# American Idol Results Prediction Game #3 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 7, 2008, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436 "2008-03-07T13:40:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/81 "2008-05-08T22:38:39Z")
After the Top 4 become the Top 3: **Rachael Rage** takes back the top spot with 16 points. **The Unkempt One** and **Hal Briston** share second with 17 points. **Drain Bead** and **The SDMB Mean** remain in fourth with 18 points. Sixth place goes to **Dudley Garrett** and **Sam Stone** with 19 points. **accidentalyuppie** and **Kolak of Twilo** share eighth place with 20 points. **Reloy3** ’s 21 points drops him down to tenth place. **Mahaloth** moves up to eleventh place with 22 points. 23 points puts **Blue Mood** by himself in twelfth place. **Liberal** , **Rachel Christine** and **yellowval** share thirteenth place with 24 points. **Gorgonzola** goes into sixteenth place with 25 points. **gonzoron** and **Pleonast** take 17th place with 26 points. **Biggirl** takes nineteenth place with 29 points. **Sternvogel** holds firm with still brings up the rear with 38 points. Hmm…just realized that I had an error last week when I said **Sternvogel** had 26 points – he actually had 36. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2008, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/82 "2008-05-08T23:05:51Z")
I’ll spoiler this in case anyone wants to stay in the dark… I’ve calculated the most likely finish for the contest, based upon what seems like the most likely _AI_ finish – Syesha 3, Archuletta 2 and Cook 1: The Unkempt One - 21 Hal Briston - 22 Rachael Rage - 22 Kolak of Twilo - 24 Drain Bead - 26 Sam Stone - 26 SDMB Mean - 26 Dudley Garrett - 28 Liberal - 28 Reloy3 - 28 accidentalyuppie - 30 Blue Mood - 32 yellowval - 32 Rachel Christine - 34 Mahaloth - 35 Pleonast - 35 Gorgonzola - 35 Biggirl - 36 gonzoron - 36 Sternvogel - 52 ---
**Author:** ![Rachael\_Rage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71c47a/32.png) [@Rachael\_Rage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachael_Rage)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2008, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/83 "2008-05-09T03:27:07Z")
Who am I? [deep exhale]Oh my gosh…_thank you_. [look like I’m about to cry] 😉 I missed the view up here, love being back. [QUOTE=Hal Briston] I’ve calculated the most likely finish for the contest, based upon what seems like the most likely _AI_ finish – Syesha 3, Archuletta 2 and Cook 1: [/QUOTE] Curse me for dismissing the “emo poseur guy” back in those early days. :smack: Well, much as I’d hate to lose this game, I’d hate it more if Cook didn’t win! ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2008, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/84 "2008-05-09T06:02:22Z")
[QUOTE=Hal Briston] I’ll spoiler this in case anyone wants to stay in the dark… I’ve calculated the most likely finish for the contest, based upon what seems like the most likely _AI_ finish – Syesha 3, Archuletta 2 and Cook 1: The Unkempt One - 21 Hal Briston - 22 Rachael Rage - 22 Kolak of Twilo - 24 Drain Bead - 26 Sam Stone - 26 SDMB Mean - 26 Dudley Garrett - 28 Liberal - 28 Reloy3 - 28 accidentalyuppie - 30 Blue Mood - 32 yellowval - 32 Rachel Christine - 34 Mahaloth - 35 Pleonast - 35 Gorgonzola - 35 Biggirl - 36 gonzoron - 36 Sternvogel - 52 [/QUOTE] You may want to check your math **Hal** , because with that finishing order I get The Unkempt One, Hal Briston, Rachael Rage - tied for first with 22. If it ends up with Syesha 3, Cook 2 and Archuleta 1 then it would be You and Rachael Rage in a tie for 1st with 20 and The Unkempt One and myself tied at 2nd with 22. I’m not going to calculate some crazy ending like Archuleta 3, Cook 2 and Syesha 1. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2008, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/85 "2008-05-15T15:33:05Z")
After the Top Three gets whittled down to the Final Two\*: **Rachael Rage** holds on the top spot with 17 points. **Hal Briston** takes over second with 18 points. **The Unkempt One** and **Kolak of Twilo** take fourth with 20 points. Fifth place goes to **DudleyGarrett** , **Sam Stone** and **The SDMB Mean** with 21 points. 24 points gives **Drain Bead** and **Reloy3** a spot in eighth place. **Liberal** and **Blue Mood** take tenth place with 25 points. **accidental yuppie** and **Rachel Christine** ’s 27 points give them twelfth place. **Gorgonzola** , **Mahaloth** , **Pleonast** and **yellowval** split a four-way tie for seventeenth place with 28 points each. **gonzoron** takes eighteenth place with 32 points. **Biggirl** ’s 33 points gives her nineteenth place. And **Sternvogel** hits the Ultimate Answer with 42 points. \*The chart hasn’t been updated yet, so I’m relying on my math skills to do this. Corrections are sure to follow. ---
**Author:** ![Rachael\_Rage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71c47a/32.png) [@Rachael\_Rage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachael_Rage)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/86 "2008-05-16T00:14:30Z")
[QUOTE=Hal Briston] After the Top Three gets whittled down to the Final Two\*: **Rachael Rage** holds on the top spot with 17 points. [/QUOTE] [happy dance] woo hoo, woo hoo! [/happy dance] 😃 I think this is my last chance to claim **#1** all on my own. No matter which way the finale goes I’m going to end up tying with someone for first or second or whatever. So, I’m gonna gloat for a minute: **I’m #1! I’m #1! I’m #1!** I’d like to thank all the little people… OK, that was fun. I think this is the first time I’ve done this well on any sort of SD game. Or, like, any game at all. Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming. ---
**Author:** ![Rachael\_Rage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71c47a/32.png) [@Rachael\_Rage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachael_Rage)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/87 "2008-05-16T12:30:37Z")
It is worth noting that **Drain Bead** is the only player who correctly picked the top two. Several others had David C. in third place, but _nobody_ picked him to win. ETA: Also, nobody had the top three in their top three. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2008, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/88 "2008-05-16T12:55:33Z")
Ok, next year I’m gonna get it right. That contestant with the unbelieveably smooth tone that who is a shoo-in for the win is _going_ to become mind-numbingly boring by the end, so I’m _not_ picking them to win next time! Melinda, Archie, the lesson has been learned. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/89 "2008-05-22T02:04:02Z")
And we have a three-way tie for first: **Hal Briston** , **Rachael Rage** , and **The Unkempt One**. [See our complete scores.](http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pNVrfrbVAW5SRQi_LlSX7Hg) Thanks everyone for playing! ---
**Author:** ![Rachael\_Rage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71c47a/32.png) [@Rachael\_Rage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachael_Rage)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/90 "2008-05-22T04:22:59Z")
Yayyyy! 😃 Congratulations to my co-firsties: **Hal Briston** and **The Unkempt One** (next time, there shall be only one! bwahaha). And many, MANY thanks to **Hal Briston** for starting a game I could manage to co-win, and to **Pleonast** for the most excellent spreadsheet, which I spent a really embarassing amount of time staring at. Anyone wanna know my strategy? 😉 Yeah, I had one. Shut up. ---
**Author:** ![gonzoron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a6a055/32.png) [@gonzoron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzoron)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2008, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/91 "2008-05-22T12:52:55Z")
[QUOTE=Rachael Rage] Anyone wanna know my strategy? 😉 Yeah, I had one. Shut up. [/QUOTE] Well, let’s hear it! (I sure could use the help. ouch!) ---
**Author:** ![Rachael\_Rage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/71c47a/32.png) [@Rachael\_Rage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachael_Rage)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2008, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436/92 "2008-05-23T01:46:31Z")
[QUOTE=gonzoron] Well, let’s hear it! (I sure could use the help. ouch!) [/QUOTE] First I should say that luck had as much to do with it as any “strategy.” Rather than trying to predict each person’s individual place, I divided the list of 12 into four categories of three each: 1. great 2. ok 3. blah 4. dead weight Then, within each category I tried to figure out who would beat whom. Therefore, I figured even if I didn’t get the exact placements right, as long as I was in the general ballpark, I wouldn’t gain more than 1 or 2 points with any given elimination. There obviously were flaws, most notably that I wasn’t impressed with David C. and figured the public would get sick of this Daughtry retread around the time they got sick of the real Daughtry. Also I failed to predict David H. failing so spectacularly in his top 12 performance, or that Carly’s awesome rocker chick thing was going to be the _same_ rocker chick thing week after week after week. So it’s not much more than guessing, really. I just had a method to my guessing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-idol-results-prediction-game-3/440436.md?page=4)