# Alberta Election 2015: "Mother of mercy, is this the end of Alberta Tories?"
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [April 18, 2015, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970 "2015-04-18T05:51:46Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)
#### Post date: [April 22, 2015, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/21 "2015-04-22T18:27:45Z")
> [@Canadjun](#):
>
> OMG! The world must be coming to an end! Prentice actually backed down on something (he’s promised not to reduce the deduction for charitable donations after all).
The guy is like Macbeth. He’s just beginning to realize that the three weird sisters may have been deceiving him after all. Birnam Wood does come to Dunsinane.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [April 22, 2015, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/22 "2015-04-22T18:36:43Z")
And Macduff was untimely ripp’d.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2015, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/23 "2015-04-23T01:39:02Z")
> [@Spoons](#):
>
> I’ll admit that I never thought of the seasonal nature of elections in Canada; but now that you bring it up, most are always in the spring or fall, as I recall.
The only winter one that I remember was the 1980 federla election, in February, which was triggered because the Clark government fell on its budget. But that’s a good thing - having an election, even at an odd time of the year, was necessary to give the people the chance to decide the dispute in the Commons. The odd timing just emphasised how important it was.
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### Author:  [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2015, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/24 "2015-04-23T02:23:00Z")
The 2006 federal election was in January, but that was because of the no confidence vote on Martin, and the one before that was in June.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2015, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/25 "2015-04-23T04:58:10Z")
You’re right - i’d forgotten that one.
And it looks like the 1921 election was in December.
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### Author:  [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2015, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/26 "2015-04-23T06:30:29Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> The only winter one that I remember was the 1980 federla election, in February, which was triggered because the Clark government fell on its budget. But that’s a good thing - having an election, even at an odd time of the year, was necessary to give the people the chance to decide the dispute in the Commons. The odd timing just emphasised how important it was.
Good call. I remember the February 1980 election too, in the wake of the non-confidence vote on Joe Clark’s government.
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### Author:  [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)
#### Post date: [April 23, 2015, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/27 "2015-04-23T13:41:00Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> The only winter one that I remember was the 1980 federla election, in February, which was triggered because the Clark government fell on its budget. But that’s a good thing - having an election, even at an odd time of the year, was necessary to give the people the chance to decide the dispute in the Commons. The odd timing just emphasised how important it was.
January 2006. Stephen Harper’s Conservative party elected as a minority government.
ETA: it done been mentioned.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2015, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/28 "2015-04-25T05:15:32Z")
The most recent poll shows the NDP pulling ahead to first place, Wildrose in second, and the PCs in third. The NDP is polling strongly in the two main cities, Calgary and Edmonton. If they have a concentrated vote in such target-rich environments, the mechanics of first-past-the-post could have a pay off for them.
[New Forum Research poll shows NDP pulling ahead in Alberta election race](http://www.edmontonjournal.com/poll+shows+pulling+ahead+Alberta+election+race/11000893/story.html)
> [@](#):
>
> A new Forum Research poll reports nearly four in 10 decided and leaning voters plan cast their ballots for the NDP on election day, while a quarter say they favour the Wildrose Party and 20 per cent say they will cast their ballot for the Progressive Conservatives.
> …
> According to Forum’s research, the NDP are showing an edge in both Edmonton and Calgary. Nearly 40 per cent voters who supported the Tories in 2012 plan to cast their ballots for the New Democrats on election day, poll says.
>
> Forum’s poll also found NDP voters are the youngest and wealthiest with a strong lead in Edmonton. The PC vote is coming from the oldest electors, the least wealthy and those in northern Alberta. The Wildrose vote is common to southern and northern Alberta outside the cities.
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### Author:  [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)
#### Post date: [April 25, 2015, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/29 "2015-04-25T06:10:47Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> The most recent poll shows the NDP pulling ahead to first place, Wildrose in second, and the PCs in third. The NDP is polling strongly in the two main cities, Calgary and Edmonton. If they have a concentrated vote in such target-rich environments, the mechanics of first-past-the-post could have a pay off for them.
>
> [New Forum Research poll shows NDP pulling ahead in Alberta election race](http://www.edmontonjournal.com/poll+shows+pulling+ahead+Alberta+election+race/11000893/story.html)
Indeed. I can understand Edmonton, but if the NDP are surging in Calgary too? Prentice is Fworded.
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### Author:  [@Bookkeeper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bookkeeper)
#### Post date: [April 27, 2015, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/30 "2015-04-27T02:21:03Z")
> [@Spoons](#):
>
> That’s my feeling also. If the whole system rests on the Commons’ confidence in the government; then if the Commons no longer has confidence in the government, there should be an election. I cannot imagine a government _without_ the confidence of the Commons saying, “Big deal, we’re not holding another election until the legislation says that we have to.” It seems to me at that point, the GG/LG would be constitutionally-bound to dissolve the Commons anyway, regardless of fixed-date legislation–would I be correct?
>
> I guess I am! 🙂
>
> I’ll admit that I never thought of the seasonal nature of elections in Canada; but now that you bring it up, most are always in the spring or fall, as I recall.
>
> No problem on the delay. Thank you for the excellent answer!
For the federal elections, the “fixed date” act has two clauses - the first sets a fixed date for elections, and the second acknowledges that, constitutionally, the first clause has no legal effect. Technically, only the GG can call an election, and his/her prerogative cannot be limited by Parliament.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 27, 2015, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/31 "2015-04-27T19:50:38Z")
Same in the Alberta _Election Act_:
> [@](#):
>
> **38.1** (1) Nothing in this section affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the Legislature, in Her Majesty’s name, when the Lieutenant Governor sees fit.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [April 27, 2015, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/32 "2015-04-27T20:12:32Z")
> [@Spoons](#):
>
> Yet at the same time, the recent budget was extremely unpopular, and dynasties don’t last forever–remember, Ontario PCs were in power from sometime in the 1940s to 1984. Since then, Ontario has seen Liberal, NDP, and PC governments. I don’t see how Alberta could be any different.
Well as an Albertan I am sure you know, but one difference is that this your second dynasty in a row. Social Credit was in power for 36 years before this one. And looking now, I see only 4 parties have formed governments in the last 110 years!
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 28, 2015, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/33 "2015-04-28T01:44:34Z")
Alberta is unique in that way: no party that has held power and been defeated has ever returned to power.
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### Author:  [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)
#### Post date: [April 28, 2015, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/34 "2015-04-28T02:33:07Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Apparently the [Progressive Conservatives](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Conservative_Association_of_Alberta) espouse [Red Toryism](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Tory). No, I never heard of it before either.
It’s stranger than you think. The first prime minister, John A. Macdonald, actually belonged to something called the Liberal-Conservative party for the first few years. It then became usually known as the Conservative party, around 1873. Then in 1942, the party asked John Bracken, a member of the Manitoba Progressive party, to lead them, and he insisted on a name change to the Progressive Conservatives. Pragmatism, politics, strange bedfellows.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 28, 2015, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/35 "2015-04-28T02:40:59Z")
The electorate seems to be volatile. A poll taken last Thursday has Wildrose in front (by one point, so a tie, essentially), NDP second, and PCs third, with PCs now apparently in better position in Calgary than the previous poll I cited:
[Reuters: Alberta voters may end ruling party’s 44-year run after oil plunge](http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/27/canada-politics-alberta-idINL1N0XO1PM20150427)
> [@](#):
>
> An April 24 poll by Mainstreet Technologies found Wildrose had the support of 32 percent of decided voters, with the New Democrats at 31 percent and PCs trailing at 26 percent.
>
> The poll, which surveyed 4,295 Albertans and has a 1.49 percent margin of error, found the PCs were trailing everywhere but Calgary, home to much of the province’s oil industry.
It’s really going to come down to which party has the most concentrated bases of support on a regional level, I would think, if those numbers hold up.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 28, 2015, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/36 "2015-04-28T02:42:09Z")
> [@Spoons](#):
>
> Well, it’s going to be interesting, no doubt about that.
>
> What I find interesting is that Lethbridge has a “key riding.” Heck, it only has two! In the last election, both of Lethbridge’s ridings went to the PCs, but the city was surrounded by Wildrose ridings.
>
> The riding of West Lethbridge is the one that the NP item is referring to. Demographics play an important role in West Lethbridge; it is the area of the city that is growing faster than the others, and not all of the newcomers are Albertan. Rather, they come from other parts of Canada, or even from outside Canada; and they don’t all have that old-school Alberta Tory attitude. In addition, West Lethbridge is where the university is, so you’ve got the students, and many of their professors, in the riding too. This is the demographic that the NDP is playing to in West Lethbridge, and judging by the amount of NDP lawn signs that I see, they are having some success. How much it will translate to at the polls, I have no idea; but you’re correct: it will certainly be interesting to watch!
So are you in the swing riding or the stable riding, **Spoons**?
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### Author:  [@Canadjun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Canadjun)
#### Post date: [April 28, 2015, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/37 "2015-04-28T13:18:22Z")
I figure polls are so close and swinging back and forth so much that it may come down to which party manages to have the fewest candidates making stupid comments (or perceived to be stupid, regardless of whether the candidate was misunderstood), like Prentice’s “Math is difficult” or Dirks’ “Albertans haven’t got it yet” comments.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [April 30, 2015, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/38 "2015-04-30T02:00:38Z")
Mr Prentice is having to make some fine distinctions:
• A sitting MLA who was convicted of soliciting a prostitute while on government business in Minnesota is still worthy of carrying the PC banner in this election because he manned up and took responsibility for his criminal misconduct;
• but another potential PC candidate was disqualified by being the subject of a civil restraining order by his ex, not because of the restraining order as such, but because he didn’t tell the PC organization about it.
😕
> **[National Post](https://nationalpost.com/?b=news.nationalpost.com%2F%2Fnews%2Fcanada%2Fcanadian-politics%2Fjim-prentice-defends-pc-election-candidate-convicted-of-soliciting-prostitute)**
>
> Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. National Post offers information on latest national and international events & more.
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### Author:  [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)
#### Post date: [April 30, 2015, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/39 "2015-04-30T23:02:37Z")
Multiple polls released today showing the NDP in the lead in the high 30s (!) with the PC and WR trading spots depending on the poll in the mid 20s. Because of the NDP’s concentrated support in Edmonton, that might not translate to a majority like it normally would, but it’s bound to make things very interesting on election night if they hold.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [May 1, 2015, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/40 "2015-05-01T04:32:11Z")
Alberta’s favourite politician weighs in:
[[Mayor] Nenshi predicts PC minority government in Alberta election](http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/nenshi-predicts-pc-minority-government-in-alberta-election-1.3056307)
> [@](#):
>
> Calgary’s mayor says he suspects the PCs will retain their hold on power in next week’s election.
> …
> Nenshi later added that he expects a PC minority, with whichever party that does the best in Calgary likely winning the election.
And another poll:
[Alberta NDP poised for historic breakthrough, new poll suggests](http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-ndp-poised-for-historic-breakthrough-new-poll-suggests-1.3054823)
> [@](#):
>
> An exclusive CBC poll suggests the Alberta NDP has a solid lead provincewide, but that doesn’t mean Rachel Notley is on the verge of leading an NDP majority government in the May 5 election.
>
> “I think Albertans should be prepared for a minority government,” said Bruce Cameron, president of Return On Insight.
> …
> “We’d have Wildrose getting most of the seats in the areas outside of the cities, PCs getting most of the seats in Calgary and the NDP getting most of the seats in Edmonton — and that is a recipe for a minority government.”
> …
> The data suggests the NDP is in a sizable lead right now across the province with 38 per cent of the decided vote.
> …
> “The interesting thing is how it splits out, because more than half of their vote is concentrated in Edmonton, so it will not translate into as many seats as a 38 per cent public opinion poll might usually translate.”
>
> The Progressive Conservatives are in second place with 24 per cent support among decided respondents, while the Wildrose has 21 per cent.
Lot of voter volatility, it looks like.
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