# Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356 "2020-10-06T17:27:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 65
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2021, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1283 "2021-01-24T10:21:39Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > We know what works. Masks, social distancing, testing, contact tracing, and we know that America isn’t doing enough of any of it. Then why isn’t LA County doing markedly better than Arizona is? What does ‘works’ mean? ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2021, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1284 "2021-01-24T10:33:27Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > Then why isn’t LA County doing markedly better than Arizona is? …because LA County have fucked things up? Since when have I defended their handling of the pandemic? > [@SayTwo](#): > > What does ‘works’ mean? I’ll make it easy for you: I’ll link to the Spinoff Explainers. Masks. [https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/08/Covid-19-Mask-Advice-August-01v2.gif](https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/08/Covid-19-Mask-Advice-August-01v2.gif) The underlying science: [https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/15-08-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-why-were-adding-masks-to-our-covid-19-toolkit/](https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/15-08-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-why-were-adding-masks-to-our-covid-19-toolkit/) Social distancing and the bubble. [https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/03/Covid-19-Breaking-bubbles-02.gif](https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/03/Covid-19-Breaking-bubbles-02.gif) The underlying science: [https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-youre-waking-up-in-lockdown-nz-heres-how-it-works/](https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-youre-waking-up-in-lockdown-nz-heres-how-it-works/) Testing. [https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/04/Covid-19-Symptoms-v6.jpg](https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/04/Covid-19-Symptoms-v6.jpg) The underlying science: [https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/18-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-how-testing-for-covid-19-works/](https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/18-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-how-testing-for-covid-19-works/) Contact Tracing: [https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/04/Covid-19-Contact-tracing-05.gif](https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/04/Covid-19-Contact-tracing-05.gif) [https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/04/Covid-19-Contact-tracing-Infectious-timeline-02.gif](https://assets.thespinoff.co.nz/1/2020/04/Covid-19-Contact-tracing-Infectious-timeline-02.gif) The underlying science: [https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/18-04-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-why-contact-tracing-is-so-crucial-to-moving-out-of-lockdown/](https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/18-04-2020/siouxsie-wiles-toby-morris-why-contact-tracing-is-so-crucial-to-moving-out-of-lockdown/) Credit to the Spinoff, shown here under _Creative Commons CC-BY-SA-4.0 licence_, credit to Toby Morris in collaboration with Siouxsie Wiles for their amazing work. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2021, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1285 "2021-01-24T12:21:53Z")
We’ve discussed concern for the arts in this thread. Here is New York Governor Cuomo beginning to come around to a sympathetic point of view: > **[Cuomo Outlines Plans to ‘Bring Arts and Culture Back to Life’ (Published 2021)](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/arts/cuomo-art-culture-plan.html)** > > Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said that New York urgently needs to bring the arts back — not only to help jobless artists, but to make sure that New York City survives. > Mr. Cuomo said that New York could not wait for enough people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity before taking steps to revive its performing arts scene. > > “We’re looking at months of shutdowns,” he said. “We need to begin to act now. We can’t float along letting pain, hardship and inequality grow around us.” ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2021, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1286 "2021-01-26T16:09:03Z")
Per CDC, as of Jan 24, ```auto U.S. Texas California Florida Arizona New York City Total Cases = 25,018,520 2,240,526 3,109,151 1,619,288 722,574 577,588 Rate per 100,000 = 7,632.8 7,727 7,868.8 7,539.4 9,927.2 6,877.1 Daily New Cases = 142,259 11,565 24,111 9,355 7,217 5,800 7day Mov Average = 168,378 18,080 23,810 10,960 6,956 5,670 Trend = down down slowly down steep down level down slightly Total Deaths = 417,936 34,322 36,790 25,293 12,238 26,648 Rate per 100,000 = 126 118 93 118 168 317 Daily Deaths* = 1,926 208 429 129 68 90 7day Mov Average = 3,070 326 485 165 139 77 Trend = flat slightly up slight up mostly level levelish flat ``` '\* Data for Deaths is highly cyclical for the week, with Wed being peak numbers and Sun being lowest. The 91-divoc page using John Hopkins numbers shows total US deaths for Jan 25 at 421,129. Using an avg daily death rate of 3,100 and projecting just 6 days until Feb, we should hit 439,000 deaths. That’s 18,600 dead projected in 6 days. At 3000 deaths/day during February, we will hit 526,000 dead by Mar 1. That’s 87,000 in February. What is my point? We are not at a good place, and we have a long way to go before this is over. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2021, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1287 "2021-01-26T16:19:02Z")
If cases are trending down, deaths will as well in the next week or so. Assuming 3k deaths/day throughout February isn’t valid. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2021, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1288 "2021-01-26T19:41:19Z")
I would be pretty cautious on that, the UK variant has been detected in the US, like any exponential growth curve the numbers are small - but they won’t be soon. The great danger is that if the figures offer that prospect of a signficant decline complacency will set in and that’s when the 30-40% more transmissible variant will just skyrocket - there is a real risk of another wave of infection. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1289 "2021-01-27T01:45:35Z")
> [@casdave](#): > > The great danger is that if the figures offer that prospect of a signficant decline complacency will set in and that’s when the 30-40% more transmissible variant will just skyrocket - there is a real risk of another wave of infection. Well, that’s only if you believe complacency has anything at all to do with this, and I think there is absolutely zero evidence to support that claim. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1290 "2021-01-27T13:03:14Z")
Utter rubbish, complete and utter twaddle and you know it. I am going to refrain from a further response to you on this comment. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1291 "2021-01-27T15:38:39Z")
What I know is that the dance doesn’t make it rain, no matter how much one thinks it does. So I don’t worry too much about our displeasing the gods. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1292 "2021-01-27T16:00:25Z")
Does the lack of a flu season not at least suggest to you that our dance does have an effect on infectious respiratory diseases? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1293 "2021-01-27T16:07:01Z")
I’m not sure what to make of that. What do you think is happening there? By that I mean, if that’s truly the case then what accounts for how differently the two viruses operate? ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1294 "2021-01-27T16:08:04Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > I’m not sure what to make of that Ok, well you think it over. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1295 "2021-01-27T16:09:11Z")
What makes you think I haven’t already? I mean, do you really think I’m a person who wouldn’t have? ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1296 "2021-01-27T16:12:44Z")
Well, why don’t you give us the results of your ruminations rather than this Socratic bullshit? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1297 "2021-01-27T16:18:14Z")
I already gave you the results. I said I don’t know what to make of it. Why ask a question if you won’t accept the answer? Perhaps if you’ll go ahead and tell me what you make of it, it will influence my thinking. Please do. I’d like to hear it. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1298 "2021-01-27T16:23:03Z")
What I make of it is that since a wide variety of infectious diseases are down this year, it’s a fair guess that covid is also down from what it would be without mitigation efforts. Sorry, thought that was obvious. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1299 "2021-01-27T16:27:06Z")
Well, is the flu season down or is it gone? You said ‘lack of’, so I figured it was more the latter. It’s certainly not obvious to me that these things are linear, at any rate. Most things like it aren’t. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1300 "2021-01-27T16:30:43Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > Well, is the flu season down or is it gone? You said ‘lack of’, so I figured it was more the latter. It’s basically gone. The numbers so low they are hard to graph against previous years. > **[World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int)** > > The United Nations agency working to promote health, keep the world safe and serve the vulnerable. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1301 "2021-01-27T16:38:15Z")
Well, I guess that is saving lives. I wonder if it will come back as soon as we let our guard down. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2021, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1302 "2021-01-27T16:57:06Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > If cases are trending down, deaths will as well in the next week or so. Assuming 3k deaths/day throughout February isn’t valid. 1. The death trends are more than one week lag - closer to 3 weeks. Still, that would be a valid point for February. 2. 3,000 is below 3,100 for the next few days, so there is some buffer. 3. The UK variant is spreading in the US, it has a higher transmissibility and now they are saying it may also be deadlier. Numbers will go up again even if measures are kept the same. 4. There is a new variant from Brazil that has made its way to the US. It is also more transmissible, though right now is limited to one patient who recently traveled from Brazil. Still, other variants may be leaking into the US, like the African variant that researchers are worried our current vaccines might not stop. 5. Compliance seems to be slipping in my experience. Between the vaccine becoming available and covid fatigue, fewer people are wearing masks at my grocery store. It’s not a huge difference yet, but it is noticeable. We’ve also relaxed some measures like daily screenings for employees. Arguable if those were beneficial, but no justification given for the change. Those show a pattern that, to me, reflects society as a whole. > [@SayTwo](#): > > Well, that’s only if you believe complacency has anything at all to do with this, and I think there is absolutely zero evidence to support that claim. Well, I think you are completely wrong. I think the evidence is screaming loud that compliance and restrictions play a strong role in the spread. > [@SayTwo](#): > > So I don’t worry too much about our displeasing the gods. It’s not the gods I’m worried about, it’s human behavior that has me upset. > [@SayTwo](#): > > I’m not sure what to make of that. What do you think is happening there? By that I mean, if that’s truly the case then what accounts for how differently the two viruses operate? I assume you are trying to point out that worldwide the flu is way down, almost eliminated, but covid is still rampant. Literally the first google hit for “covid infectiousness vs flu” [says](https://www.henryford.com/blog/2020/11/why-is-covid-more-contagious-than-flu) > [@](#): > > COVID-19 seems to spread more easily and leads to a more serious illness than the flu. > > ## Small COVID-19 particles may linger in the air longer than the flu. > > ## The incubation period for COVID-19 is longer than the flu. > > ## Flu antibodies may last longer than COVID-19 antibodies. The [CDC says](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm) > [@](#): > > COVID-19 seems to spread more easily than flu and causes more serious illnesses in some people. It can also take longer before people show symptoms and people can be contagious for longer. > > While COVID-19 and flu viruses are thought to spread in similar ways, COVID-19 is more contagious among certain populations and age groups than flu. Also, COVID-19 has been observed to have more superspreading events than flu. This means the virus that causes COVID-19 can quickly and easily spread to a lot of people and result in continuous spreading among people as time progresses. I could quote more from the article, but that should be sufficient. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356.md?page=64) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356.md?page=66)