# American Idol Prediction Challenge **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [January 30, 2003, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631 "2003-01-30T15:48:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/1 "2003-01-30T15:48:15Z")
Let’s have a game around American Idol. To play the game, you must pick 1. Who’ll win, and 2. Who will be the runnerup. You get a maximum of 20 points for picking either, but - You only get half points if your chosen winner ends up as the runnerup, or vice versa. - You can change your votes. But the later you change your vote the more points you will lose. After EACH quarterfinal round (the 32 remaining contestants are squaring off in groups of 8) a changed vote loses 2 points automatically. It doesn’t matter if you’re changing your vote because your pick got booted off, or if you just like someone else better. If your pick doesn’t win or end up as runnerup, but DOES make the final eight and you picked them before their quarterfinal, you’ll get 1 consolation point. So in theory you could get 40 points. On the other hand, if you picked the winner as the runnerup, and didn’t pick the runnerup, and picked her/him after all the quarterfinals, you would get exactly two points - (20/2)-(2\*4). Here are your choices: [BETTIS RICHARDSON](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/bettisrichardson.htm) The non-partying member of the party trio [CHARLES GRIGSBY](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/charlesgrigsby.htm) Black kid who usually wears a knit cap [J.D. ADAMS](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/jdadams.htm) Handsome white kid who Simon praised during open auditions [JULIA DEMATO](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/juliademato.htm) Hairdresser who got into a tiff with her partners [KIMBERLEY CALDWELL](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/kimberlycaldwell.htm) Blonde girl who was the ringleader of Julia’s group [LASHUNDRA COBBINS](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/lashundracobbins.htm) Pretty, chocolate-skinned girl from the Nashville audition [MEOSHA DENTON](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/meoshadenton.htm) Don’t remember this girl [PATRICK FORTSON](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/patrickfortson.htm) Heavyset black guy - not the REALLY big one, though [ASHLEY HARTMAN](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/ashleyhartman.htm) Very young blonde girl [CANDICE COLEMAN](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/candicecoleman.htm) Very small, young-looking girl with straight brown hair [CHIP DAYS](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/chipdays.htm) Don’t remember this guy [CLAY AIKEN](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/clayaiken.htm) Geeky-looking redheaded guy with an amazing voice [COREY CLARK](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/coreyclark.htm) Party on, dude!!! [EQUOIA COLEMAN](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/equoiacoleman.htm) No relation to Candace. Only girl named “Equoia” in the world. [FRENCHIE DAVIS](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/frenchiedavis.htm) Big Aretha-style girl with dyed hair who reconciled the warring girl foursome [GEORGE TRICE](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/georgetrice.htm) Don’t remember this guy [HADAS SHALEV](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/hadasshalev.htm) Don’t remember her either [JACOB SMALLEY](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/jacobsmalley.htm) Cutesy kid with curly hair [JENNIFER FUENTES](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/jenniferfuentes.htm) Cute girl, one of the first picked in the first show IIRC [JORDAN SEGUNDO](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/jordansegundo.htm) Youngest guy in the competition [JOSHUA GRACIN](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/joshuagracin.htm) The Marine. Salute!!! How does he get all this leave? [KIMBERLEY LOCKE](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/kimberleylocke.htm) The other big girl who performed with Frenchie [KIMBERLY KELSEY](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/kimberlykelsey.htm) Unique-looking person - see Web site - struggled a bit in the last show [LOUIS GAZZARA](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/louisgazzara.htm) Don’t remember this kid [NASHEKA SIDDALL](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/nashekasiddall.htm) No memory of her either. I feel like Leonard in the hotel room. [PATRICK LAKE](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/patricklake.htm) Rocker guy [REBECCA BOND](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/rebeccabond.htm) Memory problem again [RICKEY SMITH](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/rickeysmith.htm) Hercules! Hercules! Hercules! [RUBEN STUDDARD](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/rubenstuddard.htm) Great big guy with the sweet voice [SAMANTHA COHEN](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/samanthacohen.htm) No sir, don’t recall this one [SYLVIA CHIBILITI](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/sylviachibiliti.htm) Girl who sort of looks like Angela Bassett [VANESSA OLIVAREZ](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/vanessaolivarez.htm) Punk girl All their pictures are available in the links. PLACE YOUR BETS!!! ---
**Author:** ![Yossarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/9de0a6/32.png) [@Yossarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yossarian)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/2 "2003-01-30T16:03:12Z")
**Frenchie** wins it through overwhelming talent coupled with empathy. I’ll have to contemplate runner-up… ---
**Author:** ![Greywolf73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d9b06d/32.png) [@Greywolf73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greywolf73)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/3 "2003-01-30T16:20:47Z")
Frenchie is my bet for winner. No question about that. I think Julie the hairdresser will be runner-up…maybe. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Cheatem\_Undhow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/13edae/32.png) [@Dewey\_Cheatem\_Undhow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Cheatem_Undhow)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/4 "2003-01-30T16:23:51Z")
This is my “sentimental list” – I doubt this’ll actually be the top 10, this is just the list I’d like to see make it on pure “they’re not Barbie clones” or “gee, they seem really nice” grounds. Bettis Richardson Clay Aiken Frenchie Davis Kimberley Locke Ruben Studdard Joshua Gracin Vanessa Olivarez Rickey Smith Kimberly Caldwell Julia DeMato Hafta think about who wins. I agree Frenchie on pure talent, but I don’t know if she’ll pull in the votes from the general public. An R&B trio of Frenchie Davis, Kimberley Locke and Ruben Studdard would totally kick ass. ---
**Author:** ![Mullinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@Mullinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mullinator)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/5 "2003-01-30T16:37:21Z")
I will be the vote of the common man who hasn’t seen one second of this show. Might as well take a stab and see how spectacularly my two randomly picked people flame out. Note: This pick is made without looking at pictures, video, or hearing what they sound like. It is simply based on random numbers. Winner: Rickey Smith Runner-up: Kimberley Caldwell ---
**Author:** ![okielady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/fbc32d/32.png) [@okielady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/okielady)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/6 "2003-01-30T16:54:42Z")
Kimberly Caldwell Kimberly Locke ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/7 "2003-01-30T16:59:12Z")
Going on the theory that the most air time has gone to the contestants the judges already like and will pick: Winner: Frenchie Davis (you go, girl!) Runner up: Clay Aiken, another blow for substance over style Third: Ruben Studdard , with props to Cpl. Gracin before he gets sent overseas ---
**Author:** ![NailBunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ecae2f/32.png) [@NailBunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NailBunny)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/8 "2003-01-30T17:07:49Z")
I second **ElivisL1ves** ’s predictions. I lurve me some Clay Aiken, but he just doesn’t have enough presence to win. Frenchie, on the other hand, has major presence, is really cute and someone that a lot of the voting public can relate to, and has an amazing voice and great style. She’s totally a winner. ---
**Author:** ![Glory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/7cd45c/32.png) [@Glory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Glory)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/9 "2003-01-30T17:20:07Z")
> [@](#): > > Going on the theory that the most air time has gone to the contestants the judges already like and will pick: An interesting theory considering Kelly Clarkston didn’t get much screentime at all until the final 30! 🙂 Considering the next state of the competition involves the public, I think the contestants who’ve received 0 face time are going to have a more difficult time, very unfair (although it worked for Kelly) ---
**Author:** ![Batsinma\_Belfry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ea5d25/32.png) [@Batsinma\_Belfry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batsinma_Belfry)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/10 "2003-01-30T18:21:01Z")
Winner: Frenchie Runner up: I want to say Clay although his style is more "broadway"and I think that’s going to hurt him with the audience voting. So instead I’ll say Ruben (him so cute and sweet)🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/11 "2003-01-30T19:17:15Z")
Oh, and my picks: Winner: Frenchie Davis Runner-Up: J.D. Adams I like Frenchie, and I even like her bio the most. She’s the most talented, has the best stage presence, and is substantially different from Kelly Clarkson, which I think will work in her favor. She really looks and sounds like a woman among children; despite the non-Britney look, her talent could just blow the field away. I’d LIKE Rickey Smith to be runner-up but I think the Adams kid has the right mix of charisma, looks and talent to take second place. Nonetheless, Rickey could pull an upset; his performance doing “The Way You Make Me Feel” was just awesome, he’s getting better every day. I really don’t like Julia DeMato. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/12 "2003-01-30T19:44:28Z")
I like Bettis Richardson’s look and sound, as well as Juliia DeMato. But on the [Bettis Richardson](http://idolonfox.com/contestants/bettisrichardson.htm) page, where it asks if he thought the process was fair, he said, “Yes. Sort of. The whole need more black thing, “fill the quota,” was obvious.” Hmm, probably not the smartest thing in the world to say. Seems he needs to work on his public relations skills a little. Happy ---
**Author:** ![Green\_Bean](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/green_bean/32/1760_2.png) [@Green\_Bean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Green_Bean)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/13 "2003-01-30T22:27:26Z")
1. Frenchie. 2. Rickey. Although there is a good chance that Rickey will not do as well due to his non-Idol-ish look. HERCULES! ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/14 "2003-01-30T23:03:43Z")
Well as I mentioned in the other thread I am cynical about who I expect them to pick. My predections. 1. Julie. Great voice, Nice tits and knows how to use them. 2. J.D. Ken-doll come to life with good voice(at least in first audition, I didn’t notice him during this show). ---
**Author:** ![SmackFu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/53a042/32.png) [@SmackFu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmackFu)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2003, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/15 "2003-01-30T23:39:57Z")
Win: Vanessa Olivarez (the redhead) Place: Joshua Gracin (the marine) Show: Clay Aiken ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2003, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/16 "2003-01-31T00:37:25Z")
Julia DeMato ---
**Author:** ![drm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e57/32.png) [@drm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drm)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2003, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/17 "2003-01-31T00:39:04Z")
Crud hit it too soon. RUnner up, Rickey Smith ---
**Author:** ![js\_africanus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/87869e/32.png) [@js\_africanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/js_africanus)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2003, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/18 "2003-01-31T05:22:30Z")
First place: Frenchie Runner-up: the bullet sponge ---
**Author:** ![EhhMon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ce73a5/32.png) [@EhhMon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EhhMon)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2003, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-prediction-challenge/151631/19 "2003-01-31T15:54:09Z")
Although I like Frenchie to win, I don’t think its gonna happen, remember last year when AJ and Jim made it to the top 10…it was the teeny boppers who put those two non-talents in there. Fortunately this year they’ve got some guys who can really sing this time around. Remembering what happened with Tamyra, my picks are: Winner: Clay Aiken Runner-Up: JD Adams