# Am I wrong? (About Trump's and Biden's viability in the 2024 Election) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 13, 2023, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450 "2023-06-13T21:26:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Dodgy\_Dude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7bcc69/32.png) [@Dodgy\_Dude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dodgy_Dude)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2023, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/1 "2023-06-13T21:26:08Z")
Trump and Biden are both so politically radioactive that the race is going to be DeSantis vs Newsom. Am I wrong? If so, why? ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2023, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/2 "2023-06-13T21:28:40Z")
Because Republicans don’t like DeSantis and Democrats don’t like Newsom. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2023, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/3 "2023-06-13T21:29:49Z")
Biden is pretty well liked, as far as I can tell. I think there are people in both parties waiting in the wings in case either of the front runners fall away. Newsom is a possibility, but there are others. DeSantis is in the “pardon Trump on day 1” camp, which is going to be a problem for him. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2023, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/4 "2023-06-13T21:32:35Z")
Democrats like Biden and Republicans like Trump, so it’s probably going to be Biden vs Trump again. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 13, 2023, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/5 "2023-06-13T21:49:07Z")
Biden is only politically radioactive to people who live in a fantasy world where Trump is not a danger to the entire planet. I think many of the people still living in that fantasy land realize that Trump is radioactive, politically and otherwise, and are looking for an exit ramp, but DeSantis is actually a lightweight and his brief and waning political success in god’s green room is nowhere close to what is required to win the presidency. I expect Biden will get the Democratic nomination because he’s doing a really good job as president. It’s pretty easy to see we’ll get about the same from Biden in a second term while every other potential Democratic opponent is big question mark. That is based on the idea that events in the next year don’t significantly change the picture. It is only a little over a year until the conventions, mere months until the primary circus begins. I think the odds favor some significant event popping up in the next year that will make a difference. Except that I have to consider that the world has gone crazy because we’re talking about two men well into their geezerhood running for president, and here we are, it’s happening now, so if that’s not enough to turn people off maybe nothing will. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/6 "2023-06-14T00:18:15Z")
Neither Gavin Newsom, nor any other Democrat outside of a couple of fringe candidates, have given any indication that they intend to challenge Biden for the nomination. So that would be one way you’re wrong. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/7 "2023-06-14T00:21:56Z")
So yes, OP, you are wrong. Totally and completely wrong. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/8 "2023-06-14T02:40:39Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Democrats like Biden and Republicans like Trump, so it’s probably going to be Biden vs Trump again. ⁢ But a lot more Democrats like Biden or at least are willing to tolerate him. There are Republicans actively fighting against Trump. But I’d say question is about independents. And they seem to hate Trump a lot more than Biden. The only Biden haters I see are Republican. So, sure, the contest will likely be anti-Trump people vs. anti-Biden people. But there seem to be more of the former. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/9 "2023-06-14T04:07:20Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Biden is only politically radioactive to people who live in a fantasy world where Trump is not a danger to the entire planet. And, those people almost certainly consider any Democratic nominee to be “radioactive”. So not much point worrying about them. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/10 "2023-06-14T12:17:48Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > DeSantis is in the “pardon Trump on day 1” camp,… So, he’s just assuming that Trump will be convicted? I wish I had his optimism. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/11 "2023-06-14T12:21:53Z")
> [@Dodgy\_Dude](#): > > Am I wrong? If so, why? Yes. Extraordinarily so. Why? Because Biden is not even a little bit politically radioactive. Where did you get that idea? I’m not expecting an answer as you don’t seem to ever return to your political threads. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/12 "2023-06-14T12:27:17Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I’m not expecting an answer as you don’t seem to ever return to your political threads. Yeah, I’m not sure it’s worth answering, given this history. I’ll say that Biden isn’t radioactive to Democrats and will cruise to the nomination, so the OP is wrong on that front at least. Given the internal fighting in the GOP these days, with everyone trying to out-crazy each other, who knows what will happen. The last time you started a political thread, you never returned. That is your prerogative, but I think it’s bad form. At least come back and acknowledge that maybe you’re wrong or the other posters have given you something to think about, or something. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/13 "2023-06-14T13:44:04Z")
The incumbent you have to be seen as a pretty big F-up _by their own party_ to not be renominated and Biden is too much of a conceited ass to consider not running if he can still be propped up (ditto for Trump BTW). As for the Pub side, if you are Trump-lite (like DeSantis) then why would anyone vote for you in the primary and not for Trump himself? And if you are one of the moderate Republicans (I think I counted 6 at the national level) you better hope the Pubs pull their heads out of their butts and vote for you … which I hold out no hope for. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/14 "2023-06-14T21:55:32Z")
> [@Dodgy\_Dude](#): > > Trump and Biden are both so politically radioactive that the race is going to be DeSantis vs Newsom. Biden’s radioactive with Trump’s base, so he definitely will fail to win the GOP nomination. And Trump’s radioactive with pretty much every Democrat, so he will definitely fail to win the Dem nomination. But Democrats are overwhelmingly behind Biden, and the alleged GOP challengers are afraid to say anything remotely critical about Trump or say what they’d do that he wouldn’t. Which tells you where the power lies within that party. So unless Trump is in prison or drops dead, it’s going to be Biden v. Trump. And it might well be that way even if Trump _is_ in prison. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2023, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/15 "2023-06-14T22:37:27Z")
> [@Dodgy\_Dude](#): > > Trump and Biden are both so politically radioactive that the race is going to be DeSantis vs Newsom. > > Am I wrong? If so, why? It’s indeed possible that the current front-runners will be de-throned. But I think the starting point is the polls. They distill everything we know about the state of the race. Might the state of the race change? Sure. But I don’t see how I could even half-way reliably predict which direction it will go. The polling averages seem to me to be the political equivalent of stock prices. The current price of a stock (multiplied by the number of shares outstanding) distills all the currently known, rational and irrational, information about that company’s future value. That’s why the best economists, who are also stock market experts, are skeptical about stock-picking. It might.be objected that this leaves us too little to talk about. I personally still find lots to say, but there could be an issue there. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2023, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/16 "2023-06-15T10:14:16Z")
The OP is wrong, unless we’re talking about Hunter Biden for some reason. And even then I wouldn’t cal him “politically radioactive.” Just unelectable. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2023, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/17 "2023-06-15T11:06:34Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > we’ll get about the same from Biden in a second term while every other potential Democratic opponent is big question mark. This is the crux of the matter. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2023, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/18 "2023-06-15T11:26:20Z")
I certainly wouldn’t vote for Hunter Biden. Nor would I vote for any of Trump’s children. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2023, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/19 "2023-06-15T16:53:34Z")
That’s really it - it’ll be Trump v. Biden, unless somehow, something about one of his trials derails that, in which case it’ll likely be DeSantis. v. Biden. As far as the general election goes, it’s basically going to fall on the people who for some unfathomable reason consider there to be a decision between Trump & Biden that needs to be made. I’m not sure who these people are, or how their minds work, but they’re going to be the ones that decide the election one way or another. Most people however, have long since made up their minds about this. Now if it’s DeSantis v. Biden, that middle group becomes a lot bigger I fear, as there are a lot of people who are essentially GOP voters, but who dislike Trump personally and are effectively holding their noses to vote for Biden because Trump himself is so personally odious _as shown during his term_. They likely don’t consider DeSantis to be quite so bad, because other than the odd news story about him, they don’t know him. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2023, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450/20 "2023-06-15T18:37:15Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > The incumbent you have to be seen as a pretty big F-up _by their own party_ to not be renominated and Biden is too much of a conceited ass to consider not running if he can still be propped up (ditto for Trump BTW). To be fair, nobody but a conceited ass would run for POTUS in the first place. There are degrees of course, but nobody humble would do a presidential campaign. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/am-i-wrong-about-trumps-and-bidens-viability-in-the-2024-election/985450.md?page=2)