While it is true that warning the Russians ahead of time was needed to prevent the possible loss of Russian lives and then an even worse reaction from Russia, I do think the relative ineffectiveness of the strike is due to the Russians warning Assad too.
(Cartoon by Mike Luckovich)
IMHO if nothing else is done against Assad this will look more as an effort to wag the dog.
Almost every strike like this for the past 20 years is called wag the dog by somebody. Considering all our allies are cool with it and even Hillary was all for something like this, it’s a pretty silly accusation.
Putin has been involved in influencing and undermining elections, invaded and annexed parts of Ukraine, reportedly expanding Russia’s nuclear capabilities, propping up Assad and actively working against non-ISIS rebels in Syria. He’s generally involved in contributing to as much political instability around the world as he can manage.
He should not be rewarded with removal of sanctions based on his latest escalation of provocation and fuckery.
I would think so, but in this case it was already acknowledged that Russia was warned ahead of time, earlier than congress too it seems.
For all the ones still trying to minimize the Russian connections to Trump and buddies, one should pause and realize that indeed investigating and knowing about those connections has undermined the influence Russia did try to get. While I would wish for Trump and others to be put in Jail for not disclosing those connections I do think that the next best thing is beginning to happen.
Trump is finally getting the notion that looking away from what Putin and other Russians were doing on many fronts, just because they were very helpful in the past to him, is not a good idea.
The strike wasn’t intended to be devastating. It was essentially a warning shot, and one in which our military made real efforts to minimize the loss of life. In that sense, I think it was perfectly effective, so I’m curious why you judge it “ineffective”. What didn’t it do enough of? Not enough dead Syrians / Russians? Too many misses? Should’ve destroyed more of Assad’s air force? Something else?
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I think it’s way to soon to know what positive effect it had, if any. What we know for sure so far is that it’s contributed to a rise in tensions between the US and Russia. Reports say that bombing of Idlib has not ceased, and the airbase will be back to operative status very soon.
In what sense has the US response been effective?
I don’t concur at all.
You’re either ready or your not. If your leader, CEO, coach or business partner is “pretty ready” to do something, it means you’re “pretty ready” not to as well. But I think that was his state of mind. He was kinda sorta ready, but really didn’t want to. And at the slightest push back, but stopped.
Obama (and supporters of his on this action) want to have their cake and eat it to.
Ineffective in the sense that Assad’s air force still used that airfield. And did go to bomb more innocent people in the area where the poison attack took place.
I still remember that in the decades old 6 day war Israel made the airfields in Egypt useless for days, and using less capable than today’s ordnance.
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In what sense has the US response been effective?
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In the sense that it showed that the US would strike at countries that use chemical attacks, and shook up Assad’s (and probably Putin’s) views on what the US would do. It’s already changed the status quo for Russia, who is scrambling to paint the US as the aggressor while being seen to act by moving assets (like the frigate under discussion earlier) and a supposedly beefed up air defense system. Unless Assad is a total idiot he isn’t going to try and use chemical weapons again. Now, whether it will change anything else, THAT has yet to be seen. I think this strike could put the US in a good position to pressure Russia into eventual disassociate with Syria/Assad…it’s certainly hurting them (again) wrt international opinion, where they are seen, once again, as supporting a monster and providing cover and assistance to said monster. Of course, I’m unsure if Trump et al are smart enough or understand enough to actually do anything about this…that will be seen later in the month when Tillerson visits the Russians.
I’m unsure why so many people see this strike as ineffective and/or useless. It’s a huge sea change for the US, and a large change in the status quo. Is it the body count that has folks so ruffled? From what I’ve read, over 20 fighter planes were destroyed, as well as a lot of the bases infrastructure. Assad is unlikely to give two fucks for the lives of his personnel…but he WILL care, quite a bit, about the losses of that equipment. The US can afford to spend 50 times as much wrt a trade in missiles for planes and still come out on top. In addition, this puts Assad on notice…the US will act if certain things happen. That alone will be a shock after we didn’t act in the past. Couple that with the uncertainty of what the US might decide to do next and it’s a huge amount of pressure applied to Assad and the regime. He now has to be feeling a lot more uncertain about things than he was on Tuesday. That alone made the attack worth it, IMHO.
Why is that important? Unless you are advocating that the US stop all Syrian air strikes, which would be a huge ramp up, I don’t see why you think it’s important. Yeah, using the base was a fuck you to the US…but Assad knows now that the US could hit him any time and pretty much anywhere. Like I said, the losses of those planes alone will hurt him enough that he’s unlikely to just shrug it off. Anyone who isn’t a major power losing 20+ fighter jets is not going to just go ‘oh, nothing to see here’…not in private and away from the cameras anyway.
One last thought. Think about how easily the US did this. We didn’t even redeploy forces, didn’t do anything particularly special. A carrot topped idiot picked up a phone, basically, and we launched 60 cruise missiles to attack a base thousands of miles from our shores. And this was the RESTRAINED version. Think about what that really means, then put yourself in Assad’s shoes.
From a personal perspective I agree. I would love to tell the Russians, and especially Putin to go fuck themselves. They have done some pretty bad shit, and should pay. But the reality is that if they could bring Assad to heel, and provide a political solution to the mess by getting him out of there or at least not prop him up, it would be worth it to facilitate that. IF Putin does that, then it would be worth it in the greater scheme of things to relax or remove the sanctions.
We do exactly the same for exactly the same reason with China. They ALSO do some pretty nasty stuff, but the political reality is we have to work with the CCP…if we don’t things would be a lot worse. And, to be frank, the US also does some bad stuff…yet other countries have to work with us. I’m fairly certain that a lot of current world leaders would like nothing more than to tell Trump to go fuck himself…yet they, sadly, have to work with him. I feel their pain.
Unfortunately I do remember reading that Russia was going to replace a lot of that equipment lost, so I do think Assad is shrugging it off.
Oh I think he is concerned, but just a bit. I know about a lot of dictators to tell you that many are deluded on thinking that they are “the chosen one” or special or invulnerable. And as I pointed before, knowing that my enemy did tell the Russians and that then I was warned by them would make me then laugh at Trump.
Mind you, I do think Assad is mistaken and he has another thing coming if what I think is happening and the Bannon/Breitbart pro Russia faction is falling in disgrace in front of the eyes of Trump. But, one of the things I pointed early but CarnalK and others missed is that I put the conditional that Trump should had had a follow up ready and soon, otherwise the missile attack does look like a bad joke. Personally I would had another smaller volley of rockets to disable the airfield for a longer time.
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Unfortunately I do remember reading that Russia was going to replace a lot of that equipment lost, so I do think Assad is shrugging it off.
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Oh, to be sure. But Russia doesn’t have unlimited deep pockets. They are in the midst of their own financial meltdown, and with the sanctions they are hurting. So…I don’t see Assad shrugging it off, nor the Russians. Like I said, losing 20 fighters would hurt us…it’s not something anyone could or would just shrug off as if it were nothing.
It would be hard to convince yourself that you are invulnerable in the often devastating wake of the recent past US (or NATO) actions in the region. The Iraqi’s, Afghani’s and Libyan’s, to name a few, could tell them how invulnerable the leaders are from the US. While those all cost the US in money and prestige and often turned into messes for us, those guys lost it all. That could easily happen to Assad and his merry men as well. He’s got to be thinking that unless he’s a total idiot AND crazy.
I disagree that this is a valid metric to show whether it was successful or not, but we shall see what happens from here. As I’ve said in other threads, I don’t think Trump has any idea of what to do, and has no real formulated plan for dealing with Syria (or much else wrt foreign policy). This is totally counter to what he said while on campaign, and runs against this American First bullshit. We shall see what he does next. Personally, I’m terrified.
And that’s the problem with these types of strikes. If you’re not willing to follow up, someone like Assad can just shrug it off as a bad day. If you do start following it with more strikes, then the next thing you know you’re in over your head just to make a point. (Look what happened in Libya.) Assad has powerful backers in Russia and Iran, so it’s no big deal if we lob a few missiles at one target one day.
Maybe, just maybe, he’ll not use CWs again. But he doesn’t need to use them in the first place, so he’s not giving up anything significant. He can go back to terrorizing his populace in more conventional ways, and no one will raise a finger to stop him.
I’d just as soon we stay out of there completely. It’s too easy to do the wrong thing when you think “something” has to be done, but you’re unwilling and/or unable to go at it full-bore. Damned if you do, and damed if you don’t.
As long as Russia has an interest in maintaining their naval port in Tartus, Putin will continue backing Assad. It’s not because they have a particular love for Assad. It’s because he and his generals are who they have a relationship with. If they could find alternatives, they’d have stood aside and let the Syrian rebels tear the Assad regime apart long ago.
That said, allowing Assad to use sarin gas (they’ve been using chlorine gas more recently with impunity) was a calculated escalation on Putin’s part. Why? Because he wanted to see if: 1) Trump could be provoked, 2) What it would take to provoke him, 3) How Trump would respond when provoked. I have no doubt he was prepared to do more but now he knows. The match is not yet over because I believe Putin will continue to test Trump’s resolve and limits. All this is calculated to bring Trump to the negotiating table to discuss the existing sanctions and their easement. Notice how the negotiations are likely to be about Syria and not Ukraine anymore. Why? Because Trump doesn’t give a shit about Ukraine and not about to insist that Putin end the occupation in order for the sanctions to be removed. But Syria, well now, that’s something that Trump has stepped into. He’ll have to come to the table to negotiate some sort of resolution, else Putin will continue to provoke him. When Trump does, Putin will be happy to give him something in Syria for a removal of existing sanctions. Maybe even Assad on a plate as a teaser for Trump. Though I very much doubt Trump is nearly capable of negotiating such a concession.
That’s my WAG.
I agree, but that is for the long run, in the short run I don’t think so, hence the point that a follow up (in the same airfield or another) should had been considered.
Oh well XT, you disappoint me a bit*, here we should not forget that even when Qaddafi was going to be gunned down he still boasted to his captors that his captors were the ones in trouble. Yes, when things crumble dictators are shown to be mostly crazy or dumb.
Me too XT, me too.
One of those supposed rogue “Inside the White House” Twitter accounts posted on February 1 that World War III was scheduled to begin on April 7.
https://twitter.com/RogueLeaks/status/826961877188149249
The goal wasn’t to stop Assad from bombing Idlib, or prevent the airbase from ever being used again. It was to discourage Assad from using chemical weapons. Increasing tensions with the Russians was deemed an acceptable cost. So far, AFAIK, Assad hasn’t used chemical weapons again, so thus far it’s been effective.
Geez, I leave for a few days and come back to so much hand-wringing. Again, FUCK Assad. But also again, I am confident in Trump’s ability to fuck it up even when he does the right thing. Hillary Clinton says Syria’s air force should be destroyed. Sounds okay to me.