# An Estimated 600K Iraqis Have Died in the War **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 11, 2006, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034 "2006-10-11T10:38:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/41 "2006-10-11T23:28:28Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] I agree with you in principle, and I thought the invasion was a bad idea before anybody died. However, if the death toll over there is six or 15 or 20 times what we’ve been told, I’d say that’s pretty significant. [/QUOTE] Well, you yourself pointed out one problem in post #13. To the extent that people argue about the validity of the numbers, then we’re missing the real issue (why did we get into this war), and there seem to be a lot of questions about this type of analysis (per the CNN story linked to above). To the extent that it does get people to discuss why we got into this war, then I’m all for it. If it were me, I’d just say that estimates vary between 50k and 500k. We really don’t know, but either number is too high. Way too high. But then it comes down to whether you think the war was good policy. If you did, then maybe the number isn’t too high. If it was bad policy, which I think it was, then any number is too high. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/42 "2006-10-11T23:41:14Z")
I liked the first one better. “Revolting piece of putrid flesh” has a certain _je ne sais quoi_ that “scumbag” lacks. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/43 "2006-10-11T23:46:32Z")
Grrrr. Dangit, **Mace**! Git out th’ way! ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/44 "2006-10-11T23:47:56Z")
[QUOTE=kaylasdad99] I liked the first one better. “Revolting piece of putrid flesh” has a certain _je ne sais quoi_ that “scumbag” lacks. [/QUOTE] Ditto. ---
**Author:** ![Triskadecamus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b19c9b/32.png) [@Triskadecamus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Triskadecamus)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2006, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/45 "2006-10-11T23:53:11Z")
See? Yet another way in which our current administration is not at all like the Nazi Regime in World War II. The Nazis kept much better records. Tris ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/46 "2006-10-12T00:07:38Z")
Hey, **Tris** , we’re getting together a charter bus to Hell over [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=391675). You want us to save you a seat? ---
**Author:** ![Clothahump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@Clothahump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clothahump)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/47 "2006-10-12T00:14:12Z")
> [@](#): > > An Estimated 600K Iraqis Have Died in the War How many of those have been killed by their own people through terrorist acts, such as car bombs, vs. being killed by US forces? ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/48 "2006-10-12T00:15:35Z")
Didn’t they try to shift blame in the Foley thing too by whining about the timing of the revelation? Boy, that’s mighty pathetic when your best defense is complaining about when you get caught. ---
**Author:** ![Giraffe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giraffe/32/129_2.png) [@Giraffe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giraffe)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/49 "2006-10-12T00:21:28Z")
[QUOTE=Clothahump] How many of those have been killed by their own people through terrorist acts, such as car bombs, vs. being killed by US forces? [/QUOTE] **Zoe** ’s post above says the study cites a figure of roughly 30% being directly due to coalition forces, vs. terrorist or sectarian violence. Since I don’t in any way believe our troops are driving around indiscriminately killing people, in some sense the breakdown of who killed how many isn’t as important to me as the total. If you start a bunch of fires that get out of hand and cause a massive forest fire, your initial fuckup caused all the deaths even if you only directly burned down three buildings yourself. ---
**Author:** ![Triskadecamus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b19c9b/32.png) [@Triskadecamus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Triskadecamus)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/50 "2006-10-12T00:27:09Z")
[QUOTE=Clothahump] How many of those have been killed by their own people through terrorist acts, such as car bombs, vs. being killed by US forces? [/QUOTE] Should we add in the ones killed by Iraqis on behalf of US forces? What about the Pro US Iraqi forces killed by insurgents? Which tally do you want them in? I mean ten thousand dead bodies here, ten thousand dead bodies there, after a while you’re talkin’ a big heap of dead bodies! We want George II to get credit for all the bodies that should be tallied up on his list! When the glorious tale of America’s Righteous War Heroes of the Grand War in Iraq, version 2.0 is celebrated in the future, we want full credit for great things to be given. Shouldn’t we add in at least some of the bodies from Afghanistan? I mean they are part of the entire Holy War on Terror, right? Tris ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/51 "2006-10-12T01:04:35Z")
The only thing that pushes my skeptical buttons is the sheer _enormity_ Twice or even three times wrong, well, fog of war and all that. But an order of magnitude? Times two? Boggle. The same issues apply to questions of methadology and reliability, which I will not pretend to understand. (I tried to read a book on statistical analyses once and damn near slipped into a coma.) I’m going to have to assume that the authors of the studies are mathematically sophisticated enough not to misplace a decimal place. Kinda thing could really poochfuck your academic career. So what’s left? A campaign of deceit on the part of the respondents? Seems like that could only mean that they are lying because they hate us, which might be good news humanity wise, but bad scoobies geo-political wise. And if there are methodology flaws, is there any chance that such a flaw could be an order of magnitude? Math moron that I am, I doubt I could do it myself, never mind fellows who have some smattering of aptitude. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/52 "2006-10-12T01:38:56Z")
A while ago, I was feeling some concern for titling one of my threads as: [The Final Solution for Iraq is the same as for El Salvador.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=295963) Bush continues talking like we are in WWII and he does not bother to tell his base that they need to sacrifice too (no taxes to beat the axis). Bush himself godwinized the discussion on Iraq when he implies that the people who opposes him on the Iraq war would not have sacrificed to defeat the Nazis. Anyhow, regarding the OP I mentioned on that thread this: > [@](#): > > In El Salvador, a country of 5 million, 75,000 had to die to prove a rotten point. If Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush think it is a good idea to apply an El Salvador solutionTM to Iraq we will have to accept that this is coming in the future: > > The population of Iraq is about 22 million, if we apply the El Salvador Solution[sup]TM[/sup] we are looking at 330,000 people dead before we are finished with Iraq. > > Mind you, the numbers mentioned here are the numbers of people that while opposed to the government, did not grab weapons to oppose it; at best, for the rotten status quo, they could have been sympathizers of the revels; and even then, that was in no way a reason why to kill them. > > If we apply the El Salvador solution[sup]TM[/sup] to Iraq, the picture of displaced people is frightening: > > [http://www.icomm.ca/carecen/page86.html](http://www.icomm.ca/carecen/page86.html) > > > [@](#): > > > > By 1983 the number of internally displaced persons in El Salvador had grown to 468,000, nearly ten percent of the country’s population. [AW ESOV page 29] Nearly a quarter of a million Salvadorans had sought refuge elsewhere in Central America or in Mexico by 1984 and approximately one-half million Salvadorans were living in the U.S. [AW ESOV page 31] Approximately one-quarter of the population was internally displaced or had left the country by 1984. [Aw ESOV page 32] > > If you keep counting, that applied to Iraq, means that about 2 million people will become refugees in Iraq and/or will leave Iraq! That number, 330,000, was my estimate based on the ratio of people killed in El Salvador, since the administration clearly is applying the “El Salvador option” in Iraq, the result was grimly expected. I just did not expect it was going to be much worse. And this is only half over if \*\*Squink \*\* is correct. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/53 "2006-10-12T02:35:00Z")
What? 600,000 people have died in Iraq since the war ? Whats that , about 200,000 per year? Well that appears to be a slight decline in the Iraqi death rate since the days before the US invasion. During the first 6 years of the Clinton adminisration, 1.4 million Iraqis died That included 560,000 children under the age of 5. See [http://www.workers.org/archives/1997/eye\_iraq.html](http://www.workers.org/archives/1997/eye_iraq.html) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/54 "2006-10-12T02:47:46Z")
[QUOTE=The Flying Dutchman] What? 600,000 people have died in Iraq since the war ? Whats that , about 200,000 per year? Well that appears to be a slight decline in the Iraqi death rate since the days before the US invasion. During the first 6 years of the Clinton adminisration, 1.4 million Iraqis died That included 560,000 children under the age of 5. See [http://www.workers.org/archives/1997/eye\_iraq.html](http://www.workers.org/archives/1997/eye_iraq.html) [/QUOTE] :rolleyes: From the report quoted in the OP: > [@](#): > > A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that\*\* 655,000 more\*\* people have died in Iraq since coalition forces arrived in March 2003 **than would have died if the invasion had not occurred**. Incidentally, because of the deterioration of the health care system in Iraq, I saw reports of medical people saying the number of people dying for health reasons alone is worse now than before the war. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/55 "2006-10-12T02:51:43Z")
> [@The Flying Dutchman](#): > > During the first 6 years of the Clinton adminisration, 1.4 million Iraqis died That included 560,000 children under the age of 5. **Dutch** , you lovable goof, according to your cite that estimate covered the 6.5 years **between March 1991 and November 1997** , which included the immediate aftermath of the first Gulf War and the subsequent airstrikes. The Clinton administration began in January 1993, nearly two years after the start of that period. Moreover, since we’re chewing over methodology issues, it’s worth pointing out that the “half-million kids killed by sanctions” figure has been seriously disputed. A 2001 [article](http://www.thenation.com/doc/20011203/cortright) in _The Nation_, no fan of US policy regarding Iraq, had this to say: > [@](#): > > A January 1996 letter to The Lancet found inconsistencies in the mortality figures. A follow-up study in 1996, using the same methodology, found much lower rates of child mortality. In October 1997 the authors of the initial letter wrote again to The Lancet, this time reporting that mortality rates in the follow-up study were “several-fold lower than the estimate for 1995–for unknown reasons.” While the initial report of more than 567,000 deaths attracted major news coverage, the subsequent disavowal of those numbers passed unnoticed in the press. > The two most reliable scientific studies on sanctions in Iraq are the 1999 report “Morbidity and Mortality Among Iraqi Children,” by Columbia University’s Richard Garfield, and “Sanctions and Childhood Mortality in Iraq,” a May 2000 article by Mohamed Ali and Iqbal Shah in The Lancet. Garfield, an expert on the public-health impact of sanctions, conducted a comparative analysis of the more than two dozen major studies that have analyzed malnutrition and mortality figures in Iraq during the past decade. He estimated the most likely number of excess deaths among children under five years of age from 1990 through March 1998 to be 227,000. Garfield’s analysis showed child mortality rates double those of the previous decade. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/56 "2006-10-12T02:54:54Z")
Please guys, I wasn’t being serious. I don’t trust any of these numbers when it comes to Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/57 "2006-10-12T02:58:41Z")
Oh. You’re too subtle for us, _schat_. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/58 "2006-10-12T04:35:28Z")
[QUOTE=The Flying Dutchman] Please guys, I wasn’t being serious. I don’t trust any of these numbers when it comes to Iraq. [/QUOTE] Translation: Shit, you made me look like an idiot. Maybe I can pass it off as a whoosh? Yeh, that’s the ticket! ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/59 "2006-10-12T05:44:06Z")
[QUOTE=Bippy the Beardless] Yes but the report also stated that the rate of non-violent deaths hadn’t increased significantly. I do think the report’s sample size was a bit small though. [/QUOTE] Actually, if you’ve studied Sampling Theory, the size is fine. (It is always surprising what a small sample works.) The trick is to avoid bias in your sample. The thing that impressed me about the study, from the report in the Times, is how they tried to avoid Baghdad bias - ie counting the easy to reach casualties near the reporters and the green zone. They report that the casualty rate is actually higher in some provinces outside. Counting by media report is useless - what media is out there, and if the insurgents have a strong presence in a town, what paper is going to report who they blew up? IIRC, the study indicated that the percentage of deaths from Coalition forces has been going down, but I don’t know if that is from fewer killings by them or from more by the insurgents (or both.) ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2006, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/60 "2006-10-12T06:11:18Z")
[QUOTE=Voyager] Actually, if you’ve studied Sampling Theory, the size is fine. (It is always surprising what a small sample works.) [/QUOTE] I took a Statistics class in college (it was a requirement for all journalism majors; laugh about that if you want), but I don’t remember a lot of it. How confident are they, statistically, with the sample they have? [Here is the study itself (PDF).](http://www.thelancet.com/webfiles/images/journals/lancet/s0140673606694919.pdf) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034.md?page=4)