# Am I the only one who thinks Hillary Clinton has no chance to be POTUS? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 3, 2013, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262 "2013-08-03T18:21:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/81 "2013-08-05T14:30:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Barack Obama inspired unusually high Democratic turnout, especially among the most Democratic-leaning groups. Do you really think black turnout rates will exceed white turnout rates with anyone else at the top of the ticket? How many millions of your voters do you think will die by 2016? how many millions of new Democrats do you think will be able to vote by then? We won’t need Obama’s black turn out, we just need you to continue being the old party and us to continue wiping the floor with you with young voters. I don’t think Republicans are not going to win in my lifetime, but they won’t right the ship by 2016, not when the crazies are still in charge. Eventually someone is going to have to tell them Obamacare is a done deal, abortion has already been decided, gays will marry and hispanics will receive amnesty. No one wants to do it right now, but they will have to. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/82 "2013-08-05T14:34:19Z")
I really don’t think Hillary will run, primarily because of her age. She can be more effective, politically, by campaigning for a younger Democratic star candidate. I really like Liz Warren, but with the same objection. It will be hard enough to elect a liberal woman; an _old_ liberal woman has one more hurdle to overcome. If she runs, I probably would not vote for her in the primaries. Of course it depends on who the other Dems are that run. I’ll surely vote in the general for whatever Dem gets the nomination, but if the GOP is sane enough to nominate Christie (big IF) he’ll be tough to beat. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/83 "2013-08-05T15:03:33Z")
Right now, we’re barely into Obama’s second term, so any predictions at this point are basically just speculation. Hell, we still have midterms and seeing how those results pan out on the electorate before we can see which way things are going. It’s highly unlikely that things will remain the status quo in 3 1/2 years, but we can suppose that. In all of that Clinton strikes me very much as a McCain or Romney type of candidate, people see her as the inevitable candidate, if she runs, and unless the Republicans are in a significantly worse spot than they are now, she’ll have a hard time getting the Democratic base fired up. Assuming the congressional obstructionism stays in place, rightly or wrongly, Obama will be seen as part of the problem (as the president always gets more than his fair share of blame or credit of legislative activity) by a lot of the swing voters. So, if the Republicans can get their crap together well enough to nominate a moderate candidate, like Christie, she’ll have an uphill battle. Hell, Christie has made a point of demonstrating his ability to work across party lines. Meanwhile, Clinton is an old name in Washington. So, IMO, if she gets the nomination, if the Republicans nominate a moderate, which admittedly looks iffy right now, she probably doesn’t stand much of a chance. But, really, we need to see mid-terms before we can say anything. Best case scenario for Clinton, I think, is that the Republicans gain seats, possibly even the Senate, in the midterms, they get all the blame for obstructionism, and then the Republicans nominate someone like Santorum. But even that all assumes that she doesn’t face stiff competition in the Democratic nomination. I think she would beat most of the other current front runners, but who knows. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/84 "2013-08-05T16:09:16Z")
An argument that boils down to “the Republicans will always increase their numbers while the Democrats will always decrease their numbers, just like I predicted in 2008 and 2012” does not get better with age. It’s true that many Republicans share this magical thinking with adaher. There’s an interesting counterargument that does not involve the black or Hispanic votes, merely the loss of white votes. It’s made in this [National Journal article](http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/why-white-voters-will-flee-a-white-only-party-20130801). > [@](#): > > But [analyst Sean]Trende and some Republicans argue that is not an unreachable goal, especially if Republicans can motivate the millions of whites “missing” from the 2012 election to vote next time, and if black turnout drops, post-Obama. (Trende pointed out that the Democratic presidential nominee, controlling for the political environment, has lost about 1.5 percentage points off the white vote every cycle since 1992.) But the GOP’s agenda and image may limit its ability to reach centrist white voters, especially those of the millennial generation. > > Seventy-six percent of likely millennial voters, for instance, say immigrants make the country a stronger place, according to a July poll from the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Just 61 percent of all likely voters agreed with that. “On a number of key issues, if the party appears to be intolerant of gays, minorities, or immigrants, it’s going to have trouble competing with this group,” says Michael Hais, a Democrat and a coauthor of the book Millennial Makeover. It’s not just Democrats saying this. > [@](#): > > College-educated women and suburban moderates hold similar views. Both groups are more accepting of diversity, and they recoil at the notion of backing a party that doesn’t encourage it. It’s a story that has played out in the GOP’s past, says Whit Ayers, a Republican pollster and immigration-reform advocate. The Republican Party’s perceived intolerance turned off voters who otherwise might have been drawn to the GOP on issues such as the economy and foreign policy. “It’s just like the white suburban women who were uncomfortable with politicians who used quasi-racist language,” he says. “They just don’t want to be associated with them.” The reality of every election is that there are gains and losses from all segments of adherents. Winning requires net gains. It completely falsifies your position to look at gains without losses or losses without gains. That’s wishful thinking at best, ludicrous propaganda at worst. P.S. Just so nobody writes off the site as a propaganda machine itself, look at the link on the page I cited, [Here’s How Republicans Can Take Over the Senate](http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/here-s-how-republicans-can-take-over-the-senate-20130801). It’s analytical and correctly, IMO, notes how close the Senate races will be in 2014. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/85 "2013-08-05T18:21:48Z")
> [@zoid](#): > > (snipped by me) > > If there is one single thing that would bring the Republican vote out in record numbers it would be Hillary running as the Democratic candidate IMHO. Oh come on. The GOP “hate machine’ can’t be revved any higher than it was vs Obama. ---
**Author:** ![CJJ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecc23a/32.png) [@CJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CJJ)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/86 "2013-08-05T18:51:17Z")
Could [this utterly-predictable RNC reaction](http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/05/rnc-boycott-threat-cnn-nbc-hillary-clinton) to the planned Hillary Clinton documentary/miniseries be a harbinger of 2016? > [@](#): > > The Republican National Committee has threatened a boycott of CNN and NBC in the runup to the next presidential election unless the networks cancel programmes they have planned on Hillary Clinton. > > Reince Priebus, chair of the RNC, wrote to the heads of CNN and NBC on Monday. He warned both networks that he would seek a binding committee vote next week to “neither partner with you in 2016 primary debates nor sanction primary debates which you sponsor”, unless they cancel the Clinton shows. > > Last week NBC announced plans for a four-hour mini-series on Clinton, with Diane Lane in the starring role. Two days later CNN revealed it had commissioned its films division to make a big-budget documentary on Clinton to air in 2014. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/87 "2013-08-05T18:52:48Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Oh come on. The GOP “hate machine’ can’t be revved any higher than it was vs Obama. I thought the same thing after Bubba left office. I was wrong. I’m afraid I will be wrong again. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/88 "2013-08-05T19:09:45Z")
> [@Sandwich](#): > > Oh, don’t be so coy. You and every other thoughtful conservative knows that in 2016 a solidly respectable conservative will be running against a frothing-at-the-mouth idiot supported by an army of morons with bizarre plans to implement absurdly radically incoherent policies, again. The GOP tried that in 2008 and 2012. The frother won. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![handsomeharry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e9c0ed/32.png) [@handsomeharry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/handsomeharry)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/89 "2013-08-05T19:18:20Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Or accounted for. They’re used to the existence of Dems and of female Dems. Where is all that Hillary-hate coming from?! I think that all of the Hillary-hate is a product of the Dems’ imaginations. I think you’re still living in the 90s. (This reminds me of something I heard in 1995/6: In 92, the Dems used the phrase “The last 12 years” to indicate that things had been bad since the Pubs got in in 1980. In 1995/6, I was listening to the radio, and some knee-jerk liberal was going on about what a glorious new wonder Clinton was, and then she said that it would be much better than ‘the last 12 years’-which would mean a Reagan-Bush-Clinton time frame. Hillary is being blown up as a big-time contender, now, but, when the time comes, she won’t even get the nod from the Democratic camp. Unless, of course, McCain is running. Her age will kill her off. Reagan, age-wise, was an anomaly, and McCain, well, how well did he do? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/90 "2013-08-05T19:19:47Z")
> [@Typo\_Knig](#): > > I thought the same thing after Bubba left office. I was wrong. I’m afraid I will be wrong again. Can’t, they already have gone up to ten, all that remains is painting the number 11 on their hate machines dial. 😛 And, they already launched most of the nastiest stuff vs her already. In a way this actually is a Good Thing. They have fully vetted her as a candidate for the Dems. 😃 The racist shit they unloaded on Obama, including “where’s the birth cert’ won’t stand. Sexist? Great, best thing that could do is attacking her even more as a woman and alienate their female voters too, just like they have completely lost the blacks and Hispanics. In fact, they will try that, and attack her on age also. Thus losing seniors and women. The GOP will hate themselves into a minor party. This will turn the GOP into Ross Perot or The American party. Hilary may be the best thing that happens to this nation, just based upon that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/91 "2013-08-05T22:05:16Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > But I think there is a step you are taking for granted, and that is that the turnout will decrease when Obama is no longer on the ticket. It is just as likely, I think, that it will maintain. It’s not like black turnout has suddenly spiked to 80%+. It’s merely caught up to where white turnout has always been (maybe 2% higher in 2012). All of those people that have now voted in two straight presidential elections will now just sit out? I guess I need more than a hunch to buy that. 2014 will tell us more, but I believe I’m on solid ground because when Obama wasn’t at the top of the ticket in 2010(or 2009 for that matter in two states), black voters didn’t turn out. Or young voters. I think that won’t be a problem for Clinton, because she brings her own enthusiastic supporters to the table. Just making the point that the Clinton coalition is not going to look exactly like the Obama coalition. And a Republican can bring his own unique coalition to beat her given the right set of circumstances. > [@](#): > > It’s also worth noting that these new voters didn’t just wake up and decide “hey, a black presidential candidate! I’m gonna go vote!”. They were targeted, registered, motivated, and driven to the polls. There is more to winning elections that just candidates and policies. This too. The campaign apparatus matters. But demographics alone can’t win elections. Democrats actually have to get their supporters to vote, which is never guaranteed. The Republican coalition is far more reliable. > [@](#): > > This is exactly what they (the GOP) needs to do. Stop pissing off Hispanics and Asians, who are very turned off by needlessly divisive rhetoric. I’m in contact with many Indian-Americans, a generally very GOP-friendly demographic, who are downright repulsed by large swaths of GOP elected officials. And that’s not even mentioning what the War On Terror has done to Muslim voting patterns. That’s what I’ve been talking about in the other thread, it’s the rhetoric, not the platform. > [@](#): > > You believe that the GOP will pass an immigration bill that the public will like. I kind of doubt it at this point. The GOP House lives in far more fear of an attack from the right than one from the center. The only thing the GOP is adamantly opposed to is all the goodies coming before effective enforcement. If they pass an enforcement first bill, or set of bills, it will be very popular. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2013, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/92 "2013-08-05T22:52:06Z")
> [@](#): > > The only thing the GOP is adamantly opposed to is all the goodies coming before effective enforcement. No, the only thing they’re adamantly opposed to is getting voted out of office. And the enforcement bills _already exist_. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/93 "2013-08-06T02:31:10Z")
And are not enforced. Which is why the public doesn’t believe that enforcement will ever happen. So to build trust, enforcement should start happening. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/94 "2013-08-06T02:52:56Z")
Which is Congress’s business how? While we’re at it, got any numbers for deportations under Obama vs. Bush? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/95 "2013-08-06T03:12:52Z")
I’m well aware of the increased deportations under Obama, which were done for political reasons, and stopped as soon as they ceased to be politically useful. There is no reason to trust that he’ll go back to even previous levels of enforcement once he has a bill in hand. However, if citizenship and legalization is contingent on enforcement goals, then he’ll meet those goals. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/96 "2013-08-06T03:25:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And are not enforced. Which is why the public doesn’t believe that enforcement will ever happen. So to build trust, enforcement should start happening. ??? The one thing Obama has done from day one to appease the Republican xenophobes is to ramp up enforcement of immigration laws big-time (even as the actual “problem” diminished mainly due to a less attractive economy), in the hope (I presume) that having proven his enforcement bona fides he would then be granted sane cooperation to make immigration laws resemble reality. ETA: adaher, you’ve begun to address the issue, I see. But why harmonizing law and reality (while thus improving law enforcement, health, and the economy, not to mention compassion) should be contingent on anything, is beyond me. But fine, have your stupid fence and all that crap. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/97 "2013-08-06T05:11:11Z")
It shouldn’t be contingent on anything. The law should be enforced, full stop, no negotiation on that point. Whether to grant amnesty, that’s negotiable. Enforcing the law is not. Obama stopped his stricter immigration policy before the 2012 elections and has no intention of reinstating it. Now he has a laxer policy than any President in history, only deporting criminals. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/98 "2013-08-06T09:41:16Z")
> [@astro](#): > > but if Christie could lose some weight he would (IMO) mop the floor with her. I call bullshit. The last 2 RINO’s GOP primary voters idiotically put on the general election ticket couldn’t beat a candidate who obviously doesn’t know WTF he’s doing, how is the RINO Supreme going to defeat a candidate that exhibits some traces of competence? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/99 "2013-08-06T11:15:04Z")
Who said anything about a RINO? We’re talking about Christie. The only, _only_, way that he’s not a Republican is that he was willing to cooperate with Obama on one very specific issue that was unambiguously to his (and his constituency’s) advantage. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2013, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262/100 "2013-08-06T11:21:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It shouldn’t be contingent on anything. The law should be enforced, full stop, no negotiation on that point. Whether to grant amnesty, that’s negotiable. Enforcing the law is not. Cool, we’re in agreement – the final immigraton law package should be enforced 100%. But that will only work if the law 100% is based on reality. Right now it’s based on about 20% of reality (my vague estimate), and was being enforced about 60% (Bush enforced it about 40%, and Obama is back down to maybe 35% – thanks for that info, I really wasn’t aware he’d loosened up). But enough of this hijack. Back to Hillary. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-the-only-one-who-thinks-hillary-clinton-has-no-chance-to-be-potus/665262.md?page=6)