# Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356>\
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone\
**Tags:** covid-quarantine\
**Created:** [October 6, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356 "2020-10-06T17:27:43Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 67

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**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1323 "2021-01-28T20:11:27Z")

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> [@BippityBoppityBoo](#):
>
> How many are grandparents of school-age kids? I have a 13 year old living with me and every day she goes to middle school, mixes with 1500 other kids and adult staff and then gets into my car in close quarters to share the viruses she met that day. Just before she spends the evening in my house before getting in the car the next day to return to school to gather more contagion. I’m 71, with several other risk factors. Any more questions?

I mentioned upthread that I fully support every family’s right to choose for themselves whether to keep their children home from school during the pandemic. Your situation sounds like one where it seems more than reasonable. No, I have no questions for you.

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**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1324 "2021-01-28T20:14:38Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> I do not, no, on those particular situations, **as I don’t know enough about the context.**

**…and this is entirely the point.**

You can’t make a blanket argument against school closures because each closure is different, and **specific context is required.** Schools are open here. They are closed in the UK. We all agree that educational outcomes will probably be better if students were back in school. But whether or not those schools are safe to open are dependent on **specific context that a school or a district find themselves in.**

> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> But even if I did, I haven’t found you to be very welcoming of other people’s opinions.

The opinions that you hold and express here are dangerous. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that I am unwelcoming of your opinion.

> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> You usually (if you don’t like them, at least) **ask for cites to back them up** or otherwise diminish the person’s right to have them.

That’s kinda how it works around here. Welcome to the Straight Dope.

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**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1325 "2021-01-28T20:18:05Z")

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> [@Banquet\_Bear](#):
>
> But whether or not those schools are safe to open are dependent on **specific context that a school or a district find themselves in.**

Is it the context that closes and opens the schools, or is it the leaders? It’s the leaders. Do the leaders always correctly, or appropriately, interpret the context? I don’t think they always do. Do you?

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**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1326 "2021-01-28T20:22:27Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> Is it the context that closes and opens the schools, or is it the leaders? It’s the leaders. Do the leaders always correctly, or appropriately, interpret the context? I don’t think they always do. Do you?

…the decisions made by leadership are part of the context. Its all part of the context.

Was Boris Johnson right to close the schools in the UK a few weeks ago? Did he correctly and appropriately interpret the context? I think he did on this occasion even though he has been wrong on many other things. What do you think?

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**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1327 "2021-01-28T20:29:39Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> mentioned upthread that I fully support every family’s right to choose for themselves whether to keep their children home from school during the pandemic.

Notice I said grandparents and that the child lives with me, not that I had any legal decision making power re: her education. Her mother shares my home. Her other parent (biological father under a custody sharing family court plan demands that the child goes to school in person. Barring an expensive and likely futile legal battle or turning them out on the street, I’m at risk just as I described.

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**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1328 "2021-01-28T20:34:09Z")

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> [@Banquet\_Bear](#):
>
> Was Boris Johnson right to close the schools in the UK a few weeks ago? Did he correctly and appropriately interpret the context? I think he did on this occasion even though he has been wrong on many other things. What do you think?

I already told you that I do not have an informed opinion on that. I still don’t.

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**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1329 "2021-01-28T20:40:11Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> I already told you that I do not have an informed opinion on that. I still don’t.

…so do you want to have a discussion here or not? What exactly is the goal? You want to talk about school closures but don’t want to look deeply into **specific** school closures. You then pivoted to leadership but you don’t want to talk about a **specific** example of leadership.

Its not as if the UK isn’t a good example to examine for its size, its population, and for its overall handling of the pandemic. And it isn’t as if you haven’t cited Sweden several times in this thread as an example of how you think they handled the pandemic well in the early months. Why was it easy for you to find out **that** information, but its too hard to investigate them now?

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**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1330 "2021-01-28T20:50:25Z")

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As we have discussed here on the board, it is common practice for schools to be closed short-term during viral outbreaks. It is long-term school closures, particularly in places without rampant or fast-growing spread, that are – in my opinion, which I hope you’ll allow me to have! – more harmful than helpful.

I assume you are asking about such short-term closures, in the cases of the UK and Sweden.

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**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1331 "2021-01-28T20:59:21Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> . **It is long-term school closures,** particularly in places without rampant or fast-growing spread, that are – in my opinion, which I hope you’ll allow me to have! – more harmful than helpful.

…which specific closures are you talking about?

> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> I assume you are asking about such short-term closures, in the cases of the UK and Sweden.

I’m addressing the comments you have made in this thread. You’ve made zero distinction between short and long term closures up till now. If you want to specifically talk about long term closures, then be specific about where exactly you are talking about.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1332 "2021-01-28T21:37:31Z")

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I’m talking about all of them. There are no long-term school closures that appear to be worth the devastation they are causing.

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**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1333 "2021-01-28T21:49:29Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> I’m talking about all of them.

…name **one**.

> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> There are no long-term school closures that appear to be worth the devastation they are causing.

Then you shouldn’t have any problem telling me which one in particular you find problematic. You cited a doctor talking about school closures in the UK before. Was that one of the long term closures you were talking about?

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**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1334 "2021-01-28T21:52:28Z")

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I don’t recall if it was. Again: I am against all long-term school closures during this pandemic. I don’t think they are worth the devastation they cause.

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**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1335 "2021-01-28T22:38:01Z")

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Cites please.

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**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1336 "2021-01-28T22:41:01Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> How many a day, on average, are parents of school-age kids?

284,372 on average.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1337 "2021-01-28T22:44:42Z")

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> [@DMC](#):
>
> 284,372 on average.

That can’t be the right daily average of American parents dying of COVID-19.

~Max

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1338 "2021-01-28T22:46:39Z")

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Apologies, I can see the error in my post. Fixing it now:

I **think** 284,372 on average, but I’ve also heard is was eleventy million, so I’m confused.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1339 "2021-01-28T22:48:10Z")

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Per day??? You’ve got to be off by an order of magnitude.

**Banquet\_Bear** wrote that the seven day rolling average of American COVID deaths is “over 3,000” per day. 284,372 \> 3,000, and not all deaths are parents of school-age children.

~Max

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**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\
**Post date:** [January 28, 2021, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1340 "2021-01-28T22:49:41Z")

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> [@Max\_S](#):
>
> **Banquet\_Bear** wrote that the seven day rolling average of American COVID deaths is “over 3,000” per day. 284,372 \> 3,000

Sure, but in my informed opinion, Banquet Bear was leaving out whether this included people wearing orange masks, which I think is important, and might be the reason we come up with different numbers.

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**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2021, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1342 "2021-02-02T15:31:10Z")

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> [@SayTwo](#):
>
> Except in the places where they don’t, right? Or, do those places not get to scream as loud? Or were the restrictions in Southern California just kinda ignored by most if not all?

I don’t think we have the data to answer the question. I mean, it’s not like we have rapid testing and detailed contact tracing showing exposure connections, times, and environments. Nor do we have genetic sequencing on vast numbers of those tests to identify which exposures caused which transfers.

I just heard on TV that the NFL actually did study this shit, and published the study through the CDC. Oh look, here it is.

[Implementation and Evolution of Mitigation Measures, Testing, and Contact Tracing in the National Football League, August 9–November 21, 2020 | MMWR (cdc.gov)](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7004e2.htm)

Some excerpts:

> [@](#):
>
> **What is added by this report?**
> 
> The National Football League observed SARS-CoV-2 transmission after \<15 minutes of cumulative interaction, leading to a revised definition of a high-risk contact that evaluated mask use and ventilation in addition to duration and proximity of interaction. Intensive mitigation protocols effectively reduced close interactions.
> 
> **What are the implications for public health practice?**
> 
> Assessment of the context of each interaction, including mask use, indoor versus outdoor setting, and ventilation, in addition to duration and proximity, can improve identification of high-risk contacts during contact tracing. Postexposure quarantine based on redefined high-risk criteria, combined with testing and environment-specific intensive protocols, can protect communities before and after case identification.
> 
> The National Football League (NFL) and the NFL Players Association (NFLPA) began the 2020 football season in July, implementing extensive mitigation and surveillance measures in facilities and during travel and gameplay. Mitigation protocols\* were evaluated and modified based on data from routine reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19); proximity tracking devices; and detailed interviews. Midseason, transmission was observed in persons who had cumulative interactions of \<15 minutes’ duration, leading to a revised definition of high-risk contacts that required consideration of mask use, setting and room ventilation in addition to proximity and duration of interaction. The NFL also developed an intensive protocol that imposed stricter infection prevention precautions when a case was identified at an NFL club. The intensive protocol effectively prevented the occurrence of high-risk interactions, with no high-risk contacts identified for 71% of traced cases at clubs under the intensive protocol. The incorporation of the nature and location of the interaction, including mask use, indoor versus outdoor setting, and ventilation, in addition to proximity and duration, likely improved identification of exposed persons at higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Quarantine of these persons, along with testing and intensive protocols, can reduce spread of infection.
> 
> [snip]  
> [Conclusion]  
> COVID-19 mitigation measures must be continually optimized based on available data. In the NFL, COVID-19 transmission was identified in persons with \<15 minutes of consecutive or cumulative interaction and was reduced through implementation of an intensive protocol focused on environmental change, increased personal protection, avoidance of high-risk interactions such as vehicle sharing, eating in the same room or common areas, and expansion of the components of contact tracing to incorporate high-risk contact designations. Although the protocols implemented by the NFL were resource-intensive, strategies such as accounting for specific characteristics of the close contact, in addition to time and duration, and creation of an intensive protocol are applicable to other settings, including essential workplaces, long-term care facilities, and schools.

So as not to blanket quote the whole article and bore the uninterested with the numbers and details, I’ll give a summary.

The NFL instituted a detailed study to understand transmission and how to limit it. They gave members tracking devices to be worn at all times and instituted daily rapid covid testing, and performed genomic sequencing on the viruses detected. They measured people’s interactions, and after exposures they quarantined the exposed and performed detailed contact tracing, not just through the device data but through personal interviews. They also instituted strong cleaning protocols for facilities.

They then evaluated the data for a number of factors. I’ll just quote here.

> [@](#):
>
> A third league-wide change was expansion of contact tracing and transmission risk assessment focusing on high-risk contact identification, which comprised four main components. These were, in addition to consideration of duration of exposure and specific distance between persons, assessment of face mask use (e.g., medical mask versus cloth face covering, proper mask use for both infected person and contact, and any mask removal to eat or drink) and setting and ventilation (e.g., outdoor, indoor large volume, indoor small volume, and during transportation).
> 
> [snip]
> 
> Real-time evaluation of surveillance data and response to suspected COVID-19 transmission events within NFL clubs led to important changes in NFL-NFLPA COVID-19 protocols. Compulsory 7-day intensive protocol implementation for clubs with any exposure to COVID-19, mandatory 5-day quarantine of high-risk contacts, and daily RT-PCR testing effectively reduced exposure and facilitated earlier case identification. Daily testing allowed early, albeit not immediate, identification of infection ( _5_ ), necessitating quarantine after exposure; high frequency testing also facilitated real-time program evaluation.

_ **This** _ is the kind of study the government should have been pushing back in March, the kind of activity that would have given the guidelines for shut downs and closures and reopenings and curfews some sort of a data-based merit that you are going on about. But our government didn’t do any of it. They whined about government interference and the need to keep the economy going and that the pandemic would just go away. They didn’t do the mass surveillance testing that was recommended, nor even attempt contact tracing because the delays between exposure and testing and test results were so long. And so we fell back on some general principles that had some basis of merit for infectious disease control, but have been shown to not be limiting for covid.

I can’t tell you what occurred in California, or the impacts of population density, and what kind of behaviors and interactions were actually performed despite any mandates. I don’t have data. I don’t have data on restriction dates and the corresponding data on cases and death statistics to correlate. Plus, that kind of assessment is (a) a research-grant level of study, and (b) outside my field of expertise.

What I can say is that America has botched this from the beginning, largely because of one party’s obstruction of meaningful control measures and implementation of the kind of data collection that would have been beneficial to understand how to improve controls. Plus, resistance to masking.

You keep going on and on about California’s controls not working, but you are not providing any suggestions on how to improve control of disease spread and limiting of cases and deaths. You just keep advocating opening things up, without giving any suggestion to how to protect American lives and health. Do you have anything to offer, other than we have vaccines rolling out? Are we just to let everyone die until the vaccine distribution can finally get spread far enough to have an effect?

What are your recommendations? Be specific. I’ve given mine. What are yours?

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**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2021, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1343 "2021-02-02T16:00:03Z")

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> [@Irishman](#):
>
> You keep going on and on about California’s controls not working, but you are not providing any suggestions on how to improve control of disease spread and limiting of cases and deaths. You just keep advocating opening things up, without giving any suggestion to how to protect American lives and health

Hasn’t he made it quite clear that he doesn’t believe in mitigation at all?

But also, go sportsball!

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