# An Estimated 600K Iraqis Have Died in the War **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 11, 2006, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034 "2006-10-11T10:38:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/121 "2006-10-14T08:47:16Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Thanks, I think so as well, had a fantastic childhood there. Matter of fact I’m supposed to go back next week as my sister keeps an apartment in the city (inherited, I gave her my half in exchange for other property here. I could shoot myself after seeing how RE went up in Spain since) and they are doing work on it. Needs to be checked on. [/QUOTE] Say, **Red** , since you’re going back to Spain, would you mind doing me a favor? Rumor has it that one of the Tucker’s has made it’s way to Spain, but nobody knows for sure. Now I realize that you’ll probably **not** know anybody who might have information on it, but if you stumble across something like in a newspaper or a magazine, or whatever, wouldja be kind enough to let me know? Heck, even information on sophisticated car restoration shops in the country would be helpful, since the car was pretty much a basket case the last time anyone saw it, so presumably the new owner’s going to want to get it restored. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/122 "2006-10-14T09:59:08Z")
[QUOTE=Triskadecamus] I propose to do the thing we have not done. Take responsibility for the insanity of letting those in power remain in power in my country. If anyone now holds office, their actions, or lack of effective action is reason enough to vote them out of office. Change the government, change the parties, change it all. It cannot be worse than it has been. Our Constitution stands smoldering, the Bill of Rights is an open joke to those now in power. Justice stands bleeding, over Liberty, slain. And we, the American citizens are the authors of every single bit of it. Tris [/QUOTE] I don’t understand what that means in terms of things you expect real people to do. Based on what you said, what happend tomorrow? For example. how do we go about changing the government? Should we invade again? ---
**Author:** ![Triskadecamus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b19c9b/32.png) [@Triskadecamus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Triskadecamus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/123 "2006-10-14T16:00:45Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] I don’t understand what that means in terms of things you expect real people to do. Based on what you said, what happend tomorrow? For example. how do we go about changing the government? Should we invade again? [/QUOTE] We, the American people should disabuse ourselves of the notion that we can tell other nations how to conduct the task of governing people with justice, and honor. We should, instead concentrate on the task of governing ourselves in that manner. Our congress considers itself above the law, our president considers any who disagree with him to be enemies, and our judges are the leashed dogs of the party in power. We care more about who is going to win the next American Idol competition than we do about our government legislating away our freedoms, and engaging in wars around the world for partisan gain. Get out of Iraq. Get out of Afghanistan. Fight terror by not being terrorized. And vote against anyone who currently holds elective office. They are either dedicated to the current power madness, or ineffective against it. There is no reason why any country should take governing advice from the nation that holds more of its citizens prisoner than any other “free world” democracy. We are the leaders of the world, to the lasting sorrow of the people who live in it. To the rest of the world I beg you, Don’t follow us. Invite us out of your lives. Let us build our wall around the country. Perhaps that will force us to clean our own house. Tris ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/124 "2006-10-14T16:20:04Z")
Tuckefan, I’ve managed to postpone the trip till the end of the month. Simply too much on my plate at the moment. But sure, once I get there, I’l make some calls and purchase some specialty mags, ect. I’d be a pleasure to help you find your trreasure 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/125 "2006-10-14T16:24:46Z")
**Trisk** , Wish I could come up with more deserving adjetives, but my brain’s stuck on first gear at the moment. Just thought I’d tell you those two are some kick-ass posts. I pretty much said the same thing upthread – only not as well. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Lissa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lissa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lissa)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/126 "2006-10-14T17:06:37Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] SNIP I’m afraid that even if the Dems win big in November that they will be unable to force Bush to change his policies. Even if Bush took the tiny, tiny step of announcing a timetable for withdrawl, I think the payback in increased Iraqi support would be enormous. [/QUOTE] Good points, but here is the worst part. Is withdrawal the answer now? We have taken a developing nation and thrust it into civil war, destroyed the centralized military and political structures, the economic infrastructure and raised religious tensions to record highs. This is the worst fact the American people have to face. If we just cut and run, to prove that Bush was wrong, then I think maybe we are making the same exact kind of mistake Bush made in the first place. Sadly, as opinion polls have shifted, the same ignorant, mindless fucking drones that call themselves “middle america” who supported Bush in his policies because of fear, are now shifting to call for the withdrawal because of “concern for AMERICAN lives”. They could not give one fuck for the Iraqi’s. The same people who care about the Iraqi people AND American lives have held the course since day one. These new hop-along cassidy’s in the U.S., who now want to “flip-flop” on their international policy sicken me. These midnless fucking drones allowed our retarded leader to follow a policy of international blundering and now, they just want to cut and run. Fuck, what HAVE we done?! I know we are just going to cut and run. The American people are shortminded, self-interested cowards and the actions of this prsident have insured the creation of 2-3 more generations of terrorists in the region. They have also insured that a power gulf will exist in Iraq that will costs millions of lives before it is resolved. So I say to all the people who have shifted their views on this war “Too little, too late baby”. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/127 "2006-10-14T17:41:57Z")
[QUOTE=Lissa] This is the worst fact the American people have to face. If we just cut and run, to prove that Bush was wrong, then I think maybe we are making the same exact kind of mistake Bush made in the first place. [/QUOTE] Events in Iraq have already done an adequate job of proving Bush wrong. If we choose to stay now, we’ll be forced to choose a side in their civil war. I’ve little doubt that _whichever_ side we choose will end up being the loser, in part simply because _we_ chose. The Iraqi’s don’t like us, and don’t want us there making choices _for_ them. That severely limits our ability to move things in any positive direction. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/128 "2006-10-14T20:06:33Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Tuckefan, I’ve managed to postpone the trip till the end of the month. Simply too much on my plate at the moment. But sure, once I get there, I’l make some calls and purchase some specialty mags, ect. I’d be a pleasure to help you find your trreasure 😉 [/QUOTE] Thanks. I and everyone else in the blub, owe ya one. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2006, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/129 "2006-10-14T21:26:29Z")
Lotsa blood on our hands. How much ? What are the exact numbers? Who cares,we shame our country more everyday. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2006, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/130 "2006-10-15T03:18:11Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Nothing useful? Surely you exagerate. Surely you grossly exagerate. So, here’s a question. Don’t you think that if we pulled out all our troops, Iraq would errupt into a full blown civil war with massive casualties-- ie, people dying in pitched battles, not just random car bombings and the like. If we pulled our guys out, and the killing increased, would you also say we “killed” all the people who would die? If so, can how can you justify backing such a plan? [/QUOTE] Sorry for not responding earlier - I was traveling yesterday. Actually, the something useful we could have done was to either not invade or provide enough troops to do the job right. As I said in the thread about suggestions on Iraq, we should restore the infrastructure so that the average person at least gets some benefit from our invasion - not just no electricity, little water, no job, and the chance of being killed. The way we’re doing it now, the war will happen no matter how long we wait, and will probably be worse the longer we wait. Given that Bush refuses to face reality and really try to fix the problem, I’d think a phased withdrawal would be better than the status quo - but not the best solution at all. When he fires Rumsfeld, I’ll reconsider. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2006, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/131 "2006-10-15T03:20:18Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23] That was also me. My question is just about confidence: are they saying “we are 95 percent certain that it’s between 420,000 and 790,000,” or “we are 100 percent certain,” or what figure exactly? I could swear I remember that there was an equation to calculate that. [/QUOTE] It was 95% certain, which is the standard figure. No one ever give 100% certainty - that’s an absurdity. I read a column today by someone in the WaPost that got the statistics amazingly right - a much better job than I’ve seen from anyone except someone who is trained, like Krugman. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2006, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/132 "2006-10-15T03:22:04Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Me, too. But I’m specifically asking that of **Voyager** , and (IIRC) he does want us out now. I don’t see how someone can say we’re directly responible for all the deaths there now and then say we need to get out right away. In my mind, that will only exacerbate the death toll. [/QUOTE] You remember incorrectly. I’ve never said we should leave right now. See post above. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2006, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/133 "2006-10-15T03:27:35Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] I think if we got out, one of two things would happen: a) the nation falls into a long and bloody civil war and many more thousands die b) some Iraqi faction gets the upper hand and establishes a despotic government and eventually the killings stop [/QUOTE] More likely a followed by b. You don’t think they’ll come out of a civil war with a democracy, do you? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2006, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/134 "2006-10-15T03:48:54Z")
We may very quickly find ourselves gazing in nostalgia on the optimism of “phased withdraw”. In a ghastly way, we are lucky that they are so absorbed in murdering each other, out troops get less attention that way. But the longer we stay, the more likely that we will be forced to choose a side, either tacitly or officially. We claim we are committed to a federal democracy, which implies, whether we like it or not, Shia domination of the government. And if that Shia dominated government, all sovereign and everything, decides that our presense impedes the perfection and purification of Iraq, they have every right to tell us to ship out. If we align with the Sunni againt the Shia, we will nominate and elect ourselves the Protector of the Sunni, we will be sending our best and brightest to die for them. Or, we could impose order and peace by sheer brutality, aligning with neither, but forcing a solution (which will almost certainly dissolve the moment we are not at hand.) The costliest of all, since we will have no native allies except the buzzards. It is a wretched choice, but there is no other. Out now. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2006, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/135 "2006-10-15T05:13:06Z")
[QUOTE=Voyager] It was 95% certain, which is the standard figure. No one ever give 100% certainty - that’s an absurdity. [/QUOTE] Thanks very much. ---
**Author:** ![Muffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muffin/32/4341_2.png) [@Muffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muffin)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2006, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/136 "2006-10-16T02:05:49Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] So, what should we do now-- withdraw or put in more troops? And what will happen to the death rate if we do what you propose? [/QUOTE] There is a civil war. The odds of the USA being able to hold Iraq together are slim to none. The USA should work toward partitioning Iraq,and devote a very significant portion of the USA’s GNP to development aid in Iraq. Bush and his pals should be tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity. None of the above would come close to solving the problem, but the situation would be improved and the death rate lessened. It’s sad to see the USA go off the ethical deep end as a rogue nation. ---
**Author:** ![DirkGntly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d9b06d/32.png) [@DirkGntly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DirkGntly)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2006, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/137 "2006-10-16T23:20:18Z")
Check this out: [http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php](http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php) This is from an anti-war site, so I was surprised to find this, but I tend to agree with it’s distrust of the Lancet’s findings, for the same reasons they have… ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2006, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/138 "2006-10-16T23:30:16Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] But the longer we stay, the more likely that we will be forced to choose a side, either tacitly or officially. [/quote] Aren’t we seen as doing that already, and have been right from the start? Notice that the attacks on us are mostly, it seems, from Sunnis. > [@](#): > > We claim we are committed to a federal democracy, which implies, whether we like it or not, Shia domination of the government. Only if there’s just one government. That hasn’t looked like an option for a long time - even the sham constitution provides for partition, and that is becoming the reality even more every day. > [@](#): > > Or, we could impose order and peace by sheer brutality Compared to what? How’s that workin’ out for ya? What can we still “impose” on \*anyone \* there anymore? We cannot accomplish anything more than we already are with force or brutality. We don’t have any more force available to apply, and no more ability to get away with brutality. > [@](#): > > It is a wretched choice, but there is no other. Out now. There is another. Face the reality of the various factions’ wishes, assist in completing and formalizing the partition they all want, apply diplomacy on Iran to minimize their meddling in the Shiite country and on Turkey to accept and work with the independent Kurdistan, cut oil contracts with the Sunnis. And get our people out - they can do no more than continue to be targets of attacks, as the majority of Iraqis now support. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2006, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/139 "2006-10-17T00:03:18Z")
[QUOTE=DirkGntly] Check this out: [http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php](http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php) This is from an anti-war site, so I was surprised to find this, but I tend to agree with it’s distrust of the Lancet’s findings, for the same reasons they have… [/QUOTE] Sorry to say I do find their reasons to be lousy logic: > [@](#): > > If these assertions are true, they further imply: > > - incompetence and/or fraud on a truly massive scale by Iraqi officials in hospitals and ministries, on a local, regional and national level, perfectly coordinated from the moment the occupation began; Uh.. There is incompetency already (brought in large part by the breakdown of health care in Iraq) Why does it have to be coordinated? That reason from Iraq Body Count sounds to me like conspiracy begging. > [@](#): > > - bizarre and self-destructive behaviour on the part of all but a small minority of 800,000 injured, mostly non-combatant, Iraqis; Duh! A De facto civil war going on **IS** bizarre and self-destructive behaviour. > [@](#): > > - the utter failure of local or external agencies to notice and respond to a decimation of the adult male population in key urban areas; Hello? Civil war? Death squads running around? I’m afraid Iraqi body count is stuck in “invasion and occupation casualties” (nothing wrong in noticing that their body count is based on published reports, but nevertheless, that is not what the Lancet was checking.) like the administration, it is ignoring other factors in the casualty rates. > [@](#): > > - an abject failure of the media, Iraqi as well as international, to observe that Coalition-caused events of the scale they reported during the three-week invasion in 2003 have been occurring every month for over a year. As I remember from my years in El Salvador: Duh once again, [iraqbodycount.org](http://iraqbodycount.org) is basing their count on the official press, a press that now is constantly in fear for their lives. They have to deal with a conflict that includes foreign powers that are telling them what to publish, and local death squads telling them the same. Ever since Elliot Abrahams and Negroponte (Currently in the Bush cabinet, for shame!) looked the the other way, when uncounted victims were disposed at sea from helicopters and other means by the Central American death squads, I was not surprised that the actual body count would be much higher. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2006, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034/140 "2006-10-17T00:23:54Z")
[QUOTE=DirkGntly] Check this out: [http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php](http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php) This is from an anti-war site, so I was surprised to find this, but I tend to agree with it’s distrust of the Lancet’s findings, for the same reasons they have… [/QUOTE] I don’t know. > [@link](#): > > Therefore it would require about 150 unreported, average-size, violent assaults per day to account for 768 deaths. I heard an interview this morning with a US general. When asked if it were true that coalition forces were attacked on the average of once every 12 minutes, he said he hadn’t seen it broken down that way, but admitted to an attack every hour. 150 attacks per day are about 6 per hour - not too hard to believe considering we are hardly all over the country and a bit of a tougher target than a Shiite or Sunni enemy, especially unarmed ones. The response seems to have a problem believing that attacks would not be reported by the media. What is the state of the Iraqi media? Would there be fear of reprisal when reporting attacks? Being a journalist in Iraq is not the world’s safest occupation. In the US, certainly every attack would be reported, but in Iraq? Look, assaults in small towns show up in the papers, but assaults in big cities rarely do unless there is something special about them. Perhaps the same thing is happening. The point about lack of hospital admissions corresponding to injuries is a bit more telling, but my understanding that Iraqi hospitals have still not recovered. Might some of the injured never make it to hospitals in the outlying provinces? As for morgues, yes in Baghdad, but outside, Saddam knew how to use mass unmarked graves. Are we sure the insurgents aren’t doing the same, especially when the murders are due to kidnappings? I tend to agree with them that Coalition deaths have been overstated. I can believe that some households might have reported deaths from other causes as deaths from Coalition action - I can certainly understand the motivation for this. Most disturbing the response reads: > [@link](#): > > All that has been firmly documented as a result of the Lancet study is that some 300 post-invasion violent deaths occurred among the members of the households interviewed. This information, and the demographic and causative breakdowns presented in the study, are significant additions to the detailed knowledge that is painstakingly being accumulated about the individual victims of this conflict, and the tragedies that have befallen them. These 300 may be added to the roster of some 50,000 others for whom this level of detailed knowledge is available. In some - but still far too few - cases we know the name, ages, occupation, and exact circumstances of death. Information presented at this level of detail is the only way to arrive at once-for-all certainty, in a way that does justice to the victims, honours their memory, and provides the closure that only a full list, or census, can do satisfactorily. But it is wildly improbable that 300 deaths in 1900 households does not imply significantly more deaths in the country as a whole. I haven’t read the Lancet sampling criteria yet - I can believe that the actual number is on the low side of the range, or even lower. But some of this response seems to be that the casualty rate is too high to believe. It would be nice if they were right, but I’m not convinced. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-estimated-600k-iraqis-have-died-in-the-war/376034.md?page=8)