# Americas: Census at contact myth **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 14, 2011, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309 "2011-04-14T00:45:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/201 "2011-04-18T00:58:16Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > You have been repeatedly told that your insulting behavior is inappropriate. Direct personal insults are a direct violation of the rules. > > You Warned to stop this behavior. > > [/Moderating] I actually, only want to leave the thread! I have shown my arguments, my ideas and sources. And I have learned nothing in return. It doesn’t make sense to continue. Mod, please close this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Bartman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/779978/32.png) [@Bartman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bartman)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/202 "2011-04-18T02:53:20Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > I actually, only want to leave the thread! > > I have shown my arguments, my ideas and sources. > > And I have learned nothing in return. It doesn’t make sense to continue. > > Mod, please close this thread. So leave. No one is forcing you to post in this thread. I’m not going to touch your second line. But it is unfortunate that you learned nothing in this thread. I learned several things from the other posters and have now added several new books to my reading list. And I don’t think the thread needs to be closed. There is still a chance that a useful discussion can take place. And if it doesn’t it’ll die all on its own pretty quickly. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/203 "2011-04-18T05:28:55Z")
I’m curious. Let’s say for the sake of argument that the population was 10 to 20 million. What I want to know is “so what”? Why should we care, one way or the other? I have no idea what the various scholarly factions are saying, so I’m prepared to accept these figures as provisionally true. I want to know what difference it makes in looking at history. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/204 "2011-04-18T07:39:39Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > I actually, only want to leave the thread! I’ve lost count, is this the fourth or fifth time you’ve said you were leaving? ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/205 "2011-04-18T08:06:36Z")
So, just so we keep this thread going, let’s all take our own (inexpert) stab at assigning populations to the pre-Columbian Americas, shall we? ME, I’m firmly on the higher High Count side - I have been ever since I found out the evidence for the full extent of the Mississipian & Pueblo _civilizations_ and N-Eastern Woodlands Agriculturalist, and PNW _cultures_ (note italicized technical terms). So 100 million sounds about right to me. _Anything below 50 million_ sounds all kinds of wrong given what we know about all these cultures. ---
**Author:** ![Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b38774/32.png) [@Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Attack_from_the_3rd_dimension)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/206 "2011-04-18T11:02:47Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > Historian **David Henige** has argued that many population figures are the result of **arbitrary formulas selectively applied to numbers from unreliable historical sources**. He believes this is a weakness unrecognized by several contributors to the field, and insists **there is not sufficient evidence to produce population numbers** that have any real meaning. He characterizes the modern trend of high estimates as “ **pseudo-scientific number-crunching**.” Henige does not advocate a low population estimate, but argues that the scanty and **unreliable nature of the evidence renders broad estimates inevitably suspect** , saying “high counters” (as he calls them) have been particularly flagrant in their misuse of sources.Many population studies acknowledge the inherent difficulties in producing reliable statistics, given the scarcity of hard data. > \*\* This looks like a quote. Where is it from? > [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > I’m curious. Let’s say for the sake of argument that the population was 10 to 20 million. What I want to know is “so what”? Why should we care, one way or the other? I have no idea what the various scholarly factions are saying, so I’m prepared to accept these figures as provisionally true. I want to know what difference it makes in looking at history. Yup. He’s got an axe to grind, but we don’t know why. > [@pinguin](#): > > I actually, only want to leave the thread! > > I have shown my arguments, my ideas and sources. > > And I have learned nothing in return. It doesn’t make sense to continue. > > Mod, please close this thread. Before you go, I wanted to mention that before you started posting, I’d not thought much about this issue, so thanks for that. On the down side, I think your thread made more gains for the high estimate side than for a low estimate, so there’s that as well. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/207 "2011-04-18T12:11:15Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > I asked a question, started a thread, and I found out a circus. Rather you made one. > [@](#): > > I am not interested in rethorical discussions. Oddly enough, that seems exactly to be what you’re interested in. > [@](#): > > The point is, I didn’t get any information in here, and even more. Instead of saving work, I was asked to start my own research. You did, which you then hand-waved away because it did not fit your own pre-conceptions. You were simply asked to logically argue your position (actually even show some basic logic in it), supported by actual proper sourcing, rather than an incoherent stream of ad hominems against sources you did not like and fairly leaping around in moving goal posts. ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/208 "2011-04-18T13:12:25Z")
> [@Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](#): > > Before you go, I wanted to mention that before you started posting, I’d not thought much about this issue, so thanks for that. On the down side, I think your thread made more gains for the high estimate side than for a low estimate, so there’s that as well. Thanks to you. The idea was just to discuss the figures. I believe in the low estimations simply because it makes more sense to me, given the historical records I know, but I am not going to force anyone to believe on it. In fact, my only point is that there isn’t any certainty about the actual size of the local population at contact. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/209 "2011-04-18T13:13:51Z")
If all you’re doing is trying to validate your preconceived ideas (which is clearly what you;'re doing), you’re wasting your time here. ---
**Author:** ![Tristan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tristan/32/18058_2.png) [@Tristan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tristan)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/210 "2011-04-18T14:20:02Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > Thanks to you. The idea was just to discuss the figures. I believe in the low estimations simply because it makes more sense to me, given the historical records I know, but I am not going to force anyone to believe on it. In fact, my only point is that there isn’t any certainty about the actual size of the local population at contact. Ok, I’m gonna try to start from the beginning here. I am not a native to central or south america, and my knowledge of the history of those regions is not great. May I ask, what is it in the modern nation and your knowledge of the history of the regions that makes you believe that the population numbers are lower than is generally accepted? ---
**Author:** ![Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b38774/32.png) [@Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Attack_from_the_3rd_dimension)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/211 "2011-04-18T14:27:27Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > Thanks to you. The idea was just to discuss the figures. I believe in the low estimations simply because it makes more sense to me, given the historical records I know, but I am not going to force anyone to believe on it. In fact, my only point is that there isn’t any certainty about the actual size of the local population at contact. You’re welcome. ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/212 "2011-04-18T15:35:41Z")
> [@Tristan](#): > > May I ask, what is it in the modern nation and your knowledge of the history of the regions that makes you believe that the population numbers are lower than is generally accepted? Generally accepted? As I said before, there is no generally accepted figure. I doubt about those large figures simply because I know how few people lived in certain regions of South America. Did you know the population of Southern Patagonia when the Europeans settlers arrived was 6.000 people :eek: Yes, I am not fooling around. It was only 6.000 people. Easter Island was even smaller. There were about 500 people only when it was incorporated to Chile. Our native population on the whole country was around 200.000 when the conquerors arrived, and we were a populous country that time. Those figures that put the Inca Empire in 15 millions or more doesn’t fit the reality. Our region didn’t even had that number at the beginning of the 20th century! Even today, that would be about the current population of my country. A figure of 2 millions would be a lot more rational. Incas never had those numbers of people. With respect to Amazonians, they were a people with lot less density, as it is remembered even from the times of the Inca empire. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/213 "2011-04-18T15:41:58Z")
1. How do you _know_ any of the things you state as fact? Aren’t they all just figures arrived at by number-crunching pseudo-scientists? 2. You need to show your work. You have not made the necessary connections that lead from a premise like this: > [@](#): > > Did you know the population of Southern Patagonia when the Europeans settlers arrived was 6.000 people > Yes, I am not fooling around. It was only 6.000 people. Easter Island was even smaller. There were about 500 people only when it was incorporated to Chile. > Our native population on the whole country was around 200.000 when the conquerors arrived, and we were a populous country that time. To a conclusion like this: > [@](#): > > Those figures that put the Inca Empire in 15 millions or more doesn’t fit the reality. Our region didn’t even had that number at the beginning of the 20th century! Even today, that would be about the current population of my country. A figure of 2 millions would be a lot more rational. I bet the number-crunching pseudoscientists have justified their lines of reasoning far better than you have here. ---
**Author:** ![Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b38774/32.png) [@Attack\_from\_the\_3rd\_dimension](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Attack_from_the_3rd_dimension)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/214 "2011-04-18T16:16:15Z")
> [@pinguin](#): > > Generally accepted? As I said before, there is no generally accepted figure. > > I doubt about those large figures simply because I know how few people lived in certain regions of South America. Did you know the population of Southern Patagonia when the Europeans settlers arrived was 6.000 people :eek: > Yes, I am not fooling around. It was only 6.000 people. Easter Island was even smaller. There were about 500 people only when it was incorporated to Chile. > Our native population on the whole country was around 200.000 when the conquerors arrived, and we were a populous country that time. Okay, just for fun, I’ll try this time. I’m not particularly invested in pre-contact populations, however, I note that the [easily accessed Wikipedia article](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_island#History) gives an estimate by [Jakob Roggeveen](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Roggeveen) of 3000, although since his men were shooting at them, this may be an underestimate. Now, by the standards of the dope, or of academic scholarship, this is pretty shoddy work - I’ve referenced an online encyclopedia. Would you be so kind as to come up with at least this minimum this level of citation for your various assertions? Just for starters. And: So, 3000 or more on Easter Island at contact, 500 (using your estimate) at incorporation with Chile. Hm, so a massive decrease in the number of people in the interval after European contact and documented slave raids, tuberculosis and smallpox. Not sure I’m seeing the value of this example for your point. Plus: Southern Patagonia? Seriously? I’ve been there, it’s pretty inhospitable. If you’re basing your back-of-the-envelope calculations on southern Patagonia, no wonder you’ve got low estimates. ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/215 "2011-04-18T18:30:14Z")
Yes, that’s a good experiment. Easter Island. There is a piece of information you don’t know. At contact perhaps there were 3000, but it is likely the figure is lower. You must remember that contact happened after the ecological disaster of Easter Island, that forced a drastic population decline by hunger, before the Europeans arrived. But now the piece you are missing. The most dramatic population decline after contact was because SLAVE RAIDS from Peru. a thousand or more natives were hijacked from the island to never return. Yes, there were some contagious diseases as well, but blaming contagious diseases for the decline is just excusing Peruvians for the crime they comitted on Easter Island. In fact, after the raids, the reading of Rongo Rongo tablets was lost forever, among many other cultural things! Southern Patagonia, the channels and the Land of Fire has a few thousand natives when the European settlers came to the region. It wasn’t very populated at all. The pampas had more people, but not much either. Not in the scale some people imagine, anyways. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/216 "2011-04-18T18:36:26Z")
And you conducted these censuses personally, right? ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/217 "2011-04-18T18:40:31Z")
I have pretty good local antropological information. Some that is not even published in English. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/218 "2011-04-18T18:44:31Z")
Oh, this is information not even available to the world’s anthropologists? Why don’t you write about them? You might win a Nobel prize. ---
**Author:** ![pinguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ac8455/32.png) [@pinguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pinguin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/219 "2011-04-18T18:49:23Z")
Why don’t you come here, intead, to read our books? Perhaps you learn something. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309/220 "2011-04-18T18:53:11Z")
Why don’t you pay my way? Maybe I will. Then again, I’m not the one claiming knowledge superior to that of scholars in the field. Maybe you should offer to pay their expenses to come down and see exactly how they’re getting everything wrong. But somehow I can’t see your persuading them to make a trip. After all this, I still don’t see a cogent argument regarding why we should take your word over any of the “number-crunching pseudoscientists” you’ve been doing down. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/americas-census-at-contact-myth/578309.md?page=12)