# American Politics After Trump **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 1, 2018, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085 "2018-07-01T03:37:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/41 "2018-07-04T20:36:06Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I guess we can add percentages to the list of things you don’t understand. > > Here’s an [article](https://www.thebalance.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296) that explains it. I know you won’t read it but it has a picture you can look at. Please stop digging. It’s painful to watch. > [@Wesley Clark](#): > > He may have meant deficit, not debt. > > I think the only president that lowered the debt since the 70s was Clinton. > > Under Obama, the deficit went from 1.413 trillion down to 585 billion. Let’s also keep in mind that the deficit of $1.413T in 2009 was mostly due to The Stimulus. The deficit in 2008 was $458B. Still, Obama should get credit for steering the deficits lower and not making things worse. Things could easily have gotten worse with a less competent president in office. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 4, 2018, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/42 "2018-07-04T22:45:41Z")
The US ran trillion dollar deficits for four years, 2009-2012. Then they shrank massively. Now they are set to go over a trillion again. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/43 "2018-07-05T06:28:53Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > … Trump has exploded the deficit back up to a trillion dollars after 8 years of cutting the deficit under Obama. … > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The US ran trillion dollar deficits for four years, 2009-2012. Then they shrank massively. > > Now they are set to go over a trillion again. I think you’re missing an important bit of analysis here. The trajectory that Obama left the country on at the end of his term was not a healthy one, at least when it came to deficits. [Here are the CBO estimates published January 2016](https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51129-2016outlookonecol-2.pdf). Please note the date - this was before “President Trump” was anything more than a laughing matter for most people. If you’ll refer to Table 1-2, on Page 149, you’ll see the CBO’s baseline budget projections. Here’s what they show for the projected deficits: 2016 = $544B 2017 = $561B 2018 = $572B 2019 = $738B 2020 = $810B 2021 = $893B 2022 = $1.044T 2023 = $1.077T 2024 = $1.089T 2025 = $1.226T 2026 = $1.366T The budget deficit was already “set to go over a trillion again” regardless of the outcome of the 2016 election. Obama had left the next president a ticking time bomb. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/44 "2018-07-05T10:15:18Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Still, Obama should get credit for steering the deficits lower and not making things worse. Things could easily have gotten worse with a less competent president in office. Obama’s success with the economy is vastly underappreciated. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/45 "2018-07-05T11:29:04Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Because that’s what the various states agreed to all those years ago. This isn’t really an argument, though. We know it’s something the States agreed years ago. That doesn’t justify why the US should _continue_ to do so. That’s why the Founders ensured there was a means to alter the Constitution. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/46 "2018-07-05T12:20:11Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Obama’s success with the economy is vastly underappreciated. I’ve enjoyed the audacity of all the complaints about how slow his recovery was, without mentioning what it was a recovery _from_, or what resistance he faced from the people responsible for creating it. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/47 "2018-07-05T14:03:56Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > This isn’t really an argument, though. We know it’s something the States agreed years ago. That doesn’t justify why the US should _continue_ to do so. That’s why the Founders ensured there was a means to alter the Constitution. So propose an amendment. We’ll see if your ideas are popular enough to change things. I’ll make a prediction that they are not. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/48 "2018-07-05T14:16:20Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think you’re missing an important bit of analysis here. The trajectory that Obama left the country on at the end of his term was not a healthy one, at least when it came to deficits. [Here are the CBO estimates published January 2016](https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51129-2016outlookonecol-2.pdf). Please note the date - this was before “President Trump” was anything more than a laughing matter for most people. If you’ll refer to Table 1-2, on Page 149, you’ll see the CBO’s baseline budget projections. Here’s what they show for the projected deficits: > > 2016 = $544B > 2017 = $561B > 2018 = $572B > 2019 = $738B > 2020 = $810B > 2021 = $893B > 2022 = $1.044T > 2023 = $1.077T > 2024 = $1.089T > 2025 = $1.226T > 2026 = $1.366T > > The budget deficit was already “set to go over a trillion again” regardless of the outcome of the 2016 election. Obama had left the next president a ticking time bomb. And now the CBO has said the deficits will be even larger. > **[The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651#section2)** > > In CBO’s projections, the economy grows relatively quickly this year and next and then more slowly in the following several years. The federal budget deficit rises substantially, boosting federal debt to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028. Either way, with a democrat as president I’m sure we would’ve had tax hikes on the wealthy, not tax cuts for them. So the deficits would’ve been smaller as they started coming ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/49 "2018-07-05T14:34:33Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > And now the CBO has said the deficits will be even larger. > > [https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651#section2](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651#section2) Yes, I’m sure we could have a fascinating conversation about the economic and legal changes and the effect they’ve had on the CBO’s projections in the last couple of years. That’s beside the point I was making though. You’re trying to blame Trump for our return to trillion-dollar deficits, but that was already “baked in” before President Trump won. Can you acknowledge that fact? > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Either way, with a democrat as president I’m sure we would’ve had tax hikes on the wealthy, not tax cuts for them. So the deficits would’ve been smaller as they started coming You’re saying Hillary woukd have raised taxes? ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2018, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085/50 "2018-07-05T15:45:26Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I think you’re missing an important bit of analysis here. The trajectory that Obama left the country on at the end of his term was not a healthy one, at least when it came to deficits. [Here are the CBO estimates published January 2016](https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51129-2016outlookonecol-2.pdf). Please note the date - this was before “President Trump” was anything more than a laughing matter for most people. If you’ll refer to Table 1-2, on Page 149, you’ll see the CBO’s baseline budget projections. Here’s what they show for the projected deficits: > > 2016 = $544B > 2017 = $561B > 2018 = $572B > 2019 = $738B > 2020 = $810B > 2021 = $893B > 2022 = $1.044T > 2023 = $1.077T > 2024 = $1.089T > 2025 = $1.226T > 2026 = $1.366T > > The budget deficit was already “set to go over a trillion again” regardless of the outcome of the 2016 election. Obama had left the next president a ticking time bomb. Okay, but let’s compare the old CBO predictions with those since Trump has taken office and Republican fiscal policy has bloomed. 2018 $965B ($393B worse than projected under Obama) 2019 $969B ($231B worse than projected under Obama) 2020 $1,056B ($246B worse than projected under Obama, and a $1 Trillion deficit two years earlier than Obama) 2021 $1,178B ($285B worse than projected under Obama) 2022 $1,139B ($95B worse than projected under Obama) 2023 $1,076B ($1B better than projected under Obama. Yay?) 2024 $1,144B ($55B worse than projected under Obama) 2025 $1,076B ($150B better than projected under Obama) 2026 $1,026B ($340B better than projected under Obama) All up, Trump is $814 billion in the hole compared to the Obama-era projections over the projection window. If you account for the time value of money,\* his performance is worse since the explodes the deficit soon in order to achieve hypothetically smaller deficits in the future. Trump boosters should not brag about the size of his fiscal policies. - Applying a 2.75% discount rate (roughly the rate on 30-year Treasury bonds today) to all the deficit projections comes up with a difference in present value of the deficits of $847 billion over the prediction window). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/american-politics-after-trump/817085.md?page=2)