Altering Hurricane Strength

[watchwolf49]

@wolfpup

@watchwolf49

[snip] … Shame on you, Unca Cece, more intense and more frequent hurricanes has not be demonstrated, that’s pure speculation, we need another 50 years of data to make that claim {Cite} … [snap]

That particular article has been cited in various forums here at least three times by assorted “climate skeptics”, but as I described here, parts of that article are quite misleading.

Which parts of the paper are misleading you? … perhaps I can help out and explain …

@wolfpup

Yes. This is the landmark paper that discussion is based on. This paper primarily describes modeling results, but it cites additional supporting empirical data (Klotzbach [2006], Wu et al. [2008], etc.).

Harry C claims to have read the article, it appears you have only read the abstract … and once again you haven’t addressed the issue of lack of data, when was the satellite launched into orbit that is now measuring SST’s? … do you honestly believe someone was sent out with a thermometer to make a comprehensive survey of temperatures? …

Crossthreading:

@wolfpup

[snip] … indeed it’s possible that mid-atmosphere dynamics like wind shear may actually reduce the number of hurricanes with increased land-ocean warming … [snap]

Thank you for reminding us that you agree with my claim in post #4 that we cannot factually claim hurricane frequencies are increasing …

The Vallarini, Vecchi (2012) cite makes the following conclusion:

[snip] … Under uniform SST warming, these results indicate that we should expect a decrease in North Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency, small changes in the typical intensity of the strongest storms, and that storms should spend a longer amount of time as the strongest storms … [snap]

Again, thank you for posting a citation that confirms my claims …

@wolfpup

Fascinating logic! Especially fascinating because one of your fellow deniers claimed up in post #4 that: “more intense and more frequent hurricanes has not be demonstrated, that’s pure speculation, we need another 50 years of data to make that claim”. Yes, we need at least 100 years of data to claim that hurricanes are getting stronger when the data is going in the wrong direction for climate change deniers, but when hurricane intensities take a downturn, then by golly, a mere ten years or so is enough to prove it’s all a Chinese hoax!

No, that’s not how it works. Here’s how it works. SSTs and annual hurricane energies tend to be cyclic phenomena, and one can see a roughly ten-year cycle in the patterns, due in part to large-scale circulation systems like the ENSO (El Nino) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Looking at those graphs a year or two ago one might have predicted a return to the upward trend, and 2017 was the year it happened. The PDI – which is the most sensitive measure of hurricane destructive power – will be huge for this year. I don’t know what it will be but I do know that the ACE as of right now – November 5 – sits at 227.6, which is 234% of normal at this time of year. Check that out relative to the ACE graph in your link. By my quick eyeballing only five hurricane seasons have surpassed it since records have been kept.

So, no, the PDI is not falling, except as part of a normal cyclical pattern, and as always, the attempt to deny the reality of climate change or its influence on extreme weather is based on faulty premises.

10 years is too short a time interval … and really the 50 year interval is minimal to be climatically relevant … climatologists use averages in order to filter out the short term fluctuations, like the mesoscale “ENSO (El Nino) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (and why you left out the Arctic Oscillation is beyond my ability to understand) … MY POINT, in case you missed it, is that we only have 50 years of data, and thus only one average value … we have to wait another 50 years to get a second average to compare to the first … we’re only talking about an upper bound of 8 mb more intense in 100 years … we’re four generations from any negative effect of global warming, if a lousy 8 mb is a negative effect …

“The PDI – which is the most sensitive measure of hurricane destructive power”

What was the PDI of Tropical Storm Harvey as he laid waste to Houston, TX? … how does PDI explain how Harvey retained tropical characteristic while his eye was over land? …

Speaking of eye walls … there’s one hell of a lot we don’t understand about hurricanes … let’s keep that in mind when we make these profound and absolute predictions about something we don’t fully understand …