# Am I missing something here? (re: reopening of bars, etc... now) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [October 6, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356 "2020-10-06T17:27:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 68
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2021, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1344 "2021-02-02T20:45:07Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > You keep going on and on about California’s controls not working, but you are not providing any suggestions on how to improve control of disease spread and limiting of cases and deaths. You just keep advocating opening things up, without giving any suggestion to how to protect American lives and health. Do you have anything to offer, other than we have vaccines rolling out? Are we just to let everyone die until the vaccine distribution can finally get spread far enough to have an effect? Note that his comparisons have not been for all of California vs. Arizona, but only LA County, which is I think about #3 in the list ordered by deaths per 10K. My county, under the same restrictions, has less than half the death rate of LA. I’ve seen various explanations for this, including that many in LA county live in crowded conditions conducive to the spread, but nothing definitive. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2021, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1345 "2021-02-06T23:32:50Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > The 91-divoc page using John Hopkins numbers shows total US deaths for Jan 25 at 421,129. Using an avg daily death rate of 3,100 and projecting just 6 days until Feb, we should hit 439,000 deaths. That’s 18,600 dead projected in 6 days. Just for grins, here’s my followup. CDC shows Jan 31 at 439,955 total deaths. Still too early to look at February. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2021, 8:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1346 "2021-02-13T08:16:12Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > My position that it could be seasonal but we don’t know? It’s not that there’s something useful about my position, but my position (if it can even be called that) was more meant to refute yours, which is actively harmful (“My read is that there is very significant seasonality in play, and my point of view is that interventions don’t do a whole lot”) > [@Joey\_P](#): > > You’re right, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, however, you need enormous amounts of [annual] data and experts with education and training to know how the blowing wind will effect the climate. You seem to be coming from a position of ‘it’s cold, right now, where I’m standing, therefore global warming is a load of crap made up by someone for some reason’. There are going to be similarities between confusing or conflating weather and climate and drawing hasty generalizations about covid and assuming or declaring that they’re patterns. > > And, for the third time, I never, not once, said it wasn’t seasonal. My official, stated position is that it’s impossible to know if something is seasonal when it hasn’t even existed for a single year. > If, as you claim, it’s seasonal, there should be easily accessible data showing how it repeats with a similar pattern every year. Something along the lines of the flu graph I provided as an example. I’m more than open to the possibility that it’s seasonal, but you need to provide evidence as such. Since I AM trying to ‘science on this message board’, unless you can back something up, it’s a hypothesis, not a conclusion. In other words, that’s just like, your opinion, man. @Joey_P, I thought I would check back in with you to see how you interpret the data in the months since we discussed this last. Do you think the data are doing more, or less, to support the hypothesis that there is seasonality to the spread of the virus? ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1347 "2021-03-02T15:07:31Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > The 91-divoc page using John Hopkins numbers shows total US deaths for Jan 25 at 421,129. Using an avg daily death rate of 3,100 and projecting just 6 days until Feb, we should hit 439,000 deaths. That’s 18,600 dead projected in 6 days. > > At 3000 deaths/day during February, we will hit 526,000 dead by Mar 1. That’s 87,000 in February. Prediction check: Worldometers has the US at 527,386 total deaths as of Mar 1, 2021. 91-divoc shows 514,657 total deaths. CDC is a day or two behind on numbers. Basically, my guess was pretty close. And while the numbers were dropping in late February, they have plateaued or are now rising again. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1348 "2021-03-02T15:48:46Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > I thought I would check back in with you to see how you interpret the data in the months since we discussed this last. Do you think the data are doing more, or less, to support the hypothesis that there is seasonality to the spread of the virus? Sorry, still not interested in engaging with you. I’m sure you’re setting up some type of gotcha and I have zero interest in playing along. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1349 "2021-03-02T15:58:25Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > I have zero interest in playing along. Very good choice. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1350 "2021-03-02T18:25:14Z")
What is it you do have interest in? You went a long way out of your way to loudly make the case that we have no evidence yet to believe there is any seasonality to this virus (despite that we know there is for many other viruses like it). What is really your angle here? Seeking truth would not seem to be an apparent one, if you have no interest in taking in new data and checking your claims against them. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1351 "2021-03-02T18:29:03Z")
Nope. Still not going to play. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1352 "2021-03-02T18:30:25Z")
Wrong thread. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1353 "2021-03-02T18:32:34Z")
@Saytwo You are a fine one for trying to put the onus of checking new data onto others as a form of duty when so far you have made claim after claim based on data that goes back to July last year and trying to dress it up as cutting edge meaningful information. You have been rebutted so many times you have lost all credibility in any position that you might take - so in short, no-one wants to read your rubbish, no-one wants to engage with you even when you appear at first to be making relevent inquiry - and this is because everyone who has debated or discussed anythign Covid related understands that you will try to hook other Dopers in to position that you have already manufactured with your out of date information - so in the end its a case of Na na na na na, fingers in ears, not listening or reading, I can’t hear you Saytwo ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1354 "2021-03-02T18:36:00Z")
Well, I’m going to continue believing there is seasonality to this thing. I don’t think that’s a thin limb to walk out on. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2021, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1355 "2021-03-02T19:05:39Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > What is it you do have interest in? You went a long way out of your way to loudly make the case that we have no evidence yet to believe there is any seasonality to this virus (despite that we know there is for many other viruses like it). What is really your angle here? Seeking truth would not seem to be an apparent one, if you have no interest in taking in new data and checking your claims against them. **Moderator Instructions** At this point, you are pointlessly badgering other posters, a classic “sealioning” move. If you want to demonstrate seasonality, it’s up to you to do so, not force others to. And the accusation that someone is not seeking truth because they refuse to engage you is insulting. Given this, and continual complaints about your behavior, I’m hereby banning you from this forum. Do not make any further posts in this thread, or in this forum, or you will receive a warning. Colibri Quarantine Zone Moderator ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2021, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1357 "2021-03-03T12:40:15Z")
Well good news, I was wrong. Looking at the CDC data, it shows only 70,924 deaths for February, not the 87,000 I predicted. So congrats everybody, I guess it’s time to throw away masks and open everything up. 😡 ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2021, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1358 "2021-03-03T13:32:21Z")
Woohoo! ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2021, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1359 "2021-03-03T18:33:02Z")
I’m so ticked off that our illustrious governor, Abbott, has decided that it’s time to open up fully, no more mask order, all businesses can go to 100% capacity. Starting next Wednesday. Just because numbers have trended down a bit. Except they have plateaued - the 7 day average is floating around 200 dead a day in Texas from covid. Dropping the mask mandate is going to empower all the insufferable nonmaskers to refuse even harder. And opening everything puts responsible business owners that want to still set limits at a disadvantage to those ready to fully open. Shortsighted optics of business revenues overriding the long term community health effect. Stupid government clinging to the idea that the free market will save us rather than providing economic support for everyone negatively impacted. I can only begin to express my frustration with the Republicans in Congress fighting Biden’s relief plan. Hey dunbasses, we tried it your way and what did that get us? Food shortages, huge debt for people to survive, crumbling businesses, homeowners facing eviction, or rent collectors stuck with no way to pay their mortgages. Let’s try something different this time. Trump is out, Biden got elected. Shut up, stop obstructing, get on board helping Americans get through this! Americans, pay attention to who is actually trying to help you, and who wants you to fend for yourself. Who wants to save lives while ending the pandemic, and who wants to “let the strong survive”. Because the flipside of that is letting the “weak” all die off. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2021, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1360 "2021-03-06T22:05:47Z")
CDC just found that the virus increases when restaurants reopen. Not that this should be a shock. > **[The Virus Spread Where Restaurants Reopened or Mask Mandates Were Absent...](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/health/coronavirus-restaurant-dining-masks.html?searchResultPosition=1)** > > C.D.C. researchers found that coronavirus infections and death rates rose in U.S. counties permitting in-person dining or not requiring masks. So we should expect an increase in cases in Texas, and then an increase in the number of deaths. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2021, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1361 "2021-03-09T05:33:38Z")
Just linking the CDC report from the article in **Voyager** ’s post. > **[Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm)** > > This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ... > [@](#): > > During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p\<0.01 for all) ([Table 1](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm#T1_down)) ([Figure](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm#F1_down)). Mask mandates were associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease (p = 0.03) in daily COVID-19 death growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.9 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p\<0.01 for all). Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2021, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1362 "2021-11-10T03:00:00Z")
Interestingly enough, from two experts writing for _Newsweek_: > **[How Fauci Fooled America](https://www.newsweek.com/how-fauci-fooled-america-opinion-1643839)** > > Unfortunately, Dr. Fauci got major epidemiology and public health questions wrong. Reality and scientific studies have now caught up with him. That is, granular vaccinations, quarantines, etc., only. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2021, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1363 "2021-11-10T03:15:05Z")
> [@ralfy](#): > > Interestingly enough, from two experts writing for _Newsweek_ : > **[Who Are the Scientists Behind the Great Barrington Declaration?](https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/89204)** > > All three have advocated against lockdown measures since the start of the pandemic > **Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD** > > Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine and economics at Stanford University, was an early vocal opponent of coronavirus lockdowns beginning in early March. > > In a March 24 opinion piece published in the _Wall Street Journal_ when statewide lockdowns were beginning, Bhattacharya and a co-author [questioned the severity of the virus](https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464), stating that universal quarantines may not be worth the costs to the economy, social life, and population health. > **Martin Kulldorff, PhD** > > Kulldorff is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and Brigham & Women’s Hospital who develops epidemiological and statistical models to detect infectious disease outbreaks. The epidemiologist has repeatedly said that restrictions for young and healthy people are unwarranted, as the risk of COVID-19 mortality is a thousand times higher for the elderly than it is for youth. > > “While this is a very dangerous disease for the elderly, for children it’s much less dangerous than the annual flu,” Kulldorff [said in an August interview with _Contagion Live_](https://www.contagionlive.com/view/evaluating-age-based-coronavirus-strategies-martin-kulldorff). “And for people in their 20s and 30s, it’s not a dangerous disease at all.” If you want to trust their opinions, knock yourself out. ---
**Author:** ![ralfy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ralfy/32/600_2.png) [@ralfy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralfy)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2021, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356/1364 "2021-11-10T03:16:13Z")
Interestingly enough, the liberal press is doing so now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356.md?page=67) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-missing-something-here-re-reopening-of-bars-etc-now/922356.md?page=69)