# Alex Rodriguez hits 600th home run **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 4, 2010, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180 "2010-08-04T19:01:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JRG1976](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/848f3c/32.png) [@JRG1976](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRG1976)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2010, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/21 "2010-08-04T21:24:05Z")
Okay, that’s it. I don’t care about sports anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Bootis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e8c25b/32.png) [@Bootis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootis)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2010, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/22 "2010-08-04T22:05:40Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > > [@gonzomax](#): > > > > He is the youngest ever. But it took 3 years to go from 500 to 600. So he would be 38 at 700 assuming he maintains a pace of 33 1/3 homers a year. Then he would have to get the rest from his wheelchair. > > It took him 513 games for his first 106 (4.83 games/HR). > He had 189 after 790 games (4.18). > 298 after 1114 games (3.74). > 404 after 1516 games (3.75). > 518 after 1904 games (3.68). > 600 after 2266 games (3.78). > > If we assume 130 games per year here on out (he’s averaged 150/year since 1996), and that his production drops to a HR every 4 games, that’s 37 HRs per year. He’ll hit 700 sometime mid-2013 (age 37) and hit 800 in early 2016 (age 40). Arod has averaged 1 HR ever 4.47 games the last 3 seasons. Given that players historically have a fairly significant dropoff in production after their mid 30’s, there’s definitely no reason to predict he’ll _increase_ his production, but instead, it makes more sense to assume a decrease, more likely to 1 HR/5 games. To break the record, he’s most likely looking at needing to be hitting 30 HR at the age of 41. He’ll probably keep playing until he gets the record, because he’ll be close enough for a good shot, but there’s a good chance he will be forced to to play at 42,43, or 44 years old, hitting .200 and 10 hr/ year ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2010, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/23 "2010-08-04T22:36:21Z")
Yeah, I don’t think 5 G/HR is unreasonable to assume. I also don’t think it unlikely to assume he’s hitting 20-25/year at age 45. He’s a hell of a lot more durable than Griffey, and he hit 19 last year. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2010, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/24 "2010-08-04T23:28:59Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > > [@JRG1976](#): > > > > Hank Aaron is still the homerun king. We’ll have to wait for someone who came up after the steroid era to be legitimate. But, at least A-Rod isn’t Barry Bonds! > > Nope - Babe Ruth is the homerun king since Hank Aaron admitted to using amphetamines in his autobiography. And Babe Ruth was on sheep testosterone. And hookers. Lots and lots of hookers. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2010, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/25 "2010-08-04T23:37:47Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > > [@JRG1976](#): > > > > Hank Aaron is still the homerun king. We’ll have to wait for someone who came up after the steroid era to be legitimate. But, at least A-Rod isn’t Barry Bonds! > > Nope - Babe Ruth is the homerun king since Hank Aaron admitted to using amphetamines in his autobiography. Or we could simply look at all individual record holders through the lens of their respective eras high points and low points. That has the additional benefit of realizing that we simply do not know how widespread the use of PEDs was, who was using them, and therefore, who we can condemn and who we can revere. I don’t consider amphetamines a PED in the same class as roids, HgH and all that nonsense. Dude was just trying to stay awake for the long, arduous season, nevermind the demonic shadows lurking behind every door and window, along with the ubiquitous “they” always coming to get him! ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/26 "2010-08-05T00:57:44Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > He’s a juicer. I discount his stats. He’s a pussy. I don’t care about his stats. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/27 "2010-08-05T01:45:09Z")
[quote=“Munch, post:15, topic:549180”] > [@JRG1976](#): > > we simply do not know…who we can condemn and who we can revere. Oh, we certainly know who we can condemn. ---
**Author:** ![antonio107](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/7ea924/32.png) [@antonio107](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/antonio107)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/28 "2010-08-05T01:53:40Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > He’s a juicer. I discount his stats. Clearly he had to meet up with Jose Bautista’s dealer in order to get over that hump. How else do you explain that it happened against the Jays? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/29 "2010-08-05T01:59:55Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Oh, we certainly know who we can condemn. That’s a two-parter there champ. There were plenty of people juicing the same time A-Rod was that we’re unaware of. In addition, why all the love for guys like Hank Aaron who did admit - how do we determine \*this \*PED isn’t as bad as \*that \*PED? That A-Rod’s numbers can’t be looked at - but we’ll look at the pitchers he faced who were also using steroids that we didn’t hear about? No - we can’t condemn A-Rod until we have a complete picture. ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/30 "2010-08-05T15:05:00Z")
Munch: > [@](#): > > In addition, why all the love for guys like Hank Aaron who did admit - how do we determine this PED isn’t as bad as that PED? Because amphetamines are NOT the same as steroids. Steroids increase muscle mass and the ability to build it = home run power. Uppers do not enhance one’s physique. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/31 "2010-08-05T15:08:58Z")
In 30 years, people will be whining about all the new kids setting records with their wired reflexes, which are obviously qualitatively different than the steroids of the past, which only helped athletes work out more effectively. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/32 "2010-08-05T15:16:49Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > Steroids increase muscle mass and the ability to build it = home run power. Uppers do not enhance one’s physique. So, what’s your point? They enhance your ability to play. They increase focus, they increase the ability to slog out a 162-game season - ultimately enhancing your stats, if not your physique. Additionally, hitters had more to gain by using them than pitchers did - the opposite holds true for steroids and their ilk, increasing the likelihood of juiced hitters going up against juiced pitchers. Why the pass on greenies? Is it because we don’t want to taint our memories? ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/33 "2010-08-05T17:03:47Z")
What about coffee then? Or energy drinks? I give greenies a pass because it is _fundamentally_ different than altering the structure of one’s body. I really wouldn’t care if they snorted coke either. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/34 "2010-08-05T17:14:31Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > What about coffee then? Or energy drinks? Those are legal. > [@](#): > > I give greenies a pass because it is fundamentally different than altering the structure of one’s body. So you’re against weight-lifting? Look - I’m not advocating the use of PEDs. I’m simply saying that it’s ridiculous to give one PED a pass over another, or at the very least to ignore the fact that PEDs have been in widespread use for far longer than most seem to want to admit. Mike Schmidt, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron - the list goes on. If we could go back and take amphetamines completely out of the game, the numbers would be vastly different across the board. So why aren’t people calling out to ignore all the numbers from the 60s through the 80s as well? Why? Because Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire and A-Rod are douchebags, and it’s easy to make them the sacrificial lambs to wash away the iniquities of baseball’s glorious filthy past. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/35 "2010-08-05T20:04:59Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > > [@gonzomax](#): > > > > He is the youngest ever. But it took 3 years to go from 500 to 600. So he would be 38 at 700 assuming he maintains a pace of 33 1/3 homers a year. Then he would have to get the rest from his wheelchair. > > It took him 513 games for his first 106 (4.83 games/HR). > He had 189 after 790 games (4.18). > 298 after 1114 games (3.74). > 404 after 1516 games (3.75). > 518 after 1904 games (3.68). > 600 after 2266 games (3.78). > > If we assume 130 games per year here on out (he’s averaged 150/year since 1996), and that his production drops to a HR every 4 games, that’s 37 HRs per year. He’ll hit 700 sometime mid-2013 (age 37) and hit 800 in early 2016 (age 40). > > > [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > > > He’s a juicer. I discount his stats. > > :rolleyes: It was 3 years to the day for the last 100. !00 divided by 3 is 33 1/3. I am not going by games. I don’t know how many games he will play before he is done. But at his present pace he will be 38 when the next 100 is accomplished. If he has stopped juicing, he might take longer. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/36 "2010-08-05T20:10:41Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > So you’re against weight-lifting? Look - I’m not advocating the use of PEDs. I’m simply saying that it’s ridiculous to give one PED a pass over another, or at the very least to ignore the fact that PEDs have been in widespread use for far longer than most seem to want to admit. Mike Schmidt, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron - the list goes on. If we could go back and take amphetamines completely out of the game, the numbers would be vastly different across the board. So why aren’t people calling out to ignore all the numbers from the 60s through the 80s as well? > > Why? Because Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire and A-Rod are douchebags, and it’s easy to make them the sacrificial lambs to wash away the iniquities of baseball’s glorious filthy past. Agreed. In baseball it’s cheaters all the way down. It’s fair to bash the guy who’ve been caught, but it’s foolhardy to pretend that lots of others were not doing the same thing at the same time, and that similar things have gone on throughout the history of the sport. And I say that as a Yankee fan who acknowledges that Rodriguez’s PED admission was suspect. It was awfully convenient if he stopped using them before the MLB stepped up its penalties and before he played for the Yankees. Could be true, but we’ll probably never know. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/37 "2010-08-05T20:14:31Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > But at his present pace he will be 38 when the next 100 is accomplished. If he has stopped juicing, he might take longer. No one really cares about the next 100 - that wasn’t the point of my post. The point was pointing and laughing at your ridiculous “from the wheelchair” comment. I also don’t get the “if he has stopped juicing” part. It’s a fair assumption that there were hundreds of players juicing in the early 2000s, because there was very little testing, and there were zero repurcussions. Now testing is frequent, and the first transgression gets you a 50 game suspension. If he’s juicing, he’s juicing with stuff you can’t test for. And if there’s stuff you can’t test for, why the hell are we still giving A-Rod crap about it, because there are likely hundreds of other players taking the same stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/38 "2010-08-05T20:47:21Z")
Snore. Wake me when Pujols gets there. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/39 "2010-08-05T21:56:18Z")
Today I got an email from the Yankees about the home run. And right below it was a spam email selling me HGH. These things just write themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2010, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180/40 "2010-08-05T22:39:31Z")
Gaylord Perry wrote a whole book about how he cheated with a spitball and nobody tried to keep him out of the HOF. Everyone just laughed about it. Baseball has a long history of cheaters that nobody made a big deal about. Why the sudden change? Also pitchers were also using steroids, it was not just hitters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alex-rodriguez-hits-600th-home-run/549180.md?page=3)