# Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356 "2020-10-06T17:27:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 43
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/841 "2020-12-04T14:47:59Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > But we have a huge amount of homes and condos that are folks second homes. They get rented out and are only suppose to have one family, or I guess ‘pod’ in them at a time. With bars mostly closed, I think the new gathering places will be these short term rentals. Had one recently that got busted. Had 5 cars in the driveway from all over the country. Oh definitely. Traveling for a shared vacation is a typical normal passtime for a lot of people. Meet up somewhere for some activity or another. Like going to Las Vegas for a Dopefest. People doing that in a pandemic is… unwise. “But Skiing!” ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/842 "2020-12-04T15:05:33Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > I thought it was said a few posts ago that trends were down. At least in cases. According to the CDC page, wednesday, Dec 2, we had an all time high of 196,227 cases. The 7 day trend that was dropping is going back up. Daily Deaths hit 2,762. I think the NBC national news said it hit 2,804. We’re approaching the number of deaths from 9/11 daily in this country. That rate has a death every 30 seconds. Worldometers has the daily case count at an all time high of 218,576. Daily Deaths is 2,918, and Total Deaths is 282,829. And this is just a week out from Thanksgiving. And again, I jumped through your hoops. Would you care to try a few yourself? Here’s my previous post. > [@Irishman](#): > > Now maybe you can project what you think will happen in the next 4 weeks between now and Christmas, and between now and the end of January. I’ve given my guess for the first - we will top 300,000 deaths by Christmas. The latter, 390,000 deaths by Jan 31. Note comparison against > [COVID-19 (healthdata.org)](https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend) > My numbers are conservative. They have 300,000 deaths by Dec. 16, and 413,000 by Jan. 31. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/843 "2020-12-04T16:12:00Z")
Yeah, I guess it does look like it’s getting worse. I think it’s becoming more and more clear – or at least should be, to those for whom it hasn’t been obvious all along – that what we are doing is not working. For the life of me I can’t figure out why some places are doubling down on it. How much is California contributing to that caseload, with their new curfews and such? How about Illinois and New York, with all their closures? It’s just…not…working. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/844 "2020-12-04T16:24:22Z")
What’s making it not working is the widespread noncompliance. Now you may consider that an indelible feature of the landscape, as inevitable / inexorable as gravity. The rest of us don’t. The various state and local governments may be trying to contain the pandemic. But the public isn’t trying. Or at least a very large fraction of them are not. In fact many are doing their damndest to spread it as fast and as far as they can. Some with genuine malice aforethought, many more out of simple selfish willful ignorance. Perhaps once they’ve all had somebody in their family or immediate circle of friends die they’ll begin to believe this is real. Or perhaps not. As Pogo almost said: > We have met the enemy. And it’s not a virus. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/845 "2020-12-04T16:33:06Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Some with genuine malice aforethought Gosh, do you really believe this? Or at least, do you believe that there are enough people doing that to have a significant effect? If so, wow. Oh, and did you also believe there were HIV-positive people fucking anything that moved, without a condom? ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/846 "2020-12-04T16:38:34Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > Oh, and did you also believe there were HIV-positive people fucking anything that moved, without a condom? Yes… > **[Criminal transmission of HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminal_transmission_of_HIV)** > > Criminal transmission of HIV is the intentional or reckless infection of a person with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This is often conflated, in laws and in discussion, with criminal exposure to HIV, which does not require the transmission of the virus and often, as in the cases of spitting and biting, does not include a realistic means of transmission. Some countries or jurisdictions, including some areas of the U.S., have enacted laws expressly to criminalize HIV transmission or e And here’s a short list of people convicted of it… > **[List of HIV-positive people | Criminal transmission of HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HIV-positive_people#Criminal_transmission_of_HIV)** > > 1."Artists With Aids". Archived from the original on May 16, 2014. Retrieved October 6, 2017. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/847 "2020-12-04T17:15:09Z")
I feel like you flipped from “why are we doing this, the pandemic isn’t that bad and getting better” to “why aren’t we doing this, it’s clearly not helping” without missing a beat. My read is that compliance to restrictions does lead to a lower case load, and loosening up worsens it: it happened in Texas in April/May, and again in August/September: cases went up, we tightened down, cases went down, we loosened up, and they shot right back up. What’s different this time is that it’s everywhere, so even when local places tighten down, it’s still streaming into the community. And people are less and less compliant each time we tighten down. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/848 "2020-12-04T17:24:10Z")
My read is that there is very significant seasonality in play, and my point of view is that interventions don’t do a whole lot. I did think that the data was showing the present surge already leveling off – and god, was I ever hoping it was – but I didn’t put that down to interventions, because no, I don’t think those interventions are strong enough to stop the virus. So, it’s not that I pivoted from one of those positions to another without missing a beat. It’s that I hold both those views at the same time. Or at least, I’m hopeful about the ‘getting better’ part. But not hopeful there’s much we can do about it if it’s not. ---
**Author:** ![kambuckta](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/53a042/32.png) [@kambuckta](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kambuckta)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/849 "2020-12-04T21:36:20Z")
Yet other places like New Zealand, Australia, damn, even VIETNAM who instituted very strict shutdowns and demanded people adhere to the mitigation efforts HAVE managed to control the spread of Covid19. Why on earth is the US seemingly unable to get the message? ---
**Author:** ![Tristan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tristan/32/18058_2.png) [@Tristan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tristan)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/850 "2020-12-04T21:52:41Z")
Our …_unique_ political situation has led us to where we are now. That, coupled with that oh-so-American virtue of “You can’t tell me what to do!” I have this suspicion that long after the world has gotten rid of it for the most part, it will still be rampant in the US. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/851 "2020-12-04T23:26:06Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > My read is that there is very significant seasonality in play, Considering it’s only existed for three (or, arguably, four) seasons, it’s not possible to say it’s significantly seasonal. I’m not saying that’s not the case, just that with the lack of seasonal data, you’re jumping to conclusions. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/852 "2020-12-04T23:29:54Z")
But not walking out on a thin limb, I am sure you will agree. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/853 "2020-12-04T23:42:28Z")
I won’t agree to anything more than to be open to the possibility that it could be seasonal. Unless the experts say different, you’re extrapolating from far too little data. [![](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png) ](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png) ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/854 "2020-12-04T23:44:51Z")
Or maybe, just maybe, it falls into a category for which there is far more than enough data. I guess we’ll find out soon. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/855 "2020-12-04T23:52:47Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > Or maybe, just maybe, it falls into a category for which there is far more than enough data. That’s 100% factually incorrect. Without even a full year of data, you literally don’t have enough data to declare something to be seasonal. It might seem like something that should be seasonal. It might be behaving like other seasonal illnesses. But when we haven’t had a chance to see if the pattern will repeat, we have the opposite of ‘far more than enough data’. Let’s do this differently. You’re saying we far more than enough data to determine it’s seasonal. Can you show us that data? For example, here’s a graph of influenza deaths over the past 7 years. You can see the pattern. [![](https://sascommunities.github.io/graphics-programming/robert/us_flu_deaths.png) ](https://sascommunities.github.io/graphics-programming/robert/us_flu_deaths.png) Do you have a similar graph for Covid deaths? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/856 "2020-12-04T23:59:03Z")
What I’m saying is that, as you have shown, there is a category of illnesses that are starkly seasonal. If we find that this one is, let’s just say that it should not come as any surprise. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/857 "2020-12-05T00:07:12Z")
A few posts back you said it was seasonal and that we had more than enough data showing that. However, instead of providing this wealth of data, you backed off and simply acknowledged the existence of a category of illnesses that are seasonal. We’re not talking about a ‘category of illnesses’. You made the claim that covid is seasonal. You need to back up that claim. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/858 "2020-12-05T00:11:13Z")
I said that maybe it falls into a category of things for which we have far more than enough data. Like decades worth. Many decades. All the decades. You know, like influenza. Like other coronaviruses. That are seasonal. But I’ll tell you one thing! We may not have enough data on this guy yet to prove anything (to the level of your liking), even if we think we have good reason to believe that it will act like other members of its class, but we do already have signs of the way it’s pointing. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/859 "2020-12-05T00:14:30Z")
> [@kambuckta](#): > > Yet other places like New Zealand, Australia, damn, even VIETNAM who instituted very strict shutdowns and demanded people adhere to the mitigation efforts HAVE managed to control the spread of Covid19. Look, I think mitigation efforts have a noticeable effect but there’s obviously some other factors that aren’t clear yet that also have great effect. Japan was rather scolded early on because they made little effort at mitigation. Everyone forgets about that now that they have good numbers. Lots of different mitigation timetables in that region but mostly they’re doing better. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/860 "2020-12-05T00:14:42Z")
But it spiked in July, in TX FL and AZ. Spiked badly, about 5 weeks after restrictions were loosened. Then, restrictions were tightened, and it declined. Then we loosened the, at the start ofbthis thread. Five weeks later . . . [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356.md?page=42) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356.md?page=44)