# Amateur Campaign Consultants:What does Sanders need next Tuesday **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 9, 2016, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475 "2016-03-09T21:06:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/41 "2016-03-11T14:25:35Z")
You may well be right. It’s a darn good bet Boone county = Columbia & Cape Girardeau will go pretty hard over for Sanders. St. Louis City or KC’s Jackson county? Not so much. In greater St.Louis I’d bet St. Charles & Jefferson counties will go pretty strong Clinton and St. Louis County will be too close or me to call from this distance. I don’t really know how to score the KC suburbs nor the real out-counties. The far out counties have pretty small D electorates, so small numerical differences will make big impacts on each district’s results. One three-generation family’s overstuffed pickup truck breaking down on the way to the polling place could turn the D primary in Bumfuck county. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/42 "2016-03-11T17:09:36Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I think that Sanders could work the Senate very well. And, it doesn’t matter. If Sanders were to die in the first year - and anyone can die, but the chances of a 75 year old man doing it over the next few years are higher than someone in their 50s - the House and Senate would have to approve a replacement by a majority vote. If either is controlled by the GOP, you won’t have a VP. Then the person who replaces Hillary is the Speaker of the House. At that point the House doubles down on impeachment and in our three ring circus, all the animals are let loose out of their cages and a fire is set to the big top. The Democrats won’t risk that. They want to make sure that it isn’t very appealing for the House to impeach Clinton because her replacement will be just as bad. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/43 "2016-03-11T17:22:33Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > If there is any chance at a Cruz nomination, look for a Hispanic (probably with the last name Castro) - she gets more leeway with Trump. Personally, I’d choose Thomas Perez over Julian Castro. If I were choosing. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/44 "2016-03-11T17:55:11Z")
Yeah, but Perez is far more controversial than Castro (though Perez is really cool guy - I’ve met him once when we was touring local US DOL offices). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/45 "2016-03-11T18:21:29Z")
Guys, come on. Do you need to turn this into a “who should Hillary pick for VP?” thread? My takeaway from comments so far: So people seem to agree it’s pretty hopeless in Florida and NC. Figure all he can do there is try to mobilize his supporters as best as possible to try and keep the beating to as low as possible. Florida is particularly problematic as he can’t get out the independent vote for help. Illinois and Ohio look like his best bets for an upset. The only leverage mentioned so far is the long time allegiance with the unpopular Governor in Illinois. Some googling show that she had to walk back a little on the complete backing of him as recently as January. Missouri seems nebulous. SlackerInc’s number crunching site seems to think it’ll go his way but there’s zero polling going on. So can anyone think of what he’s got to do in Ohio to get a win there? Is there a good wedge he can hammer? ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/46 "2016-03-11T18:28:09Z")
It’s actually the mayor of Chicago , Rahm Emanuel, that has Clinton ties. The governor of Illinois is Republican Bruce Rauner, who is also unpopular. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/47 "2016-03-11T18:30:32Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > It’s actually the mayor of Chicago , Rahm Emanuel, that has Clinton ties. The governor of Illinois is Republican Bruce Rauner, who is also unpopular. Oops. Thank you for pointing out my error. I had the name right in my head but I forgot he was just mayor. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/48 "2016-03-11T18:54:26Z")
Rahm bounced into the mayorship after serving as Obama’s chief of staff; in the minds of most Chicagoans, he’s an Obama crony, not a Clintonite. And while Emanuel isn’t popular, Obama still is. I’m guessing the issue would be, at best, a wash. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2016, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/49 "2016-03-11T19:04:45Z")
He has extensive history with the Clintons. He was a Senior Advisor to Bill during his Presidency and as I said, Hillary was publicly defending him recently wrt to the McDonald shooting investigation. Plus, Hillary is advertising herself as continuing Obama’s work. It would not be difficult to portray him as a Clinton crony just as much as an Obama one. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2016, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/50 "2016-03-12T23:48:37Z")
FWIW Sanders [may be a closet doper](http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/12/tough-words-from-bernie-sanders-on-rahm-emanuel/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Politics&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body) … > [@NYT](#): > > “Hillary Clinton proudly lists Mayor Rahm Emanuel as one of her leading mayoral endorsers,” Mr. Sanders said. “Well let me be as clear as I can be: based on his disastrous record as mayor of the city of Chicago, I do not want Mayor Emanuel’s endorsement if I win the Democratic nomination.” > > Mr. Sanders went on to say that Mr. Emanuel was not the type of leader that he would want to be connected with because the mayor has closed schools and fired teachers while keeping close ties with Wall Street banks. Mr. Sanders also criticized the city for paying banks that “lured the school system into a risky investment in an exotic debt-financing scheme.” … > > … The senator stopped short of calling for Mr. Emanuel to resign. But he said that if he lived in Chicago, he would join the efforts to have him step down. Many Sanders supporters in Chicago have been demanding the mayor resign for months. … ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/51 "2016-03-13T00:02:40Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > …in the minds of most Chicagoans, he’s an Obama crony, not a Clintonite. And while Emanuel isn’t popular, Obama still is. I’m guessing the issue would be, at best, a wash. As a Chicagoan I am pretty sure you would be wrong about that. I’ve never seen a politician in this city despised as thoroughly as Rahm is at this point by pretty much every demographic. Even Gov. Blago wasn’t hated like this guy is. To what extent it will hurt Hillary I don’t know but it won’t be “a wash”. > [@DSeid](#): > > FWIW Sanders [may be a closet doper](http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/12/tough-words-from-bernie-sanders-on-rahm-emanuel/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Politics&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body) … Yep, saw that earlier. We will see how that works out for him. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/52 "2016-03-13T01:31:08Z")
The people trying to get him out are fucking retarded. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/53 "2016-03-13T02:17:45Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > The people trying to get him out are fucking retarded. They`re still allowed to vote! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/54 "2016-03-13T02:40:36Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > The people trying to get him out are fucking retarded. Which him out of which what? Sanders out of the primary or Emanuel out of the mayoralty? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/55 "2016-03-13T10:28:09Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Which him out of which what? Sanders out of the primary or Emanuel out of the mayoralty? The latter. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/56 "2016-03-13T15:31:07Z")
Something that’s essentially been said but maybe not succinctly: **On Tuesday Sanders need to reduce his delegate margin from Hillary down from 225 (225 as of Today, Clinton won the Northern Marianas 4-2 delegates) to some number lower than 225.** At the end of the day Tuesday 49.8% (let’s call it half) of all delegates in the primary will have been allocated. So it would no longer be the case that “it’s still so early, so many states haven’t voted etc”, because we’ll be on the “downward slope” after Tuesday. Mathematically that means that for the second half of the primaries to have any chance of swinging the election to Bernie he needs a smaller margin between him and Hillary. If he wins “Michigan style”, Missouri, Illinois and Ohio but Hillary wins Florida by the estimated amount, he would still lose margin–and likely that’s when it’s very hard to not consider him mathematically eliminated. The media will be talking about who won which State on Tuesday, as “educated observers” watch the delegates, if that margin stays at 225 or higher, then it doesn’t matter who won what state, the race is over. I just plotted out a projection where Bernie wins every state but Florida roughly similar to how he won Michigan (so I give him 51.5% of the delegates from those states, using standard rounding rules and giving Hillary the remainders.) That creates splits like this: Illinois: 80/76 +4 Margin Missouri: 37/34 +3 Margin North Carolina: 55-52 +3 Margin Ohio: 74/69 +5 Margin Total Margin from Wins: 15 Then I estimated Hillary wins Florida with 58% of the vote (the 538 projection is she wins it with 68% of the vote, so I’m docking her 10 points): Florida: 124/90 +34 margin So she goes up 19 more delegates in the margins, and Bernie now trails by 244, and he needs to win 56% of all delegates remaining. That means he has to beat Hillary by 12% in 29 straight elections. Including places like Maryland with very high black populations, or New York where she was a Senator, and the Appalachian states which are rural and white but which supported Hillary tremendously versus Obama in 2008 (i.e., we don’t know if they’re going to look more like Oklahoma or more like the South.) If he won even one of those states by say, 5%, then his numbers for the other 28 have to be higher. If she wins even one, the numbers higher still. That’s how a “delegate squeeze” works, he not only has to win, he has to win by large margins, in every election. Note this above scenario is pretty generous. It assumes in the four open primaries that day, in three of them Bernie has polling upsets about the same as those in Michigan–which have been called historic. Several of these states also have things going against Sanders, like early voting (so a late swing to him will be less impactful) and some like North Carolina or Ohio have pretty good economies. Ohio is a rust belt state like Michigan, but has actually been able to do pretty well economically (Trump says it’s because of fracking, which hasn’t hurt, but a lot of it is also that Ohio just has a more diversified economy, a large educated work force, and a lot of major corporations are headquartered there, it’s also a transportation hub for the eastern United States.) It also assumes in Florida, where you had to pre-register as a Democrat 29 days before Tuesday, that has high numbers of non-whites, that has a somewhat older electorate than the norm, that Sanders still takes Hillary down from the 68% she’s polling to 58%–even doing that he loses margin. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/57 "2016-03-13T19:06:12Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > SThe media will be talking about who won which State on Tuesday, as “educated observers” watch the delegates, if that margin stays at 225 or higher, then it doesn’t matter who won what state, the race is over. Good analysis. Yes, “winning states” is meaningless. It’s _delegates._ Win Maine, Alaska and Vermont all you want, but a big win in Texas erases them all- and more. Clinton picked up 70 delegates there, about 5 Vermonts. Yes, Sanders “won” Michigan, which was great- but he only got a measly 7 delegates over Clinton there (it’s not a "winner take all state). Florida is big, and it’s critical in the National election, too. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2016, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/58 "2016-03-13T19:26:44Z")
And Sanders actually only built a 4 delegate margin in Michigan (so he actually hit his 538 target of 67, he did not exceed it) as the results were fully tabulated his delegate count went down from 69 to 67, and Hillary ended up at 63. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2016, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/59 "2016-03-15T00:26:33Z")
[This new CBS News poll](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016-trump-and-kasich-neck-and-neck-ohio-trump-leads-florida/) shows Bernie leading in Illinois 48% to HRC’s 46%. In the other states he hasn’t closed the gap but it appears he has made significant progress here. And, yes, I realize he needs to pull off wins in ALL the states tomorrow for this to be seriously meaningful. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2016, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475/60 "2016-03-15T00:46:48Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > [This new CBS News poll](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016-trump-and-kasich-neck-and-neck-ohio-trump-leads-florida/) shows Bernie leading in Illinois 48% to HRC’s 46%. In the other states he hasn’t closed the gap but it appears he has made significant progress here. > > And, yes, I realize he needs to pull off wins in ALL the states tomorrow for this to be seriously meaningful. Clinton up by three in Illinois in the PPP poll. But your bigger point is the bigger point. If Sanders only wins Illinois, and that in a squeaker, and loses all of the others he’s trailing in in the polls, he’s in pretty bad shape. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/amateur-campaign-consultants-what-does-sanders-need-next-tuesday/748475.md?page=4)