# All the plans to reopen the economy are terrible in different ways **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 11, 2020, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591 "2020-04-11T23:46:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/41 "2020-04-13T04:12:00Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > That true, however, diabetes and hypertension can present with minor symptoms initially. Isn’t it possible that people with no “apparent conditions” simply didn’t know they had them? However, these are the first things attending physicians will check for, and they’re often not seeing them. There are clearly genetic, and perhaps environmental and nutritional factors to susceptibility. One suggestion, given the large discrepancy between light skinned and darker skinned people (often referred to in the media as differences in “black” populations but in fact there are differences in outcomes for Hispanic and other darker skinned people) is that natural Vitamin D production might be a contributor, although I have not seen any clinical information to back that up. Regardless, if we cannot find specific factors to differentiate at-risk people from low-risk people, there can’t be a plan for isolating the former. We ultimately lack enough knowledge about the behavior of this novel and peculiar virus, and making critical decisions from a dearth of knowledge is inviting tragic error. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/42 "2020-04-13T04:22:27Z")
> [@Francis\_Vaughan](#): > > That is a one in 10,000 death rate. Now imagine that the vaccine was known to have a 1 in 10,000 death rate when administered. There would be rioting in the streets if the government mandated everyone be vaccinated. But that is exactly the same as “protect the vulnerable and open up to gain herd immunity.” Except, in reality, we could never keep the CFR that low. It would seem the [NYC](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-new-york-city/) CFR for those under 65 is close to that. For people below 17, it is 0%. For 18-45 it is 0.006% and 45 to 64 is 0.04%. They don’t have combined numbers and I don’t know how many are in each category. If we just average (which is dubious to do with the rates like this) we’d get 0.015%. 0.01% CFR for those under 65 would mean maybe 30,000 deaths. A lot, to be sure, and if they all happened within weeks of each other we’d be screwed. But we need to get to 200,000,000 immune. Approximately. So maybe we can identify 200,000,000 of THE least likely to have a reaction. Even if we are at 0.01% CFR, that would mean 20,000 deaths. I’m not sure that would cause rioting if we spread that out over the next 2 months. 300 deaths a day? That is well below what we are seeing now. At some point we can hopefully get a good handle on the CFR and who really is at most risk as well as development of treatment for those that do react badly to the virus. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/43 "2020-04-13T04:22:38Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > I’m not anti vaccine. Not even close. But there are times when people have severe reactions to vaccines. It happens. Given that whatever vaccine we come up with for this will be new, there are going to things that need to be learned in administering it. Or are you advocating that whenever a vaccine is available there won’t be any serious reactions in anyone at any time? That is a given already, the anti-vaccine vibe comes from acting as it \*\*should \*\*be a show stopper. > [@cmosdes](#): > > I’m not just asking questions. You offered a half assed article about how herd immunity won’t work and didn’t like the answer that it was mostly worthless. Great. Actually the point was that the information is available to be found, unless you are admitting that an immigrant from a developed nation with English as a second language can find that easy to find information and you don’t. > [@cmosdes](#): > > The quotes you provided seem to suggest you feel we really do need to get to a vaccine before we can roam free again. That is certainly one way to go about this. I happen to think that is impractical. Actually the cite goes to mention what it can be done before a vaccine appears. > [@cmosdes](#): > > I had addressed the Singapore/China angle of giving everyone an app and tracking that way. I deleted that part because I didn’t want to ramble on. Personally, again, I don’t think that kind of thing will happen in the US. Maybe it would work in other places and I could be way off that it would work here. Even with an app, there are going to be people that slip through, and then those at risk will be exposed. Allowing tracking can happen if it is on a volunteer basis, and as it happens in real life I do think that many will subscribe if there are incentives (Besides going back to work, a bit more support from the government if the ones suspected of infections say yes to the app) - I’m always impressed on how much Americans do allow for things like that when they get apps for free, app that do that very same thing that you are worrying about here. > [@cmosdes](#): > > As for testing, if testing lags by days, which is what you talked about, imagine how many people one orderly in an assisted living facility can infect in that time. They get tested on Thursday, Monday they are told they are clear, but over the weekend their wife/kid/whoever infected them or they picked up something at the grocery story. Unless you are advocating that people can’t move around at all and can’t visit with anyone ever again. :sigh: I don’t need to imagine it, that was done in Korea and Singapore > **[How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down)** > > It's one of several places in Asia that did not use draconian lockdown strategies to slow the spread of the coronavirus. > [@cmosdes](#): > > No, I’m not just asking questions. I really am very curious how others view this moving on from here. As pointed before, it looks that you are not getting good information, can you do us a favor and tell us what are your sources? ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/44 "2020-04-13T04:28:47Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > It would seem the [NYC](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-new-york-city/) CFR for those under 65 is close to that. For people below 17, it is 0%. For 18-45 it is 0.006% and 45 to 64 is 0.04%. They don’t have combined numbers and I don’t know how many are in each category. If we just average (which is dubious to do with the rates like this) we’d get 0.015%. I believe that this graph is not deaths per case. It’s deaths per people who live in New York City. So the actual \*\*case \*\*fatality rate will be much higher ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/45 "2020-04-13T05:01:43Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > That is a given already, the anti-vaccine vibe comes from acting as it \*\*should \*\*be a show stopper. I’m not sure how to parse this. Suffice it to say, I’m most definitely not an anti-vaxxer and very much look for scientific basis for decisions. I drive my friends nuts with stuff like that. A friend said she saw some guy on YouTube describing how to disinfect items in the house and the video recommended 409. I asked her if she looked up whether 409 actually kills the virus. I spent time looking for the EPA registration number by hunting down the MSDS for the stuff and then looking it up. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > Actually the point was that the information is available to be found, unless you are admitting that an immigrant from a developed nation with English as a second language can find that easy to find information and you don’t. I don’t have a source to tell me vaccines could be harmful. It was an assumption, and if it is a bad one that is certainly a learning opportunity for me. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > Actually the cite goes to mention what it can be done before a vaccine appears. I’m completely not seeing in that article where they talk about anything but vaccinating people and how herd immunity through exposure won’t work. All they say through the entire article is that we need to get herd immunity through vaccination. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > Allowing tracking can happen if it is on a volunteer basis, and as it happens in real life I do think that many will subscribe if there are incentives (Besides going back to work, a bit more support from the government if the ones suspected of infections say yes to the app) - I’m always impressed on how much Americans do allow for things like that when they get apps for free, app that do that very same thing that you are worrying about here. Yes, Americans do seem to let ourselves be tracked in many ways. That is true. Maybe they will volunteer to be tracked one other way. I don’t see it happening, but I have no study to back that up. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > :sigh: I don’t need to imagine it, that was done in Korea and Singapore > [How South Korea Reined In Coronavirus Without Shutting Everything Down : Goats and Soda : NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down) I have coworkers in Singapore who told me last week they are now on lockdown. Just looking at the graphs for cases in Singapore it would appear they have an uptick in the case rate. So, it would seem Singapore doesn’t exactly have this nailed. Even with the restrictions they had previously, they are still looking at an increasing rate. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > As pointed before, it looks that you are not getting good information, can you do us a favor and tell us what are your sources? What information do I have wrong? I admit, the suspicions there could be serious side effects with some people with any newly developed vaccine is just a guess. As is the assumption Americans aren’t likely to tolerate having to download an App to get on a bus. What other information do I have that’s bad? ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/46 "2020-04-13T05:03:11Z")
> [@Aspidistra](#): > > I believe that this graph is not deaths per case. It’s deaths per people who live in New York City. So the actual \*\*case \*\*fatality rate will be much higher Excellent point. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/47 "2020-04-13T06:00:45Z")
Well, I grant you Singapore, but Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea buck global lockdown trend. > **[Article expired](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/article-expired/)** > > News on Japan, Business News, Opinion, Sports, Entertainment and More What is getting clear is that you still think that the rate of people that could have a trouble with the vaccine will be significant enough, past vaccination efforts of similar diseases shows that it can be a concern, but not as significant as you assume. > **[International Consensus (ICON): allergic reactions to vaccines - World...](https://waojournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40413-016-0120-5)** > > Background Routine immunization, one of the most effective public health interventions, has effectively reduced death and morbidity due to a variety of infectious diseases. However, allergic reactions to vaccines occur very rarely and can be life... And do not avoid it, again, what are your sources of information? ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/48 "2020-04-13T12:27:19Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Well, I grant you Singapore, but Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea buck global lockdown trend. > > [https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/08/asia-pacific/hong-kong-taiwan-south-korea-buck-global-lockdown-trend/](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/08/asia-pacific/hong-kong-taiwan-south-korea-buck-global-lockdown-trend/) > > What is getting clear is that you still think that the rate of people that could have a trouble with the vaccine will be significant enough, past vaccination efforts of similar diseases shows that it can be a concern, but not as significant as you assume. > > [International Consensus (ICON): allergic reactions to vaccines | World Allergy Organization Journal | Full Text](https://waojournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40413-016-0120-5) > > And do not avoid it, again, what are your sources of information? I listed all my sources for everything I talked about in my posts. What sources are you referring to? I wasn’t avoided it. I answered for every point I made where I came by my information. You avoided answering where in the articles it mentions what to do without herd immunity. While you seem to feel you can just google and quote any source that sounds good, I do not. So yes, I can find information, even information that might confirm whatever perception I have. That doesn’t make it a good source. If I were looking for sources, for something like this I’d be looking to the CDC or WHO or any of the tracking sites that seem to have a good reputation. My sources for vaccines being risky I told you. My own thoughts. I could be way off. I never said there would be a 1:1 trade off in risk from vaccine to risk from disease. But it still seems like there would be a risk. I’m asking you to correct that misperception if you have a source for it. You even said yourself there is some risk. So whatever size risk that is, vaccines are not going to be a perfect solution. We are still going to cause severe reactions in at least some people. Of the two of us quoting sources here, so far two of yours have been debunked. That article is rubbish (and doesn’t say what you say it says) and Singapore is not the example you want it to be. It really isn’t me who is having trouble with reputable sources. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/49 "2020-04-13T13:55:17Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > My sources for vaccines being risky I told you. My own thoughts. That is really just an argument from ignorance. > [@cmosdes](#): > > Of the two of us quoting sources here, so far two of yours have been debunked. That article is rubbish (and doesn’t say what you say it says) and Singapore is not the example you want it to be. It really isn’t me who is having trouble with reputable sources. Followed by an argument that ignores that **I granted your point**. You actually pointed at an anecdote that I then checked, I then found that indeed Singapore just recently returned to a lockdown, so I gave you the point, but everybody can see that you do want to make it personal and ignore that I granted that to you. You did not grant that I was correct on the other countries. And fie to that argument about own thoughts, no man is an island, most of our thoughts came from what we use as our sources of information and our peers or elders. Gut feelings from them or ours are not much reliable and they should not be looked at when lives are on the line. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/50 "2020-04-13T14:51:07Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > That is really just an argument from ignorance. > Followed by an argument that ignores that **I granted your point**. You actually pointed at an anecdote that I then checked, I then found that indeed Singapore just recently returned to a lockdown, so I gave you the point, but everybody can see that you do want to make it personal and ignore that I granted that to you. You did not grant that I was correct on the other countries. > > And fie to that argument about own thoughts, no man is an island, most of our thoughts came from what we use as our sources of information and our peers or elders. Gut feelings from them or ours are not much reliable and they should not be looked at when lives are on the line. You are the one that keeps blabbering on about sources and asking for them. But it is you who has faulty sources. I don’t care if you “granted me the point.” It isn’t a discussion about whether Singapore or any other country is on lockdown. You’ve turned this into a discussion about sources. You did that, not me. And I’m now showing that your sources are dubious, at best. It makes no difference if other countries are on lockdown until you move away from trying to pull some sort of “gotcha!” on sources. And yet again, you are continually avoiding addressing the article you quoted and what it actually says. For the manyeth time… show where that article talks about what to do beyond vaccines. My sources? I’m reading yours. Yours appear to be lacking. What are your sources? Where are you getting your information? How did you find that article to begin with? WHAT ARE YOUR SOURCES? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/51 "2020-04-13T15:04:45Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > You are the one that keeps blabbering on about sources and asking for them. But it is you how has faulty sources. I don’t care if you “granted me the point.” It isn’t a discussion about whether Singapore or any other country is on lockdown. You’ve turned this into a discussion about sources. You did that, not me. **All that for you to not realize that the source I gave does not talk about Singapore** , I actually did overreach when I mentioned the cite and conceded that I missed that Singapore is in lockdown, but the cite stands indeed as it referred only to South Korea. > **[How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down)** > > It's one of several places in Asia that did not use draconian lockdown strategies to slow the spread of the coronavirus. > [@cmosdes](#): > > And I’m now showing that your sources are dubious, at best. Nope. the sources were ok, I just had a brain fart. > [@cmosdes](#): > > It makes no difference if other countries are on lockdown until you move away from trying to pull some sort of “gotcha!” on sources. Funny that you seem to make it an important point to dismiss. > [@cmosdes](#): > > And yet again, you are continually avoiding addressing the article you quoted and what is actually says. For the manyeth time… show where that article talks about what to do beyond vaccines. My sources? I’m reading yours. Yours appear to be lacking. > > What are your sources? Where are you getting your information? How did you find that article to begin with? WHAT ARE YOUR SOURCES? From the Cite I made already that you claim it had nothing of the sort: > **[How San Francisco plans to trace every coronavirus case and contact](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998758/how-san-francisco-plans-to-trace-every-coronavirus-case-and-contact/)** > > Assembling a team to identity and isolate infections could be a crucial step in getting the city back to work. > [@](#): > > The task force will interview every patient who tests positive and provide necessary support to ensure that all are completely isolating themselves, down to helping them find and get to shelter if necessary. They also expect to reach out to between three and five people that patients came into contact with in the preceding days. They’ll alert them they may have been exposed, ask them to limit their contacts, and either encourage them to go in for a test or bring one to them. Those who test positive will trigger additional rounds of interviews and contact tracing. > > “We basically realized that if we ever hope to move beyond shelter in place, we need a robust containment strategy that’s sustainable and can identify every new case and contact,” says Michael Reid, an assistant professor of infectious diseases at UCSF, who is coordinating the university’s contributions to the effort. “ **And that needs to be in place at least, in the medium term** , until we’ve got a vaccine.” So yeah. And I do agree with what \*\*Stranger On A Train \*\*says too. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/52 "2020-04-13T15:58:36Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > From the Cite I made already that you claim it had nothing of the sort: > > [How San Francisco plans to trace every coronavirus case and contact | MIT Technology Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998758/how-san-francisco-plans-to-trace-every-coronavirus-case-and-contact/) This was your original cite: [https://www.healthline.com/health/he...unity#takeaway](https://www.healthline.com/health/he...unity#takeaway) You are moving goalposts in a huge way. What is hilarious is that you are accusing me of having bad information but so far you are the one bringing bad information to this discussions. You want to say it is okay because you also brought good information. Personally, I’d rather be discussing options to get out of this, but you turned this into a discussion about sources. If you want to talk about options to get out of this, lets do that, please. I’d love to. Then the Hong Kong, South Korea and other places that are taking different approaches is something to discuss. But if all you are going to do is stomp your foot and demand to know sources, then I’m going to point out where your sources are wrong and the other stuff is not relevant. Do you see the difference? If our roles were reversed, and I had mentioned Singapore, you’d be demanding I give you sources. Again, I don’t want to go that way. I want to discuss real options on how to fix this. The original article you quoted and I quoted back to you does not do that. At all. If there are discussions to be had on how testing can realistically be implemented or social changes we can make that would effectively work in the US, let’s talk about those. Please. So far what I hear is that you seem to think the same controls that are in place in places like Hong Kong, etc. can be done in the US. That seems far fetched to me. The culture in the US is very, very different (I hope you don’t need a cite for that) and much larger and diverse. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/53 "2020-04-13T16:26:10Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > This was your original cite: > [https://www.healthline.com/health/he...unity#takeaway](https://www.healthline.com/health/he...unity#takeaway) > > You are moving goalposts in a huge way. Not really, it is clear that I reacted to your complaint that the original cite was not up to your standards, so I already did make amends, it is really underwhelming when you ignore the corrections made to claim that I’m \*\*still \*\*wrong, when that is not the case. At least in the end you finally acknowledge that the cites were valid so we can continue: > [@cmosdes](#): > > So far what I hear is that you seem to think the same controls that are in place in places like Hong Kong, etc. can be done in the US. That seems far fetched to me. The culture in the US is very, very different (I hope you don’t need a cite for that) and much larger and diverse. Well, yeah, it is diverse, and different. But here is time for one thing I saw, one coworker showed me an image from a church advising their followers: “Jesus came riding an ass, please leave yours at home” and then one notices how [in Kentucky, churches that still insist on having massive masses are served with orders to now quarantine themselves](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/12/kentucky-churches-hold-in-person-easter-services-despite-order/2980456001/). Now, the points here are that even in Kentucky most churches did opted to comply by doing remote services. The ones in the cite were the few that decided to ignore what needs to be done. Another point is that even when being diverse and different, pandemics do not care much about opinions or that diversity, IMHO a lot of the things you think are impossible can come to be by giving people - specially the ones in need or the ones that would complain - an incentive to use the apps for tracing and other things that need to be done **before a vaccine comes**. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/54 "2020-04-13T16:31:55Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > QFT. The economy is not closed down. It’s been disrupted but it is not closed down by any means. The statistic I heard was that 10% of the workforce has been laid off. That means 90% hasn’t. The 90% may include some people who are still drawing a paycheck while not working, but most of them are still on the job. > > Right now, the economy is like a computer running in safe mode. All the important processes and functions are still running. Some bells and whistles have been disabled. Most of the disabled processes are at the top layer - the user interface, as it were and are highly visible, while the stuff that’s still running is the more opaque stuff we take for granted and don’t think about much. > > And, like a computer running in safe mode - the bells and whistles have been disabled in order to keep the rest of the machine operational. The important stuff. If we lose a significant portion of the viral sectors of the economy, we won’t just be inconvenienced anymore. We’ll be screwed. Unfortunately, I don’t think you’re right here. The US workforce size is ~ 165 million people. Our headline unemployment rate in February, before any of this started, was 3.5%. In the past three weeks alone, we’ve seen 16.8 million people file new unemployment claims - an additional 10.2% of the workforce. So we’re looking at at least 13.7%, perhaps minus a few here or there who managed to find work at grocery stores or Amazon. But that’s almost certainly an underestimate. Not everyone files right away: some people don’t know how, some people are lazy, some people don’t know they’re eligible, and some people tried and failed because state unemployment reporting systems can’t scale to how many people suddenly need them. Remember, the absolute worst week during the _Great_ Recession was 650 thousand claims, and now we’re seeing weeks with 6 million. It’s almost certainly higher. Unfortunately, it gets worse: a lot of people still have their jobs, but aren’t producing at full value. Their employers are holding out hope that they’ll be able to reopen, and they’d like to still have their employees. If the employees are hourly, maybe they’ve had their hours cut. If they’re salaried, maybe they’ve been asked to take a salary reduction. But their employers can’t keep this up forever, and if the economy doesn’t start the upwards part of its vee soon (and it almost certainly won’t), they’ll lose their jobs, too. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/55 "2020-04-13T16:36:48Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I think there’s an interesting discussion to be had here, but the Ezra Klein column is terrible. It’s just a word jumble. I don’t get the beef with Ezra Klein’s article. DSeid had some good points about needing to learn more as other countries try to open up, and those are good points, but I see that as a point to supplement what Klein has written about: some think tanks (and individuals) are starting to put together economy reopening plans based on what we know now. It’s good that people are thinking about how this will work. We can revise those plans when better data comes into focus. In the meantime, however, all of those plans have extreme downsides: heavy surveillance; mass, mandatory testing that isn’t actually available currently; or continued, rolling economic shutdowns. I’m glad he wrote the article, I’m glad I read it, and I fail to see why you’d call it a word jumble. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/56 "2020-04-13T17:52:27Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Well, yeah, it is diverse, and different. But here is time for one thing I saw, one coworker showed me an image from a church advising their followers: “Jesus came riding an ass, please leave yours at home” and then one notices how [in Kentucky, churches that still insist on having massive masses are served with orders to now quarantine themselves](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/12/kentucky-churches-hold-in-person-easter-services-despite-order/2980456001/). Now, the points here are that even in Kentucky most churches did opted to comply by doing remote services. The ones in the cite were the few that decided to ignore what needs to be done. > > Another point is that even when being diverse and different, pandemics do not care much about opinions or that diversity, IMHO a lot of the things you think are impossible can come to be by giving people - specially the ones in need or the ones that would complain - an incentive to use the apps for tracing and other things that need to be done **before a vaccine comes**. I understand you are saying the examples you provided are rare exceptions. I doubt either of us can make anything but a guess as to how common that kind of exception will be if everyone is asked to do tracking with an app. But if you have information that indicates the US is likely to be highly compliant, that would be great information. I’m amazed at the number of people in this country that still think we didn’t land on the moon, the earth is flat, 9-11 was an inside job, etc. In other words, I don’t hold out much hope these types of people are uncommon enough to make tracking viable. ---
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/57 "2020-04-13T19:56:26Z")
I’m not sure what the correct path to open is but it better be soon. Abiding by the shelter orders is slowly slipping. Too many local officials and governors are tightening the screws because they hear of 5 people chatting in the parking lot of a park or whatever so they shut the bike trails and the hiking trails and the boat ramps for everyone. Everyday there seems to be a few more locations like this and a few more stories make the rounds of citations issued for just being out and about for no officially valid reasons. Opening outdoor rec areas to those that wear a mask when within spitting distance of others would be a good start. Just start someplace relatively safe and play it by ear. Sunday drives could make a comeback as well as the car hop like at Sonic. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2020, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/58 "2020-04-13T20:47:11Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > At least that’s the conclusion Ezra Klein comes to in Vox after studying all of them. What do you guys think? > > [Coronavirus economy plans are clear: No return to normal in 2020 - Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment) This is the formula that has been working in other countries. Taiwan isn’t the only country doing the gps tracking thing. If you want the economy to start up gain, this is the only option right now unless you want a stop and go economy where we slam on the brakes every 6 weeks as the slope of the curve start to steepen. Cops pull you over and you are not on the app, you get a ticket. But otherwise you can go on your way. You want to enter my store? You must have the app otherwise I am not allowed to open the store. You want to go to a little league game? You must have the app or your kid cannot take the field. Religious types will call this the mark of the devil. ---
**Author:** ![Rusalka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecd19e/32.png) [@Rusalka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rusalka)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/59 "2020-04-14T01:17:36Z")
> [@cmosdes](#): > > "Scientists don’t know if you can contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 more than once. " > That gets bandied about her A LOT. If that is true of this virus then science has a lot of splainin’ to do. There are literally no verified cases of reinfection. None. A couple of dubious ones, but none verified. Also, if reinfection is possible with this virus after just a few months, it would be counter to pretty much every other virus humans survive. What about Chicken Pox? It can reappear as Shingles and is infectious to people who have never had it. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2020, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591/60 "2020-04-14T01:46:15Z")
> [@Rusalka](#): > > What about Chicken Pox? It can reappear as Shingles and is infectious to people who have never had it. This keeps coming up. Chickenpox is special in that you never fully recover from it. Once you are over the first infection some virus remains secreted in the nerve ganglions near your spine. They seem to be protected from the immune system here. They can reawaken (it seems stress, or other factors have a role in this) and they then travel down the nerves from the ganglions. This leads to the characteristic pattern of skin eruptions, usually restricted to one side of the body - the side where the ganglion was. Shingles sufferers do shed virus particles, and can be infectious, but nowhere nearly as bad as a chicken pox sufferer. Shingles is not a new chickenpox infection. Along other herpes viruses, you are never actually rid of it. Nobody seems to raise cold sores as a problem, but it is no different. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/all-the-plans-to-reopen-the-economy-are-terrible-in-different-ways/851591.md?page=4)