# Another Doomsday scenario. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 10, 2010, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236 "2010-07-10T18:51:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2010, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/1 "2010-07-10T18:51:32Z")
How much credence can we give to this one, Dopers? [How BP Gulf disaster may have triggered a ‘world-killing’ event.](http://www.helium.com/items/1882339-doomsday-how-bp-gulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event) > [@](#): > > Ominous reports are leaking past the BP Gulf salvage operation news blackout that the disaster unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico may be about to reach biblical proportions. > > The bottom line: BP’s Deepwater Horizon drilling operation may have triggered an irreversible, cascading geological Apocalypse that will culminate with the first mass extinction of life on Earth in many millions of years. > > The oil giant drilled down miles into a geologically unstable region and may have set the stage for the eventual premature release of a methane mega-bubble. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2010, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/2 "2010-07-10T19:01:27Z")
Let’s quote the article a bit: > [@](#): > > 251 million years ago a mammoth undersea methane bubble caused massive explosions, poisoned the atmosphere and destroyed more than 96 percent of all life on Earth. [1] Experts agree that what is known as the Permian extinction event was the greatest mass extinction event in the history of the world. Now, notice that these are two distinct sentences. They assert that methane caused death, but don’t provide any source for that information. Then they mention that lots of animals died during a particular time, but don’t actually say that anyone thinks that methane is that cause. > [@](#): > > Northwestern University’s Gregory Ryskin, a bio-chemical engineer, has a theory: The oceans periodically produce massive eruptions of explosive methane gas. He has documented the scientific evidence that such an event was directly responsible for the mass extinctions that occurred 55 million years ago. [4] Apparently we only actually have one person making this claim. > [@](#): > > Many geologists concur What percentage is “many”? 0.1% of all geologists could still be a thousand people. That is “many”, but not significant. Etc. Looking through the Wikipedia page on [the first extinction event referred to in the article](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian_extinction), the methane theory is but one of half a dozen. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/3 "2010-07-11T00:47:31Z")
So we die by farting? ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/4 "2010-07-11T00:52:12Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > So we die by farting? Wasn’t that the premise for a South Park episode? ---
**Author:** ![dogbutler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dogbutler/32/428_2.png) [@dogbutler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dogbutler)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/5 "2010-07-11T01:29:48Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > Wasn’t that the premise for a South Park episode? I thought it was Beavis and Butthead. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/6 "2010-07-11T02:08:31Z")
It’ll either kill us or it won’t. If it doesn’t, there’s nothing to worry about. If it does, there’s nobody to do the worrying. I’m kinda hoping they woke up Godzilla’s Cajun Lizard Bro. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/7 "2010-07-11T02:50:09Z")
[Here’s an article](http://www.mccormick.northwestern.edu/news/archives/313) that suggests this guy has been pushing his methane bubble theory since at least 2007, and it does mention that it’s controversial. Sounds like he’s probably just using the headline of the day to get attention. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/8 "2010-07-11T04:08:00Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Let’s quote the article a bit: > > > [@](#): > > > > 251 million years ago a mammoth undersea methane bubble caused massive explosions, poisoned the atmosphere and destroyed more than 96 percent of all life on Earth. [1] Experts agree that what is known as the Permian extinction event was the greatest mass extinction event in the history of the world. > > Now, notice that these are two distinct sentences. They assert that methane caused death, but don’t provide any source for that information. Then they mention that lots of animals died during a particular time, but don’t actually say that anyone thinks that methane is that cause. Not to mention that things that happened before people began writing stuff down about them don’t count as being “in the history” of the world. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/9 "2010-07-11T04:14:19Z")
> [@](#): > > The warning signs of an impending planetary catastrophe—of such great magnitude that the human mind has difficulty grasping it-would be the appearance of large fissures or rifts splitting open the ocean floor, a rise in the elevation of the seabed, and the massive venting of methane and other gases into the surrounding water. What about dogs and cats living together? Seriously, though, although there is some scientific basis to to the notion that there have been releases of methane from ocean beds in the past, these mainly have to do with the frozen form known as methane hydrates in sediments just below seabed, which has nothing to do with the state of methane gas in the reservoir contributing to current blowout. The author clearly knows next to nothing about the mechanics of such events, much of anything about geology, hydrocarbon reservoirs or even, apparently, basic facts about the _Deepwater Horizon_ blowout itself. The linked article is overflowing with with absurd exaggerations. Here are a few: > [@](#): > > Methane is now streaming through the porous, rocky seabed at an accelerated rate and gushing from the borehole of the first relief well. I presume they are referring to the relief well currently being drilled by the _Development Driller III_. Nothing is gushing from that borehole. If formation fluid were gushing from the well, the well would be blown out, like the first one. Since the DD III apparently has not turned into a ball of fire and sunk in the past few days, I conclude that the above quote is pure bullshit. > [@](#): > > The EPA is on record that Rig #1 is releasing methane, benzene, hydrogen sulfide and other toxic gases. Workers there now wear advanced protection including state-of-the-art, military-issued gas masks. There is nothing called “Rig #1” participating in the relief effort. If they are referring to the _Discoverer Enterprise_ drillship, which is doing most of the fluid recovery from the blown-out well, well duh. Methane, benzene, and hydrogen sulfide are common components of hydrocarbon reservoirs in general. While personnel on board do have to wear respirators in some areas, they are not ‘military issued’ and this is a normal precaution that would have to be taken with any case where large amounts of raw reservoir fluids are being brought to surface and processed. > [@](#): > > Reports, filtering through from oceanologists and salvage workers in the region, state that the upper level strata of the ocean floor is succumbing to greater and greater pressure. That pressure is causing a huge expanse of the seabed-estimated by some as spreading over thousands of square miles surrounding the BP wellhead-to bulge. Some claim the seabed in the region has risen an astounding 30 feet. Someone who has no clue what they are talking about may indeed be making such a ridiculous claim, but so what? A single, seven inch borehole has caused thousands of square miles of seabed to rise thirty feet? What was the magical power of this particular well, rather than any of the other thousands of wells drilled in the reason since the 1960s, to cause such a widespread event? > [@](#): > > The subterranean methane is pressurized at 100,000 pounds psi. According to Matt Simmons, an oil industry expert, the methane pressure at the wellhead has now skyrocketed to a terrifying 40,000 pounds psi. There isn’t a known hydrocarbon reservoir anywhere in the world that is pressured to anywhere near 40,000 psi, much less 100,000 psi. Reservoir pressure prior to the blowout (at approx, 13000 feet below seabed), has been widely reported as around 12000 psi. The highest estimate I’ve seen for pressure at the subsea wellhead during the blowout has been around 8000 psi and at this time is probably considerably less. Even at reservoir depth, 40,000 psi would far exceed the pressure exerted by the rock overburden and thus is simply an impossible condition. Lastly, as far as I can tell, none of the links in the article lead to references supporting any of the wild claims made. The link for Matthew Simmons, for example, simply leads to his Wikipedia entry, which, while it mentions some questionable claims he’s made about the DW Horizon blowout, says nothing about the 40,000/100,000 psi figures. So, absolute shite, from beginning to end. Y’all can safely ignore it. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/10 "2010-07-11T04:16:09Z")
Unless it’s scheduled to erupt in December of 2012, then I can’t give it much credence. ---
**Author:** ![Cyningablod](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9fc29f/32.png) [@Cyningablod](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyningablod)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/11 "2010-07-11T04:21:00Z")
This being **ivan** ’s thread, I’m sure he thinks if it DOES happen, it’ll be an inside job, a la 9/11. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/12 "2010-07-11T20:22:18Z")
> [@](#): > > The subterranean methane is pressurized at 100,000 pounds psi. According to Matt Simmons, an oil industry expert, the methane pressure at the wellhead has now skyrocketed to a terrifying 40,000 pounds psi. What are pounds psi? I can’t think of any meaningful physical quantity that would be measured in square pounds per square inch. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/13 "2010-07-11T20:35:22Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > What are pounds psi? I can’t think of any meaningful physical quantity that would be measured in square pounds per square inch. Well, that just means we’re doomed, squared! ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/14 "2010-07-11T21:25:29Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > A single, seven inch borehole has caused thousands of square miles of seabed to rise thirty feet? What was the magical power of this particular well, rather than any of the other thousands of wells drilled in the reason since the 1960s, to cause such a widespread event? Its the straw that tickled Cthulu’s back. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/15 "2010-07-11T21:38:25Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > What are pounds psi? I can’t think of any meaningful physical quantity that would be measured in square pounds per square inch. What if you had a giant pile of pound cakes? I think the units of pressure under the bottom of that pile would work out. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2010, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-doomsday-scenario/546236/16 "2010-07-11T22:45:59Z")
> [@billfish678](#): > > What if you had a giant pile of pound cakes? I think the units of pressure under the bottom of that pile would work out. Just don’t eat too much cake, or it’s girdles all the way down.