bipartisan 2011 law toughened the state’s immigration enforcement policies. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/2 "2012-01-27T00:01:28Z")
Unsurprisingly, this argument lacks any intellectual rigor. First, although the October-December change in rate was statistically significant, the October-December change in number of employed people was not. ([Cite](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm).) So what exactly is your causal theory? Second, lots of states experienced similar drops in unemployment rate over the same period. Michigan dropped by 1.3%. South Carolina and Utah dropped a full point. Puerto Rico dropped 1.4%. Did Michigan also pass harsh anti-immigrant laws? If you want to present a cogent argument, I suggest the following: tell us in what sector(s) illegal immigrants were principally employed, and then tell us whether those sectors change in employment rates different with statistical significance from sectors which had fewer illegal immigrants, and with statistical significance from the same sectors in other states. At least then you’d have an argument and not this post hoc parlor game. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/3 "2012-01-27T00:05:10Z")
New Mexico’s unemployment rate is 6.6 and immigrants (also the illegal ones) live relatively openly, with little interference, so I will let others decide who is more effective regarding this. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/4 "2012-01-27T00:10:43Z")
Your evidence is a set of unemployment-rate statistics for _a period ending in December_ with no mention of the rate being seasonally adjusted?? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! :p:p:rolleyes::p:D:p Next Trick: Use the average temperatures for this period to prove that Global Warming is just a bunch of pointy-headed liberal hooey… ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/5 "2012-01-27T00:11:41Z")
It is seasonally adjusted. But it is also preliminary. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/6 "2012-01-27T00:28:42Z")
Moved to Great Debates from Elections. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/7 "2012-01-27T00:33:31Z")
Are the new jobs those that would have been taken by illegal aliens? I skimmed through the link rather quickly, so maybe I missed this. Without knowing the nature of the jobs, it is hard to say what’s happening. Maybe the unemployment rate would be dipping even faster if the law hadn’t been enacted. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/8 "2012-01-27T00:50:55Z")
I love it when a _post hoc, ergo propter hoc_ comes together. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/9 "2012-01-27T02:42:03Z")
Maybe the drop in Alabama’s unemployment rate is… _Obama’s fault!_ (cue ominous organ music) ---
**Author:** ![aforehand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b487fb/32.png) [@aforehand](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aforehand)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/10 "2012-01-27T03:27:17Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Unsurprisingly, this argument lacks any intellectual rigor. > > First, although the October-December change in rate was statistically significant, the October-December change in number of employed people was not. ([Cite](http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm).) So what exactly is your causal theory? > > Second, lots of states experienced similar drops in unemployment rate over the same period. Michigan dropped by 1.3%. South Carolina and Utah dropped a full point. Puerto Rico dropped 1.4%. Did Michigan also pass harsh anti-immigrant laws? > > If you want to present a cogent argument, I suggest the following: tell us in what sector(s) illegal immigrants were principally employed, and then tell us whether those sectors change in employment rates different with statistical significance from sectors which had fewer illegal immigrants, and with statistical significance from the same sectors in other states. At least then you’d have an argument and not this post hoc parlor game. I can’t say whether or not state wide this is the case, but I can tell you that in Leeds Alabama, where I live there were ONLY hispanics employeed at the local McDonalds…NOW there are maybe a couple…AND they have a sign on the door that states that they use E-verify. Like I said, I can’t tell you state wide what jobs illegal immigramts were principally employeed, I can’t tell you whether or not several months ago every employee at McDonalds was illegal. I CAN tell you that when I go there now, there is a sign on the door stating McDonalds uses E-verify and it wasn’t there before. I can also tell you that I no longer hear any hispanic accents when taking my order. ---
**Author:** ![aforehand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b487fb/32.png) [@aforehand](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aforehand)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/11 "2012-01-27T03:32:45Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > Are the new jobs those that would have been taken by illegal aliens? I skimmed through the link rather quickly, so maybe I missed this. > > Without knowing the nature of the jobs, it is hard to say what’s happening. Maybe the unemployment rate would be dipping even faster if the law hadn’t been enacted. I seriously doubt it. I say this only because of the fast food places I’ve seen before the law was passed and after the law was passed. Most of the local food places had mostly or only hispanic employees…now they are black and white with a few hispanics (even the Mexican restaurants). Also my friends maid left after the law was passed (even though it isn’t illegal to hire an undocumented worker for domestic help) ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/12 "2012-01-27T14:42:13Z")
There’s a _sign_? Why didn’t you say so in the first place? That clears up everything. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/13 "2012-01-27T15:24:18Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > There’s a _sign_? Why didn’t you say so in the first place? That clears up everything. They’re everywhere…blocking out the scenery, breaking my mind… ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/14 "2012-01-27T15:26:09Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > They’re everywhere…blocking out the scenery, breaking my mind… …do this…don’t do that… ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/15 "2012-01-27T15:31:29Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Second, lots of states experienced similar drops in unemployment rate over the same period. Michigan dropped by 1.3%. South Carolina and Utah dropped a full point. Puerto Rico dropped 1.4%. Did Michigan also pass harsh anti-immigrant laws? But both Alabama and Michigan have large auto-industry sectors. I suspect thats the reason for better then average drops in unemployment for both states, as the autoindustry has been rebounding. ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/16 "2012-01-27T15:49:00Z")
If you remove people from a place, there will a higher job:worker ratio. This holds whether you’re arresting them, deporting them, or shooting them in the head. So I don’t really see why this hypothesis seems so implausible. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/17 "2012-01-27T15:51:10Z")
How many jobs will there be if you remove _everyone_? Right. That’s why we don’t apply third grade logic to immigration policy. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/18 "2012-01-27T15:56:55Z")
> [@Chessic\_Sense](#): > > If you remove people from a place, there will a higher job:worker ratio. This holds whether you’re arresting them, deporting them, or shooting them in the head. Not necessarily true. Fewer people means fewer consumers, which means fewer jobs. Also most immigrant workers were hired because they were cheap. So to some extent when they leave, the job they held disappears rather then being given to a presumably more expensive US citizen. Which doesn’t mean its impossible that tougher anti-immigrant laws have caused the unemployment rate to drop, but its not obviously so. And trying to point at a dropping unemployment rate as evidence at a time when unemployment rate is dropping across the country is silly. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/19 "2012-01-27T16:02:24Z")
> [@Chessic\_Sense](#): > > So I don’t really see why this hypothesis seems so implausible. Maybe the hypothesis is plausible. But the evidence is weak. Very weak. 1. Because the people are still there. They haven’t been removed. Employers may be checking immigration status more closely, though. 2. Because a lot of states saw similar drops in unemployment without similar laws. 3. The analysis was performed from September to December, i.e. the Holiday Shopping Season. I would want to see an October to October comparison (to get rid of seasonal variations), the number of total jobs available versus positions filled (rather than just the unemployment rate), and a comparison of these types of numbers between Alabama and other states. That’s the sort of evidence I would want BEFORE coming to the conclusion that this law is primarily responsible for any jobs gains. As posted above and without such evidence, the OP clearly demonstrates post hoc reasoning. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2012, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786/20 "2012-01-27T16:28:38Z")
I credit the Regis factor. The economy began to turn around about the same time Regis left his show. I can only conclude that the people who used to sit around watching Regis had to find something else to do, so they found work. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alabama-s-unemployment-rate-continues-to-plummet/610786.md?page=2)