# Alberta Election 2015: "Mother of mercy, is this the end of Alberta Tories?"
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [April 18, 2015, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970 "2015-04-18T05:51:46Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)
#### Post date: [May 1, 2015, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/41 "2015-05-01T04:50:11Z")
Yes, I think we will see a minority government of some sort. Not very scientific, but from what I hear from local friends and acquaintances, that’s the way things are going to be. Nobody overwhelming agrees on any party getting a majority.
And even less scientific is the campaign literature that has been left in my mailbox: two pieces for the NDP candidate, one piece for the PC candidate, and nothing from the other candidates.
I guess we’ll see what happens on Tuesday.
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### Author:  [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)
#### Post date: [May 1, 2015, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/42 "2015-05-01T12:51:52Z")
[Another poll](http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/new-government-inevitable) released this morning, this from a pollster that’s had the WR in front the whole way - NDP at 44%, WR 26%, PC 21%. The bandwagon effect is full steam ahead, with a notable drop in undecideds, who are going en masse to the NDP.
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### Author:  [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2015, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/43 "2015-05-02T01:41:49Z")
It’s a split the right race, something we haven’t seen in Alberta in like forever. I predict an NDP majority.
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### Author:  [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2015, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/44 "2015-05-02T04:55:43Z")
I look forward to the coming 47 years of NDP government in Alberta. 😛
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [May 2, 2015, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/45 "2015-05-02T05:14:24Z")
Now, now, don’t get cocky. The average term in office of an Alberta government is only 27.5 years. :dubious:
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/46 "2015-05-04T06:52:30Z")
At the risk of inflating my Pjen-ratio in this thread, I thought I’d post about the most recent polls that have come out, suggesting that Alberta may be heading for a majority NDP government.
[NDP continues to surge in Alberta, says poll](http://www.edmontonjournal.com/continues+surge+Alberta+says+poll/11024909/story.html)
> [@](#):
>
> Forty-two per cent of decided voters said they would cast a ballot for the NDP, compared to 24 per cent who said they would vote for the Wildrose, and 21 per cent who said they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, reported a Forum Research poll of 1,060 Alberta voters conducted Saturday.
> …
> “We noted the initial momentum of the NDP at the very beginning of the campaign, then cautiously spoke of an NDP majority midway through. Now the campaign is almost over, it appears the NDP is headed for a truly historic victory,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.
>
> “I don’t think the NDP are going to make a major mistake on (Sunday) or Monday, similar to what happened to the Wildrose three years ago. If things continue on track, and nothing major occurs, this is the likely outcome.”
> …
> The Forum findings are similar to those from a Leger Marketing poll for the Journal and Calgary Herald conducted last week, which found 38 per cent of decided voters supporting the NDP. But pollster Ian Large said the concentration of NDP support in Edmonton distorts the overall numbers, and that regional vote-splitting suggested the Tories and Wildrose remain competitive.
>
> The Forum poll from this weekend found the NDP with a solid lead in all but two regions of the province, with 37 per cent and 55 per cent NDP support in Calgary and Edmonton respectively. Thirty-eight per cent of respondents in northern Alberta favoured the NDP.
And in response, the leaders of Wildrose and teh PC parties are both urging Albertans to vote strategically solely for their own party, to provide a strong opposition to the NDP government:
[Common enemy — Wildrose and Tories singing from the same songsheet about dangers of NDP](http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/05/04/common-enemy--wildrose-and-tories-singing-from-the-same-songsheet-about-dangers-of-ndp)
> [@](#):
>
> Jean says only the Wildrose can provide a strong opposition now.
>
> The Wildrose boss says it is his party who are first or second in every part of the province except Edmonton, where he believes everything indicates the NDP will win every single seat in the capital.
>
> He says those who want to keep the NDP to a minority government win should mark an X for Wildrose. “Clearly the PCs have no chance whatsoever of stopping the NDP,” says the Wildrose leader."]Jean says only the Wildrose can provide a strong opposition now.
>
> The Wildrose boss says it is his party who are first or second in every part of the province except Edmonton, where he believes everything indicates the NDP will win every single seat in the capital.
>
> He says those who want to keep the NDP to a minority government win should mark an X for Wildrose. “Clearly the PCs have no chance whatsoever of stopping the NDP,” says the Wildrose leader.
> …
> In Edmonton, Premier Prentice is doing things the other way round.
>
> He urges “voters from other parties that are fiscally conservative” to support the PCs.
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### Author:  [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/47 "2015-05-04T14:42:53Z")
The fear and panic campaigns are out in full force and it’s rather sad. I mean, I didn’t vote NDP, but to hear the way the WR and PCs talk, it’s as if the Red Brigade is sitting in Ponoka waiting to spring into action. I don’t know how communism starts, but I don’t think it’s with a 2% increase in the corporate tax rate.
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### Author:  [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/48 "2015-05-04T15:19:47Z")
If I had had to pick one province that I should be willing to bet a million gazillion dollars that we wouldn’t ever even be discussing even a possibility of an NDP government, it would have been Alberta.
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### Author:  [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/49 "2015-05-04T16:13:00Z")
Prior to 3 weeks ago, I’d have agreed with you entirely. Whatever happens, it’s been a remarkable election.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/50 "2015-05-04T16:25:07Z")
When the Ancien Régime cracks, all bets are off: “Après moi, la déluge!”
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### Author:  [@swampspruce](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/swampspruce)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/51 "2015-05-04T16:36:46Z")
I love how the Fed PCs are in a [minor panic](http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/01/alberta-ndp-conservatives-harper-mulcair-notley_n_7192154.html) about the possibility of a NDP led Alberta. "Tis to laugh!
I voted in the advance polls and have to say it was the most painless process for an election I’ve ever had.
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/52 "2015-05-04T17:48:47Z")
> [@swampspruce](#):
>
> I love how the Fed PCs are in a [minor panic](http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/01/alberta-ndp-conservatives-harper-mulcair-notley_n_7192154.html) about the possibility of a NDP led Alberta. "Tis to laugh!
>
> I voted in the advance polls and have to say it was the most painless process for an election I’ve ever had.
My theory about why the Feds (and conservatives in general) are in a major panic is:
The business cycle is currently down. It will eventually go up, no matter who is in power… this is the way it is. The conservatives are terrified that if the NDP are in powr when the business cycle naturally ramps up… They will look good.
And people might stop believing the myth that “NDP = BAD”
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### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/53 "2015-05-04T17:55:14Z")
The last minute FEAR! campaign has been impressive. We’ve had:
-Federal Harper Party faithful claiming with no evidence that an NDP victory in Alberta would hurt the entire country.
- Some CEO’s (who have donated $86,000 to the PC party) saying that if the NDP is elected, they will stop donating to a children’s hospital charity (classy guys, classy)
- Rhetoric that an NDP victory would be the end of the world as we know it - mostly from people who bandy the word “socialism” around without the vaguest notion of what it means.
- All 4 major newspapers in Alberta endorsing the Prentice PC’s - on direct orders from CEO Paul Godfrey of Postmedia, against the wishes of the local editorial boards.
Too little too late? Or will Albertans be scared enough to change their minds in the voting booth?
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### Author:  [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/54 "2015-05-04T18:59:32Z")
> [@Raygun99](#):
>
> The fear and panic campaigns are out in full force and it’s rather sad. I mean, I didn’t vote NDP, but to hear the way the WR and PCs talk, it’s as if the Red Brigade is sitting in Ponoka waiting to spring into action. I don’t know how communism starts, but I don’t think it’s with a 2% increase in the corporate tax rate.
Well sure. Have you _read_ the Regina Manifesto?
> [@Cooperative Commonwealth Federation](#):
>
> WE AIM TO REPLACE the present capitalist system, with its inherent injustice and inhumanity, by a social order from which the domination and exploitation of one class by another will be eliminated, in which economic planning will supersede unregulated private enterprise and competition, and in which genuine democratic self-government, based upon economic equality will be possible.
Just because that was written over 80 years ago and the NDP have long since eschewed the more blatantly Marxist portions of that document doesn’t mean anything. They’ve clearly just been waiting for the opportune moment to revert back to their roots, and what better moment to do so than after taking office in Alberta? 😛
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### Author:  [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)
#### Post date: [May 4, 2015, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/55 "2015-05-04T19:34:20Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#):
>
> So are you in the swing riding or the stable riding, **Spoons**?
I just have to say that to a sub-49ther, this question parses very oddly (though, yes, I understand what it means). Why would you be riding in the stable? And you ride on a swing, not in one.
More importantly, has anyone yet made any puns upon what Wild Rose might prove to be in the side of the PCs?
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### Author:  [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)
#### Post date: [May 5, 2015, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/56 "2015-05-05T06:32:15Z")
> [@swampspruce](#):
>
> I love how the Fed PCs are in a [minor panic](http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/01/alberta-ndp-conservatives-harper-mulcair-notley_n_7192154.html) about the possibility of a NDP led Alberta. "Tis to laugh!
>
> I voted in the advance polls and have to say it was the most painless process for an election I’ve ever had.
The NDP are one party that Harper can’t control. The other two have his boys at the helm. May we live in interesting times, indeed.
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### Author:  [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)
#### Post date: [May 5, 2015, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/57 "2015-05-05T06:33:58Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> The last minute FEAR! campaign has been impressive. We’ve had:
>
> -Federal Harper Party faithful claiming with no evidence that an NDP victory in Alberta would hurt the entire country.
>
> - Some CEO’s (who have donated $86,000 to the PC party) saying that if the NDP is elected, they will stop donating to a children’s hospital charity (classy guys, classy)
>
> - Rhetoric that an NDP victory would be the end of the world as we know it - mostly from people who bandy the word “socialism” around without the vaguest notion of what it means.
>
> - All 4 major newspapers in Alberta endorsing the Prentice PC’s - on direct orders from CEO Paul Godfrey of Postmedia, against the wishes of the local editorial boards.
>
> Too little too late? Or will Albertans be scared enough to change their minds in the voting booth?
Methinks the papers do protest too much.
---
### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [May 5, 2015, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/58 "2015-05-05T13:19:43Z")
> [@Frank](#):
>
> If I had had to pick one province that I should be willing to bet a million gazillion dollars that we wouldn’t ever even be discussing even a possibility of an NDP government, it would have been Alberta.
Albertans don’t want an NDP government. They want a government that isn’t the PCs.
What appears to be happening is that people want the bums kicked out, first and foremost. They’ll worry about the new bums later.
---
### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [May 5, 2015, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/59 "2015-05-05T13:29:27Z")
> [@swampspruce](#):
>
> I love how the Fed PCs are in a [minor panic](http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/01/alberta-ndp-conservatives-harper-mulcair-notley_n_7192154.html) about the possibility of a NDP led Alberta. "Tis to laugh!
Just to be pedantic,
1. There’s no PC party at the federal level.
2. Such Conservatives as are saying anything, according to the (as always) breathless and poorly headlined Huffington Post article, are Alberta Conservatives who’re doing favours for provincial allies. The federal Conservatives are, quite rightly, not taking a strong stance on who should win a provincial election, which is the way it always goes.
It’s largely a fallacy to think that like government in provincial and federal governments get along, or that unlike governments are enemies. There are links between provincial and federal politics because many of the players and their minions are linked up and they have to play nice in public, but when the business starts that basically matters to a provincial government is how much money the Feds give them, and what matters to the feds is how much the province cooperates with whatever the feds want to do. A Liberal government will cheerily cooperate with the Tories if they get lots of transfer money, and a PC government will cast the federal Tories as the devil incarnate if they don’t feel enough money is being given to them (as happened in Newfoundland quite recently.) Even at the local level provincial and federal counterparts might get along great or might despise each other. I have personal knowledge of a case in the NDP where nearly provincial and federal legislators each consider the other to be roughly equivalent to war criminals.
There is also, of course, the fact that provincial parties don’t always map to federal ones. Alberta has no significant Liberal Party, Quebec has no significant PC or Conservative Party, Saskatchewan has no sitting Liberal or PC members but does have the super-originally-named Saskatchewan Party, and so on.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [May 5, 2015, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alberta-election-2015-mother-of-mercy-is-this-the-end-of-alberta-tories/717970/60 "2015-05-05T15:20:07Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> - Rhetoric that an NDP victory would be the end of the world as we know it - mostly from people who bandy the word “socialism” around without the vaguest notion of what it means.
That happens in Canada too?!
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