# Am I deluded for thinking Trump will not even seek re-election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 16, 2018, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232 "2018-06-16T23:36:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2018, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/41 "2018-06-18T17:10:33Z")
> [@drad\_dog](#): > > Where is analysis of potential blackmail, skeletons, lawyers etc? OMG lets talk real world. Okay, let’s talk real world. Lawyers? Let’s say Mueller drops a metric crapload of evidence. What happens then? It goes to Congress for impeachment action. Congress isn’t going to impeach Trump. Sure, maybe if the House goes Democratic, they could get an impeachment bill through, but it would never get a 2/3 vote in the Senate. There are scholars who argue that[even Nixon could have beaten conviction by the Senate.](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/what-would-a-nixon-impeachment-trial-have-looked-like) Skeletons? Blackmail? He cheated on his first wife with his second wife, he cheated on his current wife with a porn actress. He had pageant contestants claiming he walked in on them. He was recorded boasting he could grab women by the pussy. and that came out BEFORE he was elected. What horrible secret would have to come out to make his supporters say, “Gee, I never that he was THIS bad?” Meanwhile, Trump keeps attacking the investigations and the investigators, keeps bragging about the economy, keeps blaming Democrats for their obstructionism, and the crowds keep cheering. You want the real world to get rid Trump? Better focus on voter registration and Democratic turnout both in 2018 and especially 2020. Anything else is wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2018, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/42 "2018-06-18T17:12:02Z")
I think he has more of a chance of not seeking it than most. If, as Wolff’s book posits, he never thought he’d win the first time, I think he could drop out, UNLESS he’s making more money as president, than not. I think money is more important to him. Plus, it’s just got to be exhausting compared to what he was doing before, he’s old, I could see wanting a break. There is no doubt in my mind he’s more angry all the time than he was. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2018, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/43 "2018-06-18T17:25:55Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Okay, let’s talk real world. Lawyers? Let’s say Mueller drops a metric crapload of evidence. What happens then? It goes to Congress for impeachment action. > > Congress isn’t going to impeach Trump. Sure, maybe if the House goes Democratic, they could get an impeachment bill through, but it would never get a 2/3 vote in the Senate. There are scholars who argue that[even Nixon could have beaten conviction by the Senate.](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/what-would-a-nixon-impeachment-trial-have-looked-like) > > Skeletons? Blackmail? He cheated on his first wife with his second wife, he cheated on his current wife with a porn actress. He had pageant contestants claiming he walked in on them. He was recorded boasting he could grab women by the pussy. and that came out BEFORE he was elected. What horrible secret would have to come out to make his supporters say, “Gee, I never that he was THIS bad?” > > Meanwhile, Trump keeps attacking the investigations and the investigators, keeps bragging about the economy, keeps blaming Democrats for their obstructionism, and the crowds keep cheering. > > You want the real world to get rid Trump? Better focus on voter registration and Democratic turnout both in 2018 and especially 2020. Anything else is wishful thinking. “Meanwhile trump keeps…” I just have a feeling that you’re letting recency get in the way of thinking. He doesn’t have super powers. The events of the last two years, if any of a number of them occur in a different sequence he would not have been able to stay the course in the campaign. He used surprise and stealth, in that we didn’t know how debased the truth could get in front of our eyes. We need a little time to catch up to the game. Trumps base is not enough to get reelected. They are a minority, they are smaller than they were in 2016, and they will lose members who are women and other offended parties. They will be facing a world that lived through 2016. Look at Avennati. He is what trump world looks like from here on in. Donald is an ambulance rolling by. He is going to be attracting a lot of people with the financial interests of putting him in jail. That’s what democracy looks like under stress. Do you think that Mueller is just “ignorable” now? There are theories posited on TV about it, but we have been getting a lot of partial and misinformation from TV too. It’s not reality. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2018, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/44 "2018-06-18T19:05:13Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > The stuff that has happened in the last year seemed impossible a year and a half ago, didn’t it? Then there’s no reason to engage in any level of political analysis, predictions, or strategy at all. It’s all utterly pointless. Or are you saying that the default assumption from here on in should be complete Trump success? ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2018, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/45 "2018-06-18T23:11:48Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Then there’s no reason to engage in any level of political analysis, predictions, or strategy at all. It’s all utterly pointless. > > Or are you saying that the default assumption from here on in should be complete Trump success? All would be authoritarians rely on the idea that “It is a done deal. Nothing you can do about it” for any success. It is #1 in their arsenal. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2018, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/46 "2018-06-18T23:53:39Z")
> [@drad\_dog](#): > > … Trumps base is not enough to get reelected. They are a minority, they are smaller than they were in 2016, and they will lose members who are women and other offended parties. They will be facing a world that lived through 2016. … Meanwhile, back in reality, “[Trump approval rating ties highest point of his presidency](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/392817-poll-trump-approval-rating-ties-highest-point-of-his-presidency)”. That’s after the electorate lived through 2016, and 2017, and almost half of 2018. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/47 "2018-06-19T00:09:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Meanwhile, back in reality, “[Trump approval rating ties highest point of his presidency](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/392817-poll-trump-approval-rating-ties-highest-point-of-his-presidency)”. That’s after the electorate lived through 2016, and 2017, and almost half of 2018. If he keeps this up, some day he could be one of the forty-one most popular Presidents in our nation’s history. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/48 "2018-06-19T02:28:53Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Meanwhile, back in reality, “[Trump approval rating ties highest point of his presidency](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/392817-poll-trump-approval-rating-ties-highest-point-of-his-presidency)”. That’s after the electorate lived through 2016, and 2017, and almost half of 2018. So your assertion is that Trump should be considered a popular president with popular policies? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/49 "2018-06-19T14:05:10Z")
I think the point is that, in 2016, he was popular enough to get elected, and now, he’s just as popular as he was in 2016, so he could still get elected again. It’s a valid point, that we can’t get complacent about him just destroying himself. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/50 "2018-06-19T16:00:42Z")
it certainly helped that he ran against a weak over confident Clinton who did not campaign in states like Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/51 "2018-06-19T16:14:04Z")
So let’s make sure that this time, we don’t run a weak, overconfident candidate. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/52 "2018-06-19T16:33:48Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > it certainly helped that he ran against a weak over confident Clinton who did not campaign in states like Wisconsin. Do you think the general impression of HRC among Dems prior to her defeat was that she was weak and over-confident? I certainly don’t recall many posts along those lines from left-leaning Dopers prior to the election. ETA: but I’m trying to determine if that’s just my personal feelings on the matter coloring my memory of events. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/53 "2018-06-19T16:45:22Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Do you think the general impression of HRC among Dems prior to her defeat was that she was weak and over-confident? I definitely thought so, and I knew as soon as she was nominated as the candidate that she would be defeated by Trump - and I said as much (not here on this board because I wasn’t a member yet) but nobody believed me. I wasn’t exactly basking in schadenfreude after the election - I don’t get much satisfaction from being right about something that most of my friends and family are pissed off about - but I was nonplussed. Before the Democratic debates, I had really high hopes for Jim Webb. He was my guy. I felt he definitely had what it takes to win. I know a number of moderate republicans and independents who voted for Donald Trump and while I don’t claim to read their minds, I think they would rather have voted for a Marine officer and Vietnam Veteran who was Reagan’s Secretary of the Navy, than an owner of a bunch of tacky hotels and reality show host. But Webb’s awful performance in the first debate and his subsequent bowing out of the race put the kibosh on that pipe dream. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/54 "2018-06-19T16:49:31Z")
also Clinton had been bashed since 92, pretty much non stop. She was just as disliked as Bill among the GOP , maybe even more so. But it was “her turn” for many people. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/55 "2018-06-19T17:49:36Z")
Every time I see one of those memes or cartoons depicting a nuclear explosion, a ruined city, or some other dire apocalyptic scenario, with the caption “but her emails”, I want to say you could do exactly the same thing with the caption “but it was her turn.” It was the Democratic establishment’s choice to nominate a very weak candidate. If someone leaves the door to your house open and a wild animal gets in and fucks everything up, do you get more upset at the animal, or at the person who left the door open? Just to pre-empt the inevitable people who are going to bring up the popular vote (padded by NY and California) as evidence that Hillary was _not_ a “weak candidate” - and I’ve used this analogy before, and I did come up with it on my own even though someone else somewhere has probably said the same thing - the popular vote doesn’t matter to the election any more than the number of balls hit into the outfield matters to a baseball game. It’s not the number of balls, it’s _where_ they go. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/56 "2018-06-19T18:01:57Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > also Clinton had been bashed since 92, pretty much non stop. She was just as disliked as Bill among the GOP , maybe even more so. But it was “her turn” for many people. And SNL had no problem[ravaging them](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weJqe8m2m5g) back then. Imagine that! ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/57 "2018-06-19T21:50:56Z")
there have been other people who were weak but yet ran since it was their turn - Dole, Mondale and McCain are 3 examples from the past 30 years. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2018, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/58 "2018-06-19T22:49:18Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > there have been other people who were weak but yet ran since it was their turn - Dole, Mondale and McCain are 3 examples from the past 30 years. You just don’t understand. Females and emails are the red line. (Male emails, not so much of an issue) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2018, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/59 "2018-06-20T01:12:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Do you think the general impression of HRC among Dems prior to her defeat was that she was weak and over-confident? I certainly don’t recall many posts along those lines from left-leaning Dopers prior to the election. ETA: but I’m trying to determine if that’s just my personal feelings on the matter coloring my memory of events. Let’s not forget she got more votes than Trump did. It’s just unfortunate that some people’s votes count more than other people’s. So claiming Hillary Clinton was somehow the worst candidate who ever ran is pretty hard to back up with any objective evidence. Yes, she lost. But half of the people who run for President lose. ---
**Author:** ![ned12](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f1d935/32.png) [@ned12](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ned12)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2018, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232/60 "2018-06-21T19:45:18Z")
> [@Alpha\_Twit](#): > > And all I can do is hope that things might be better next time. Am I wrong for hoping? I say with facts you are wrong. What about the Prez Trump just replaced? Did you not ever hear that Obama was a Mexican gun-smuggler. Remember how much of a deadlky crime duo Obama and his corrupt AG (and former Columbia U holdup man) Eric Holder made. Remember when Obama gave new meaning to the word “nerve” and just disavowed a legally-required Congress consultation about military planes flying over Libya after 90 days. Whether Trump is any good or not at least he replaced an illegal and (at times) one-man dictatorship. He did that much good from the beginning. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-deluded-for-thinking-trump-will-not-even-seek-re-election/816232.md?page=4)