# An example of what can go wrong when restrictions are lifted **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [June 15, 2020, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730 "2020-06-15T23:11:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2020, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/21 "2020-06-16T15:44:40Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Someone on this board predicted 3 weeks ago that we would be in trouble now and the numbers continue to go down. what are your predictions? The “numbers” are **not** going down. Even on the national level, new cases are increasing. In some states (mine, for instance), new cases are setting records. If you take New York (which has done a pretty good job at controlling the spread) out of the equation, the results are even more dramatic - cases are rising everywhere else. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/22 "2020-06-16T16:18:30Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > The “numbers” are **not** going down. > Even on the national level, new cases are increasing. In some states (mine, for instance), new cases are setting records. > If you take New York (which has done a pretty good job at controlling the spread) out of the equation, the results are even more dramatic - cases are rising everywhere else. Exactly. While it’s not happening in every area, in many states, the number of serious cases is spiking. As per[this article in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-recommendations-ignored-as-case-numbers-rise/2020/06/15/0c112bdc-af3a-11ea-8758-bfd1d045525a_story.html): > [@](#): > > Ten states — Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas — hit new highs for hospitalized patients on Sunday, according to data maintained by The Washington Post. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2020, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/23 "2020-06-16T16:19:44Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > The “numbers” are **not** going down. > Even on the national level, new cases are increasing. In some states (mine, for instance), new cases are setting records. > If you take New York (which has done a pretty good job at controlling the spread) out of the equation, the results are even more dramatic - cases are rising everywhere else. Yeah, I don’t know where people get the idea that the numbers are going down. The growth rate of new infections declined and had gotten to a point where it was beginning ‘flatten’ a little, but it seems we’ve probably already reached a low point and that the rate of new infections will gradually increase. A lot of the problem falls on the average American’s lack of patience with restrictions. Some of this is totally understandable: there’s a fear of being locked out of the economy for good - that’s a rational fear. But some of this is just a refusal to have one’s lifestyle interrupted and it’s a middle finger to expertise and authority, which is unfortunately in our grand American tradition. In some ways, it’s we who are a nation of 12 year olds. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/24 "2020-06-17T00:37:32Z")
Arizona set a record high number of new cases today - 2,300+ That’s almost 50% more than the last record high - which was only last Friday. Ugh. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/25 "2020-06-17T02:12:06Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > The “numbers” are **not** going down. > Even on the national level, new cases are increasing. In some states (mine, for instance), new cases are setting records. > If you take New York (which has done a pretty good job at controlling the spread) out of the equation, the results are even more dramatic - cases are rising everywhere else. I’ve kept track of the number of deaths since 3/15. they are absolutely going down. This is the last 2 week rolling 10 day average: date rolling 10 day 6/3/2020 984 6/4/2020 1037 6/5/2020 1081 6/6/2020 999 6/7/2020 914 6/8/2020 851 6/9/2020 859 6/10/2020 894 6/11/2020 910 6/12/2020 867 6/13/2020 839 6/14/2020 768 6/15/2020 689 6/16/2020 704 ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/26 "2020-06-17T02:24:10Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I’ve kept track of the number of deaths since 3/15. > > they are absolutely going down. This is the last 2 week rolling 10 day average: > > date rolling 10 day > 6/3/2020 984 > 6/4/2020 1037 > 6/5/2020 1081 > 6/6/2020 999 > 6/7/2020 914 > 6/8/2020 851 > 6/9/2020 859 > 6/10/2020 894 > 6/11/2020 910 > 6/12/2020 867 > 6/13/2020 839 > 6/14/2020 768 > 6/15/2020 689 > 6/16/2020 704 Could you link to a source for that? (Not that I’m doubting you, but I’d like to see the numbers.) Deaths may be, for the moment, going down, but hospitalizations in a lot of states are rising substantially right now (see my previous post). And, given that, it seems entirely possible (if not probable) that deaths will follow. Does that concern you? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/27 "2020-06-17T02:37:46Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Could you link to a source for that? (Not that I’m doubting you, but I’d like to see the numbers.) > > Deaths may be, for the moment, going down, but hospitalizations in a lot of states are rising substantially right now (see my previous post). And, given that, it seems entirely possible (if not probable) that deaths will follow. Does that concern you? I pull the numbers from [worldometer.](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) daily. the 10 day rolling average is from my spreadsheet. We’ve been told repeatedly to expect a second wave and so far it’s not happening. As for any rise in hospitalizations that has not shown as a state issue currently and appears to be on a more local basis. I follow my own state since it affects me directly and there are fluctuations within the state that have not turned critical or shown any consistent upward pattern. So no, not concerned at this time on a national or state level. We can always tighten social conditions as needed in the area it’s needed. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/28 "2020-06-17T02:50:21Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We’ve been told repeatedly to expect a second wave and so far it’s not happening. We’ve been told repeatedly to expect a second wave in the fall. We’re not even through the first wave yet. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/29 "2020-06-17T03:15:51Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We can always tighten social conditions as needed in the area it’s needed. All I can say is “good luck with that.” There are a lot of people who clearly have decided that either (a) the worst is past, and they can go back to normal, or (b) it’s all a hoax anyway. I think that, in most of the U.S., the genie is out of the bottle now, and attempts to re-institute any restrictions that have already been lifted are going to be met with heavy resistance. Honestly, Magiver, I truly wish that you are right about all of this. However, I feel like that’s unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Helena330](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/helena330/32/531_2.png) [@Helena330](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Helena330)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/30 "2020-06-17T03:27:32Z")
Keep in mind that a lot of the states experiencing spikes aren’t known for their honesty in reporting numbers. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/31 "2020-06-17T03:34:30Z")
> [@Helena330](#): > > Keep in mind that a lot of the states experiencing spikes aren’t known for their honesty in reporting numbers. Are you suggesting that they’re under-reporting (and that the situation is actually even worse than their numbers suggest), or that they’re over-reporting? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/32 "2020-06-17T03:44:59Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > All I can say is “good luck with that.” There are a lot of people who clearly have decided that either (a) the worst is past, and they can go back to normal, or (b) it’s all a hoax anyway. > > I think that, in most of the U.S., the genie is out of the bottle now, and attempts to re-institute any restrictions that have already been lifted are going to be met with heavy resistance. > > Honestly, Magiver, I truly wish that you are right about all of this. However, I feel like that’s unlikely. It’s not a function of being right or wrong. I’m just watching the numbers. Since we can’t shut the entire country down until the last virus is eliminated that leaves us with doing the best we can. If my city sees a huge spike in the numbers then we will revert to tighter controls. but that doesn’t mean every city has to shut down. My state probably has a better than average infrastructure of hospitals and transportation assets to handle hot spots. If there is a second wave in the fall then the falling numbers put us in a good position. A lot more people will have gotten the virus and represent less of a threat. We will have had a half-year’s worth of medical knowledge to treat people and if things go well we will have at least 1 vaccine available. And remember, it’s only a small segment of the population that is seriously vulnerable to the virus. I think we are in a much better position going forward. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/33 "2020-06-17T04:08:07Z")
Sure, _deaths_ are going down…but, they are a lagging indicator. Wait two-three weeks and then come back. And, bring pie. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/34 "2020-06-17T09:16:01Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We’ve been told repeatedly to expect a second wave and so far it’s not happening. “They told us that is was eventually going to snow again, but it’s July and we still haven’t seen any snow!” Wait. Second wave hasn’t happened because it most likely will be in the fall/winter. > [@Magiver](#): > > IIf there is a second wave in the fall then the falling numbers put us in a good position. A lot more people will have gotten the virus and represent less of a threat. We will have had a half-year’s worth of medical knowledge to treat people and if things go well we will have at least 1 vaccine available. There is no way in hell a workable vaccine is going to be available by fall. If we have it by next spring it will be a faster vaccine development than has ever happened before. > [@Magiver](#): > > And remember, it’s only a small segment of the population that is seriously vulnerable to the virus. So… it’s just OK if they’re seriously ill or die? Really? You want to take that position? We can no more determine which young, healthy people will get seriously ill and die from this than we predict which elderly people will be able to recover from this on their own and go on to live another decade. That also ignores that many people who do not get sick enough to be hospitalized have lingering health problems and perhaps some degree of permanent damage. > [@Magiver](#): > > I think we are in a much better position going forward. I don’t. I think some people want the situation to be better so much they’ll tell themselves it is, but we still have a serious pandemic going on here. No, we can’t shut down the entire economy for the 2-3 years this will probably take to play out, but neither should we go back to the way things were 6 months ago. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/35 "2020-06-17T09:27:55Z")
[dupe] ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/36 "2020-06-17T11:53:36Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > “They told us that is was eventually going to snow again, but it’s July and we still haven’t seen any snow!” > > Wait. Second wave hasn’t happened because it most likely will be in the fall/winter. > There is no way in hell a workable vaccine is going to be available by fall. If we have it by next spring it will be a faster vaccine development than has ever happened before. there are currently [160 vaccines under study](https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200610/covid-19-latest-updates) and we have some of them in stage 2 testing right now. One of them goes to stage 3 in July. > [@Broomstick](#): > > So… it’s just OK if they’re seriously ill or die? Really? You want to take that position? Yes. It’s the same position we take every year for the flu. There is no way we can prevent people dying and there is no way we can shut the economy down indefinitely. All we can do is look at the numbers and respond to any local changes that occur. > [@Broomstick](#): > > We can no more determine which young, healthy people will get seriously ill and die from this than we predict which elderly people will be able to recover from this on their own and go on to live another decade. . That’s correct. > [@Broomstick](#): > > That also ignores that many people who do not get sick enough to be hospitalized have lingering health problems and perhaps some degree of permanent damage. Again, that’s correct. What’s your point? Routine screening for various cancers have been delayed because of this. There will be a real cost of lives associated with this delay. > [@Broomstick](#): > > I don’t. I think some people want the situation to be better so much they’ll tell themselves it is, but we still have a serious pandemic going on here. It’s no a function of what is or is not wanted. As I said before I’ve been tracking this since 3/15. Currently the numbers show a steady decline. We’re in a controlled return to work so it’s still considered a serious problem. > [@Broomstick](#): > > No, we can’t shut down the entire economy for the 2-3 years this will probably take to play out, but neither should we go back to the way things were 6 months ago. We’re not going back to the way things were 6 months ago. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/37 "2020-06-17T14:50:02Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Are you suggesting that they’re under-reporting (and that the situation is actually even worse than their numbers suggest), or that they’re over-reporting? Here in Texas, there’s a big lag in a lot of the testing; apparently the state-administered tests are getting results back weeks late, while the private testing is in hours. Plus, there’s still a fair number of hurdles to getting tested- last I had checked, you had to be showing symptoms to get a test, or live somewhere that you needed to be tested, like a nursing home. Even with that, the number of cases and hospitalizations has been steadily creeping up, although deaths don’t seem to be. That could be a consequence of recording/reporting too. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/38 "2020-06-17T15:09:17Z")
One thing that’s a little surprising is that this particular group didn’t use masks as a cosplay opportunity. I would have expected these kinds of fans to have all kinds of masks related to their particular interest. But instead, most of the people aren’t wearing masks and the few masks I see are just generic masks. But it also shows the reality of how much compliance we can expect. He says 20% of the people are wearing masks. So 80% of the people don’t seem to care about preventing infection. That 80% is also why it will be hard to get governments to be able to enforce requirements that limit the spread of the virus. Politicians aren’t going to go against the will of that big of a percentage of their constituents. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/39 "2020-06-17T19:10:44Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We’re not going back to the way things were 6 months ago. A not-insigificant number of people are certainly trying to do so, in spite of the warnings and guidelines from health authorities. It’s not difficult at all to find pictures of crowded social gatherings, like [the infamous pool party at Lake of the Ozarks](https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/us/ozarks-missouri-party/index.html) on Memorial Day weekend. In addition, of course, there have been numerous protest rallies and marches over the past three weeks, in the wake of the murder of George Floyd. Certainly, many of the protesters wore masks, and some were attempting to maintain social distancing. But, even so, large gatherings are a higher risk. And, President Trump is planning a rally in Tulsa this Saturday, and public statements indicate that they are planning for (and hoping for) a full house, at an indoor arena. As per [this NPR article](https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/877778784/health-officials-worry-trumps-tulsa-rally-will-pose-covid-19-risks): > [@](#): > > “We are anticipating a very full rally,” said Erin Perrine, principal deputy communications director for the Trump campaign. “I mean, we’ve received over 1 million ticket requests.” > [@](#): > > “We expect to have, it’s like a record-setting crowd,” Trump said Monday at the White House. “We’ve never had an empty seat, and we certainly won’t in Oklahoma.” While the Trump campaign has indicated that they will be making masks available to attendees, they have refused to make the wearing of masks mandatory at the event. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2020, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730/40 "2020-06-17T21:37:22Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > there are currently [160 vaccines under study](https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200610/covid-19-latest-updates) and we have some of them in stage 2 testing right now. One of them goes to stage 3 in July. Oh, skippy - that’s just testing to see if it’s safe and effective. _At best_ ONE of them starts stage 3 of that process in July… but most of them do not. Most of them are not even at stage 2 at this point. Even after a vaccine gets approved it must be manufactured on a large scale and it takes time to do that. No one has ever developed a vaccine on this timeline, so I very much doubt we’ll get one by spring 2121, much less fall 2020. I’d be happy to be wrong on that an everyone able to a safe and effective vaccine for Christmas, but I’m not planning on it. > [@Magiver](#): > > Yes. It’s the same position we take every year for the flu. There is no way we can prevent people dying and there is no way we can shut the economy down indefinitely. All we can do is look at the numbers and respond to any local changes that occur. A big difference is that covid has between 10 and 30 times the death rate of influenza, aside from that big 1918 case and maybe that forgotten epidemic in 1968. No, we can’t save everyone but we can try to maintain conditions where we can save as many people as possible rather than just throw up our hands, do nothing constructive, and when the hospitals collapse say “oh, well…” and start digging mass graves. There is evidence that the death rate can go up or down based on actions taken on a society-wide basis. We should heed that. > [@Magiver](#): > > Again, that’s correct. What’s your point? Routine screening for various cancers have been delayed because of this. There will be a real cost of lives associated with this delay. There is a real cost of lives associated with hospitals being overwhelmed, patients being laid on sheets on the floors of hallways because there are no more beds, and medical personnel dying not just from the disease but also other falling ill with various levels of problems up to and including suicide brought on by stress and overwork. Again, it’s not either/or. The best course for the maximum number of people to benefit is somewhere in the middle. > [@Magiver](#): > > It’s no a function of what is or is not wanted. As I said before I’ve been tracking this since 3/15. Currently the numbers show a steady decline. There is a decline in SOME states - such as New York, Illinois, and my own state of Indiana. Thirteen other states, though, are spiking new records. Or are you now ignoring “local conditions” where before you said decisions had to be made based on “local conditions”? > [@Magiver](#): > > We’re in a controlled return to work so it’s still considered a serious problem. Maybe by you and me, but sure as hell NOT by the jackholes marching guns all a-bristling on the Michigan State House, or tourists in the Ozarks, or idiots thronging the beaches in Florida. > [@Magiver](#): > > We’re not going back to the way things were 6 months ago. Some people are certainly trying to. Too many. If it was JUST those people putting themselves and themselves only at risk I’d say let 'em - but they aren’t. They’re endangering other people. That should be stopped but I’ve met too many spoiled, self-entitled, selfish brats trying to use money and politics to get what they want and \*\*\*\* anyone else over the past few months to think that’s actually going to happen. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/an-example-of-what-can-go-wrong-when-restrictions-are-lifted/855730.md?page=3)