# Alt-history: who wins a Biden/Bernie/Hillary 2016 race? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 21, 2020, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630 "2020-08-21T02:49:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/1 "2020-08-21T02:49:52Z")
The mention just now in the convention coverage that Biden decided not to run in 2016 because of the death of his son Beau made me wonder. If Beau had not died and Biden ran, do Joe and Hillary split the establishment vote and give a path to Bernie? Or did Bernie benefit so much from the anti-Hillary feeling out there that in this alternative world, he is the afterthought everyone expected him to be? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/2 "2020-08-21T03:30:58Z")
Clinton. Easily. About half of Bernie’s support was anyone but Clinton folk. These people would have supported Joe and Bernie would have never caught fire. Clinton wins without breaking a sweat. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/3 "2020-08-21T04:44:27Z")
I’m partially with you in that I think Bernie would have lost badly in this scenario. But I think there were also a lot of “any normal Democrat who’s really a Democrat and not a socialist carpetbagger” voters. How can you be so sure a lot of them would not have defected from Hillary to Joe? ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/4 "2020-08-21T09:57:27Z")
Going to C+P my post on this subject from another thread * * * Biden would have won in November 2016. Trump vs Hillary was a race between the two most unpopular nominees the two parties have ever put forward. No one has that strong feeling towards ol’ Joe. Not now and definitely not four years ago when he was the incumbent vice president, at the peak of his popularity and no doubt over his stamina. But to have won in November 2016 he would have had to win the nomination. I do not think in a Democratic primary he beats Hillary. He probably stops Bernie Sanders ever getting traction by splitting the white working class vote but a distant second like Sanders. Because after electing the first black president it was clear the party wanted to follow up by shattering another glass ceiling. Electing the first female president. Democrats like Biden but he was just another old white man in that context. Furthermore Hillary is more of a powerhouse than Biden. That brought her lots of enemies but also lots of high profile allies. She was never short of campaign money whereas Biden struggled to get through the 2020 primary campaign with adequate funds. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/5 "2020-08-21T12:32:01Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > How can you be so sure a lot of them would not have defected from Hillary to Joe? Polling from 2015 before Biden decided not to enter the race was pretty clear. e.g. [CNN poll from May 2015](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/01/2016.poll.pdf) Clinton 60 Biden 14 Sanders 10 [Quinnipiac from March 2015](https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2172) Clinton 56 Biden 10 Sanders 4 Or any other poll from around then. All other candidates were fighting for the half of Dem primary voters that weren’t on board with Clinton from go. She had more than a majority almost the entire time and on her worst day her average was never below 40%. There’s a reason that Biden and other candidates stayed out of her way and it wasn’t because of anything the DNC did. It was because she had the support of a majority of primary voters pretty much the whole time. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/6 "2020-08-21T14:11:11Z")
Yes, I suspect Hillary would’ve gotten the nomination anyway. President Obama would surely have remained neutral, with both his VP and his former SECSTATE in the race, and a lot of Dems wanted to see Hillary become the first woman presidential candidate of a major party. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/7 "2020-08-21T14:26:30Z")
I’m not so sure. Recall that in 2015 Bernie Sanders was a not particular well known Senator from Vermont who was technically not even a Democratic. And he almost defeated Hillary. Biden’s support among African Americans and the prestige of being VP for the past eight years would have given him a strong shot at the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/8 "2020-08-21T16:01:54Z")
Sanders didn’t almost defeat Hillary though. Her delegate lead over him in April 2016 was bigger than Biden’s lead over him. The only difference is this time he saw the writing on the wall and didn’t drag on an unwinnable race. Sanders got crushed in Super Tuesday states that four years ago he won. That tells me his support among the white working class particularly was not as robust _for_ him as it was _against_ Hillary. In a three-way Biden and Sanders would split that segment of the vote, and Biden and Hillary would split the African American vote because both have a relationship with the African American community. Hillary would beat both men in the other voter blocs in my opinion. I was a super Obama fan early in the 2008 race but one of the reasons why that race was so tightly contested between him and Hillary for the nomination even though he had the momentum, grassroots movement and was a media darling, every time they had a debate … she came out of it well, if not the winner on the night more often than not. Biden was also briefly in that race but no one knew or cared at that point in time about him. Shows how amazing things can work out. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/9 "2020-08-21T16:33:32Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > And he almost defeated Hillary. Your hypothesis in this alt-reality depends on a different alt-reality. Noted. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/10 "2020-08-21T17:01:38Z")
Sanders did better popular vote wise in every single state in 2016 vs 2020. The only reason he did better this year is that the opposing vote was split between multiple candidates before they dropped out and coalesced behind Joe. Now if Joe was continuing to fall behind Clinton, I think he would’ve dropped out endorsed her. But if Clinton was behind, I think she would’ve held on for a lot longer. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/11 "2020-08-21T18:21:46Z")
Hillary wasnt unpopular until the GOP/Kremlin hate machine kicked in. In this alt hist, Hillary would still have won. Then lost. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/12 "2020-08-21T18:29:32Z")
I don’t Sanders’ position would have changed much. He has a significant minority of support in the Democratic party. It was a much larger minority than anyone suspected existed when Sanders started his campaign. The problem is that while a substantial minority is better than a small minority, it’s still not the majority. And Sanders and his followers want to ignore this reality and expect to be treated as if they are the majority of the party. I don’t know if it’s fair to compare Clinton’s poll numbers in 2016 with Biden’s. From what we know, Clinton was planning on running for President and Biden wasn’t. So Clinton was laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign early on and her strong poll numbers reflected this. If Biden had been making a similar effort, I believe his poll numbers would have been similar to hers. Personally, if it had come down to a choice between the three of them, I would have voted for Clinton in the primary. And I would have voted for any of them ahead of Trump or any other of the 2016 Republican nominees in the general election. Except maybe if it had been a choice between Pataki and Sanders. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/13 "2020-08-21T18:36:42Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Your hypothesis in this alt-reality depends on a different alt-reality. Noted. OK, “almost defeated” was an exaggeration. But Sanders did mount a significant challenge to the Clinton campaign in 2016. Biden would certainly have been able to do the same, but even better, imho. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/14 "2020-08-21T18:41:22Z")
Sanders had no hope after Super Tuesday. Biden wouldn’t have either. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/15 "2020-08-21T21:34:21Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Hillary wasnt unpopular until the GOP/Kremlin hate machine kicked in. The GOP / RW media part of that hate machine has been running almost full tilt since Bill was elected the first time. Including all the time Bush 2 was in the WH. Yes, the Russians really did kick it into overdrive once they got serious about affecting the election in around 2014. But Hillary hate wasn’t a new effect in 2015 or 2016 when it’d be affecting the alt-history we’re discussing. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2020, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/16 "2020-08-21T22:21:10Z")
Yeah, but her popularity didnt take a deep nose dive until then- and of course the Comey memo made things way worse. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/17 "2020-08-22T03:24:51Z")
If Biden thought he actually had a good shot of winning the nomination in 2016 I think he would have run even despite his son’s death. What Beau’s death made him unwilling to do was to endure all of the stress of a long shot campaign that would probably be a wasted effort. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/18 "2020-08-22T04:04:21Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Hillary wasnt unpopular until the GOP/Kremlin hate machine kicked in. Which was 1992. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/19 "2020-08-22T15:34:15Z")
I think Hillary still wins and it’s all but over by NY in 2016. Bernie is reduced to nothing but a gadfly, he will get a cult on college campuses and that’s about it, perhaps he picks off a couple wins in caucus states. Remember the caucus schedule was weird in 2016, holding caucuses on the Saturday The main difference being that Hillary doesn’t run away with the black vote as the campaign hits the south, Biden does quite well too. But, Hillary still racks up more delegates and by the time Hillary wins big in NY, Biden exits stage left. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2020, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630/20 "2020-08-22T17:18:46Z")
Not sure who wins the primary (or the general election in this scenario), but I don’t think Bernie gets nearly as much traction in this scenario. It would be framed by the media as, and would actually turn into, a Biden vs. Hillary race. And huh, I just realized something weird. In a hypothetical Biden vs. Hillary race, hypothetical 2016 me would almost certainly have voted for Hillary over Biden. _Actual_ 2016 me voted for Bernie over Hillary. _Actual_ 2020 me voted for Biden over Bernie. (I preferred Warren to both, but she had dropped out by then.) ??? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/alt-history-who-wins-a-biden-bernie-hillary-2016-race/918630.md?page=2)