# America, the second **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 27, 2011, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840 "2011-04-27T00:04:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/1 "2011-04-27T00:04:21Z")
It seems the age of worldwide economical dominance for the U.S. will have an end in FIVE years. At least from what the news show. [http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics-mainmenu-44/7263-imf-chinese-economy-to-surpass-us-by-2016](http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics-mainmenu-44/7263-imf-chinese-economy-to-surpass-us-by-2016) How will the U.S. addapt to a China richer than itself? Will China develop a more advanced army? What’s up? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/2 "2011-04-27T00:13:01Z")
Hmm, so with 4 times the number of people they haven’t passed us yet? I’m not worried. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/3 "2011-04-27T00:17:55Z")
From your cite: > [@](#): > > The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now predicts that the size of China’s economy will surpass America’s by 2016, far earlier than most mainstream economists have been forecasting. **Some analysts ridiculed the Fund’s prediction** , but others warned that it could happen even sooner. My emphasis. You’d have to look at which analysts ridiculed the prediction, which feel it’s spot on and which think it’s going to happen sooner in order to judge the merits of the case. > [@](#): > > The IMF forecast calculated that in five years, using GDP figures based on “purchasing power parity,” the Chinese economy would represent just over 18 percent of the world total, up from around 14 percent right now. According to the Fund’s projections, China’s adjusted GDP will rise from about $11.2 trillion in 2011 to $19 trillion by 2016. So…China’s ADJUSTED GDP will rise to those levels. What will the US’s ‘adjusted’ GDP be at that point, considering that today it’s actual level is $15 trillion. Why the prediction that the US economy will drop or stay exactly the same in the same time frame? Hell, how do they calculate the adjustment…I thought China’s actual GDP was $5 trillion right now? -XT ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/4 "2011-04-27T00:17:56Z")
@TriPolar But the power of a country is measured by the GDP. The GDP per capita is the relative richness of the people; not of the country. Now, thinking a bit about it. Since 5 years from now, China will have the same budget than the U.S., and the difference will keep growing! That means that if they wanted, they could expend more in deffense than the U.S. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/5 "2011-04-27T00:19:54Z")
You usually use nominal GDP when making comparisons between countries for comparing geo-political strength, and PPP GDP (which is what the OP’s article is) for comparing living standards. So by the more conventional measure, China is still something like a factor of three behind the US. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/6 "2011-04-27T00:23:13Z")
A country full of poor people can’t afford to “waste” as much money as smaller country full of richer people. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/7 "2011-04-27T00:28:07Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > @TriPolar > > But the power of a country is measured by the GDP. The GDP per capita is the relative richness of the people; not of the country. Please provide the formula for calculating the power of a country based on GDP. > [@](#): > > Now, thinking a bit about it. Since 5 years from now, China will have the same budget than the U.S., and the difference will keep growing! That means that if they wanted, they could expend more in deffense than the U.S. Why would they want to? And if they are even dumber than us and spend the money, they will hurt their own economy as badly as we have ours with pointless defense spending. ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/8 "2011-04-27T00:30:35Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Why would they want to? And if they are **even dumber than us** and spend the money, they will hurt their own economy as badly as we have ours with pointless defense spending. I must agree with that 😃 Actually, people forget that the Soviet Union falled down for wasting to much in guns and too little in domestic goods. ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/9 "2011-04-27T00:40:29Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > My emphasis. You’d have to look at which analysts ridiculed the prediction, which feel it’s spot on and which think it’s going to happen sooner in order to judge the merits of the case. > -XT Well, here you can find an “opposing” view. If you read it, you’ll see the arguments aren’t convincing. [http://voices.washingtonpost.com/shortstack/2010/01/china\_is\_not\_likely\_to\_surpass.html](http://voices.washingtonpost.com/shortstack/2010/01/china_is_not_likely_to_surpass.html) ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/10 "2011-04-27T00:46:29Z")
Let them pass us. Big deal. Then all the news “pundits” will spend their time talking about China’s imminent collapse and leave us the fuck alone. Then we can go back to slaughtering the buffalo, wiping out the indigs, and all the other things that made us Great. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/11 "2011-04-27T00:49:10Z")
So what? America still has a stronger per capita income and China’s growing prosperity will mean a democratic awakening and another friendly power within most of our lifetimes. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/12 "2011-04-27T00:50:21Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > I must agree with that 😃 > > Actually, people forget that the Soviet Union falled down for wasting to much in guns and too little in domestic goods. We spend less money of defence percentage-wise since the Cold War. We do spend a little more since the '90s largely due to the War on Terror but we are not spending excessive amounts of money in extravagant defence spending. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/13 "2011-04-27T01:02:43Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > We spend less money of defence percentage-wise since the Cold War. We do spend a little more since the '90s largely due to the War on Terror but we are not spending excessive amounts of money in extravagant defence spending. Extravagance is in the eye of the beholder, but we have spent enormous sums on questionable efforts in Iraq and Pakistan. We spend money on planes the military doesn’t even want. As I’ve pointed out before, the world’s largest Air Force is the US Air Force. The second largest is the US Navy. Our boats have more planes than any other country’s air force. And China, along with the rest of the world has enjoyed free passage of goods and people on the open seas and in the air because of the money we spend. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/14 "2011-04-27T01:07:54Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Extravagance is in the eye of the beholder, but we have spent enormous sums on questionable efforts in Iraq and Pakistan. We spend money on planes the military doesn’t even want. As I’ve pointed out before, the world’s largest Air Force is the US Air Force. The second largest is the US Navy. Our boats have more planes than any other country’s air force. And China, along with the rest of the world has enjoyed free passage of goods and people on the open seas and in the air because of the money we spend. We’re fulfilling the same role the Royal Navy did from Trafalgar to the outbreak of the Great War in that sense. And I didn’t say there were programs that could be cut for efficiency but “AAAAAAAAAAAAARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG American military spending is ruining the nation!!!” is a myth. ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/15 "2011-04-27T01:08:53Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > …And China, along with the rest of the world has enjoyed free passage of goods and people on the open seas and in the air because of the money we spend. Don’t expect the world thanks the U.S. something they got for free.:rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/16 "2011-04-27T01:10:27Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > “AAAAAAAAAAAAARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG American military spending is ruining the nation!!!” is a myth. Yes. The U.S. only expend half of its budget in military expending. So, let’s wait when 3/4 of the U.S. budget goes to guns… Perhaps then it will have an effect in the economy. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/17 "2011-04-27T01:13:29Z")
[QUOTE=pinguin] Yes. The U.S. only expend half of its budget in military expending. So, let’s wait when 3/4 of the U.S. budget goes to guns… Perhaps then it will have an effect in the economy. [/QUOTE] The US doesn’t spend half of it’s budget on the [military](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2007.png). :rolleyes: Seriously, did you think that people would just take your unsubstantiated snark for it?? Or that something like 99% of the 'dopers reading this, regardless of political stripe didn’t know you were full of it by making such a statement? -XT ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/18 "2011-04-27T01:17:00Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Extravagance is in the eye of the beholder, but we have spent enormous sums on questionable efforts in Iraq and Pakistan. We spend money on planes the military doesn’t even want. As I’ve pointed out before, the world’s largest Air Force is the US Air Force. The second largest is the US Navy. Our boats have more planes than any other country’s air force. And China, along with the rest of the world has enjoyed free passage of goods and people on the open seas and in the air because of the money we spend. Of course building and maintaining over 900 military bases around the world is a huge expense too. Add the money spent on the CIa and TSA and the amount is jacked up even higher. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/19 "2011-04-27T01:19:25Z")
As a percentage of GDP, who do you suppose spends more on their military? The US or China? -XT ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2011, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840/20 "2011-04-27T01:23:14Z")
OK, But is more than 800 billions, isn’t? U.S. Budget is half the World’s military expending [http://www.markorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/us\_vs\_world-miltary-spending.gif](http://www.markorton.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/us_vs_world-miltary-spending.gif) For the U.S. Budget [http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/budget\_current\_gs.php?year=2009\_2014&view=1&expand=300080&expandC=&units=b&fy=fy10](http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/budget_current_gs.php?year=2009_2014&view=1&expand=300080&expandC=&units=b&fy=fy10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/america-the-second/579840.md?page=2)