# Another Indonesian Quake, Tsunami to follow? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [March 28, 2005, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623 "2005-03-28T16:57:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/1 "2005-03-28T16:57:04Z")
N.O.A.A. and the U.S.G.S are reporting another quake, magintude 8.0 to 8.2 on the same fault as that which caused the December 26th tsunami. If you live within 1000 kilometers of the area and are on the coast, you might be advised to move inland or watch this story unfold closely. Any friends or family you know in the area should probably be contacted as well. Sorry I don’t know any more, major stations are starting to pick this up now so you can probably get more up to the minute info from CNN, etc. Be well. ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/2 "2005-03-28T17:21:26Z")
[Cnn:](http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/03/28/indonesia.quake/index.html)" “There is a potential for some wave activity,” said Julie Martinez, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Earthquake Information Center, in Golden, Colorado. Thailand issued a warning that the quake could bring a tsunami to its southern provinces. The warning, which was carried on national television, cautioned people in the six provinces to be careful and vigilant, but did not order evacuations. The quake occurred at 11:09 a.m. ET (1609 GMT), and is considered a “great” earthquake, the largest of seven grades." [USGS Earthquake Hazards Program](http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/) ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/3 "2005-03-28T17:24:32Z")
> [@](#): > > A great earthquake occurred at 16:09:37 (UTC) on Monday, March 28, 2005. The magnitude 8.2 event has been located in NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.) [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/usweax.htm](http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/usweax.htm) ---
**Author:** ![Kythereia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e8c25b/32.png) [@Kythereia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kythereia)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/4 "2005-03-28T17:31:08Z")
What in the name of flying monkeys is going _on_ over there? ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/5 "2005-03-28T17:32:52Z")
Wasn’t it only a matter of minutes before the first waves hit Sumatra? ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/6 "2005-03-28T17:42:26Z")
Previously? Yes, waves can travel at 500 mph, slowing and growing as they encounter shallower water. Here’s a report from the [Pacific Tsunami Warning Center](http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/wmsg), which isn’t responsible for (out of jurisdiction and reach) S.E. Asia but does it’s best to help make them aware… “WARNING… THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A WIDELY DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI IN THE OCEAN OR SEAS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE. AUTHORITIES IN THOSE REGIONS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION. THIS ACTION SHOULD INCLUDE EVACUATION OF COASTS WITHIN A THOUSAND KILOMETERS OF THE EPICENTER AND CLOSE MONITORING TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR EVACUATION FURTHER AWAY.” ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/7 "2005-03-28T17:52:00Z")
Quakes are reported using a log scale. A magnitude 9 releases 10 times the energy of an 8, which is 10 times more energetic than a 7. This latest one release only 10% of the energy released back in December. Likely any resulting tsunamis will be less energetic than the killer back in then. I hope. ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/8 "2005-03-28T17:59:46Z")
Yes, Richter represents a measurement of amplitude and the driving force behind a tsunami would be volume of displacement which is likely but not guaranteed to be a somewhat linear function of that amplitude. It should be only a fraction of the severity if it happens at all but, as was mentioned during the previous episode, these are very difficult to predict and safe rather than sorry isn’t an unwise course to follow. Japan puts the mag at 8.5. ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/9 "2005-03-28T18:11:39Z")
Here’s [_Geotimes_](http://www.geotimes.org/current/WebExtra032805.html) coverage of an article that appeared in _Nature_ just 11 days ago warning of the continued risk of another large quake in the area. A very interesting read on the mechanics and scale involved. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/10 "2005-03-28T19:40:13Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > Quakes are reported using a log scale. A magnitude 9 releases 10 times the energy of an 8, which is 10 times more energetic than a 7. This latest one release only 10% of the energy released back in December. Likely any resulting tsunamis will be less energetic than the killer back in then. I think the quake from last year ended up being a 9.3. And it’s now being reported that today’s was an 8.7, so it’s more like 1/6th of the energy. ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2005, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/11 "2005-03-28T19:59:36Z")
Apparently 50 people have died on the island of Nias, near the epicenter, but only a small wave was generated by the quake[reports CNN.](http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/03/28/indonesia.quake/index.html) > [@](#): > > The U.S. Geological Survey reported that an instrument near the Cocos Islands recorded the passing wave, but the magnitude of the “small” tsunami was not clear. > > The agency said no major tsunami has been observed near epicenter of the earthquake which was upgraded from a magnitude of 8.2 to 8.7. An aftershock measuring 6.0 struck 30 minutes after the initial quake. > > Scientists say the threat of a tsunami striking Indonesia and Thailand may have passed because a wave like the one that hit the region on December 26 would have reached those countries almost immediately. Monday’s quake struck at 11:09 a.m. ET (1609 GMT). > > However, a damaging tsunami is still possible and should be “presumed,” said Robert Cessaro of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. The quake may have sent its energy further to the south than last year’s quake, which measured above 9 and ruptured to the north, he said. > > “So all that pressure to the north would have been relieved” by that quake, said Cessaro. "We think this event probably ruptured to the south, with the beam of energy probably propagated to the south toward Mauritius and the Rodrigues. Regions near the “massive” quake have experienced up to 2 minutes of gentle shaking and rocking which caused widespread panic, but a wave of appreciable size would of course have passed by now. It was bad but, as we’ve seen, it could have been so, so much worse. ---
**Author:** ![Phnord\_Prephect](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/df705f/32.png) [@Phnord\_Prephect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phnord_Prephect)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2005, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/12 "2005-03-29T01:41:56Z")
> [@Kythereia](#): > > What in the name of flying monkeys is going _on_ over there? I couldn’t have said it better myself. Look at this: [http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic\_Data/telemetry\_data/map\_sta\_eq.shtml](http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/telemetry_data/map_sta_eq.shtml) Seventeen earthquakes in the past 24 hours as of this posting, most of which were right there, and most of which were 5.0 or higher. I’m no geologist, but… uh… isn’t this just a bit unusual? Any reports from the area? ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2005, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/another-indonesian-quake-tsunami-to-follow/296623/13 "2005-03-29T14:29:12Z")
Scientists believe that the 12/26 quake relieved stress in one area but may have actually loaded up/ increased the stress in another, that which gave yesterday. What we’ve seen since are a large number of aftershocks, two of which were 6 or above. If there is a positive to be seen in all this it’s that some lessons were learned from the previous disaster. The number of agencies to be contacted by the Pacific Tsunami W.C. in the event of a large quake has increased substantially to about 40,000. The affected agencies apparently were quick to spread news of the warning to their respective inhabitants with 3 or 4 island governments quickly issuing warnings. Villagers themselves were quick to react too, many of whom headed for higher ground as soon as they felt the shock. Sadly, the shock still has the potential to cause massive destruction to buildings and, therefore, people with little to no warning. The search for an accurate way to predict quakes is intense but what subtle clues that might be indicative in one regime aren’t necessarily appropriate in another. Nias casualties now apparently number in the hundreds, with lesser but still substantial numbers coming in from Simeulue Island. The 8.7 quake apparently released about [half](http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/03/28/quake.tsunami/index.html) the energy of the 9.0 of three months prior.