# Andrew Luck Staying at Stanford
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [January 6, 2011, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651 "2011-01-06T20:23:45Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/1 "2011-01-06T20:23:45Z")
Andrew Luck, the consensus top NFL prospect in college football will not be enterking the NFL draft this year, leaving Carolina fans praying that Jimmy Calusen transforms into an elite QB.
That probably leaves Ryan Mallett as the top pure QB prospect in the draft, with Cam Newton and real wildcard. If the Panthers keep the pick I am guessing they go with AJ Green.
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### Author:  [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/2 "2011-01-06T20:25:21Z")
That surprises me, for several reasons: most notably the fact that there will surely be new restrictions on rookie salaries the year after next, which means Luck is sure to make a LOT less money if he waits another season.
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### Author:  [@Death\_of\_Rats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Death_of_Rats)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/3 "2011-01-06T20:27:18Z")
Projected #1 NFL draft pick Andrew Luck, QB from Stanford has decided to [skip the draft and return for his Junior year to finish his degree.](http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/06/stanfords-lucky-day-qb-to-return-for-another-season/)
How will this affect the draft? Will Carolina go down the list to Jake Locker , Cam Newton or Ryan Mallett? or do they go with a #2 overall guy like A.J. Green?
They need a QB but I do not think anyone else on the list will rate a #1 overall pick. Maybe, they go for Green and hope for one of the three QBs to drop to round 2, but that is doubtful. I think they pull the trigger on either Locker or Mallett and hope for Sam Bradford lightning to strike twice.
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/4 "2011-01-06T20:35:30Z")
[Modding]
Merged threads by **Gangster Octopus** and **Death of Rats**.
[/Modding]
So, Luck is not with the Panthers. I’m not sure this is really a bad thing for them. They have a ton of other needs and they’re not going to contend next year regardless. I think they might as well see what they can get from Clausen and use their top picks to improve some of their other positions. I guess the top pick will be very expensive regardless, but a non-QB might be a bit less crazy. And if they still have QB needs in the future they’ll have a revised draft structure that limits rookie salaries.
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### Author:  [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/5 "2011-01-06T20:37:36Z")
You know, if Luck was secretly worried about being drafted by a loser team like Carolina, he could have pulled an Eli Manning and just told them up front that he would never agree to sign there.
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### Author:  [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/6 "2011-01-06T20:40:19Z")
Being here in the Panthers market I can tell you that for weeks all I’ve heard is LUCK LUCK LUCK LUCK. It’s a huge blow to this franchise. They are not perennially terrible so the #1 overall pick is rare for them. Luck looks to be a franchise QB and they missed out. Clausen may improve, and they do have a bunch of other needs, but a franchise QB would have really energized the fan base, who have been increasingly frustrated with the team and ownership.
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### Author:  [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/7 "2011-01-06T20:40:46Z")
Very surprising, especially considering Harbaugh’s situation. Or maybe Luck knows something we don’t about that.
I agree this is not necessarily bad for Carolina. They’ve got lots of other needs. I would go with AJ Green if I were them. I had hoped he’d be there for the Browns, though.
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### Author:  [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/8 "2011-01-06T20:42:34Z")
> [@MOIDALIZE](#):
>
> You know, if Luck was secretly worried about being drafted by a loser team like Carolina, he could have pulled an Eli Manning and just told them up front that he would never agree to sign there.
They were awful this year, but I wouldn’t call them a “loser team.” They were in the NFC championship game a few years ago and lost the Super Bowl by FG a few years before that.
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### Author:  [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/9 "2011-01-06T20:45:14Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> Andrew Luck, the consensus top NFL prospect in college football will not be enterking the NFL draft this year, leaving Carolina fans praying that Jimmy Calusen transforms into an elite QB.
>
> That probably leaves Ryan Mallett as the top pure QB prospect in the draft, with Cam Newton and real wildcard. If the Panthers keep the pick I am guessing they go with AJ Green.
I believe Blaine Gabbert of Missouri and Jake Locker of Washington are both projected ahead of Mallett and Newton.
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### Author:  [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/10 "2011-01-06T20:48:01Z")
Without a coach or coordinators in place, it’s very difficult to guess what the Panthers will do now. A lot will depend on who they hire.
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### Author:  [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/11 "2011-01-06T20:48:53Z")
> [@Southern\_Yankee](#):
>
> They were awful this year, but I wouldn’t call them a “loser team.” They were in the NFC championship game a few years ago and lost the Super Bowl by FG a few years before that.
They’re looking to cut payroll and they’ll have a new coach. They’re not going to be a good situation for a young QB for the foreseeable future.
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### Author:  [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/12 "2011-01-06T20:52:15Z")
> [@MOIDALIZE](#):
>
> They’re looking to cut payroll and they’ll have a new coach. They’re not going to be a good situation for a young QB for the foreseeable future.
I agree that they won’t be a contender this coming season, but they have some pieces in place to come back fairly quickly. They are way under the cap and Jerry Richardson is not traditionally a cheap owner, despite this year. Once the CBA situation shakes out I don’t think he’ll continue to operate on a shoestring budget. Of course, I could be wrong…
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### Author:  [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/13 "2011-01-06T20:52:54Z")
> [@Southern\_Yankee](#):
>
> Clausen may improve, and they do have a bunch of other needs, but a franchise QB would have really energized the fan base, who have been increasingly frustrated with the team and ownership.
Thing is, though, that “energize the fan base” and “build a good team for the future” are not necessarily the same thing. The fans might have loved the shiny trinket of a top prospect QB, but it could be that the Panthers will be just as good, or better, in the long run without Luck.
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### Author:  [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/14 "2011-01-06T21:46:28Z")
Boy, Mallett looked awfully good in the Sugar Bowl, despite his horrible receivers.
If you believe the Sporting News, Jake Locker might drop out of the 1st round. Their writers inidcate that he may be the most overhyped QB entering a draft since Ryan Leaf. Although, I personally think Jamarcus Russell was at least equally overhyped.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/15 "2011-01-06T22:02:23Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#):
>
> I believe Blaine Gabbert of Missouri and Jake Locker of Washington are both projected ahead of Mallett and Newton.
Kiper has them ranked Luck (1), Gabbert (9), Newton (13), Mallett (17), Locker (25).
Scouts Inc. has Andrew Luck (1), Blaine Gabbert (20), Jake Locker (23), Cam Newton (29), Ryan Mallett (31).
Based on my observations I think Mallett and Gabbert will end up competing for the #1 QB rating with Luck off the board and Locker could fall a long ways into the second round.
ETA: This decision could cost Luck a TON of money. The rookie salary scale is going to be one of the biggest changes in the new CBA and with neither owners or existing players having any stake in keeping that overly inflated theres little reason to think it won’t be decreased substantially. Even if he remains the #1 overall pick in 2012 he might get $20M+ less overall and $10M+ less guaranteed, who knows rookie contracts might end up being limited to 3 or 4 years meaning an even bigger loss. If he falls into the middle of the 1st round it could be catastrophic, and that doesn’t even consider injury.
Stupid, stupid move.
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### Author:  [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/16 "2011-01-06T22:10:36Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Stupid, stupid move.
If money the only thing that matters to you.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/17 "2011-01-06T23:07:02Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> If money the only thing that matters to you.
If he were niggling over a few percentage points I might agree. He may lose a life changing amount of money. That’s not simple greed.
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### Author:  [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2011, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/18 "2011-01-06T23:10:40Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#):
>
> Although, I personally think Jamarcus Russell was at least equally overhyped.
I don’t actually even remember him being all that hyped, until the week of the draft it seemed has was a must take number 1 guy.
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### Author:  [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)
#### Post date: [January 7, 2011, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/19 "2011-01-07T00:01:00Z")
Seems to me that there’s little to no upside in staying, but a lot of downside. Just look at the difference from Jake Locker’s projections last year to now. The same dropoff could easily happen with Luck, especially if there’s upheaval in the coaching staff.
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### Author:  [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)
#### Post date: [January 7, 2011, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/andrew-luck-staying-at-stanford/566651/20 "2011-01-07T00:12:15Z")
> [@mhendo](#):
>
> Thing is, though, that “energize the fan base” and “build a good team for the future” are not necessarily the same thing. The fans might have loved the shiny trinket of a top prospect QB, but it could be that the Panthers will be just as good, or better, in the long run without Luck.
No doubt, but by most scouting reports Luck was a “can’t miss” franchise QB. Are they always right? Of course not.
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