Another study showing vaccines dont cause autism

[DSeid]

Just a small note - in truth the number of antigens - the bits of the vaccines that the immune system is responding to - in current ten vaccines is a small fraction of what was in just one vaccine years ago and a much smaller fraction yet of what you body is exposed to every day just by going to the office and touching a keyboard. Advances in the science have allowed vaccine makers to determine the very few markers that the body need to respond to in order to gain protection - a long way from the days of taking whole cells and essentially just blenderizing them. The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) has a good explanation of this.

… one would predict that if 11 vaccines were given to infants at one time, then about 0.1 percent of the immune system would be “used up.”

However, because B cells and other lymphocytes are constantly replenished, a vaccine never really “uses up” a fraction of the immune system. For example, the immune system has the ability to replenish about 2 billion lymphocytes each day. This replacement activity illustrates the enormous capacity of the immune system to generate lymphocytes as needed.

Parents may also take comfort in knowing that children are exposed to fewer immunologic components (like proteins and sugars [polysaccharides]) in vaccines today than in the past. The table below summarizes the number of proteins and polysaccharides contained in routinely recommended vaccines administered over the past 100 years. Although we now give children more vaccines, the actual number of immunologic components in vaccines has declined. Whereas previously one vaccine, smallpox, contained about 200 proteins, now the 11 routinely recommended vaccines contain fewer than 130 immunologic components (i.e., proteins or polysaccharides).

[Askance]

@foolsguinea

… giving a child ten at once has a high likelihood of overtaxing a young immune system, causing high fever.

What are you saying that “high” likelihood is? And on what do you base this claim?

[foolsguinea]

OK, I have no data. But the 2nd or 3rd worst physical feeling I’ve had in my life was my reaction to a typhoid fever vaccine c. 1980.

Reactions are idiosyncratic. You’re injecting kids with something that’s supposed to fire up the immune system, & you’re shocked they run fever? You do ten at once, I predict a small minority will run nigh-fatal fever, & I suspect some tiny subset of that will suffer permanent neurological effects. I want to see a study on this hypothesis.

[Mangetout]

Clearly more studies are needed, until we manage to get the result everybody wants. That is how science works isn’t it?

[foolsguinea]

Look, it’s all well & good to say, “There is no statistical correlation,” but something is going on. I really hope it’s something simple like a too-low estimate of necessary vitamin D levels so we can get off the vaccination scare. But in the absence of a real answer, people are going to connect the dots: Vaccine -> fever -> autism is a repeated anecdote.

[Mangetout]

@foolsguinea

Look, it’s all well & good to say, “There is no statistical correlation,” but something is going on.

I thought it was the case that the studies abundantly demonstrated that no, nothing is actually going on.

I really hope it’s something simple like a too-low estimate of necessary vitamin D levels so we can get off the vaccination scare. But in the absence of a real answer, people are going to connect the dots: Vaccine -> fever -> autism is a repeated anecdote.

I don’t see any way around that - people are always going to connect dots - that people observe a correlation in individual cases does not necessarily mean there is any causal link.

[Indistinguishable]

@foolsguinea

Look, it’s all well & good to say, “There is no statistical correlation,” but something is going on. I really hope it’s something simple like a too-low estimate of necessary vitamin D levels so we can get off the vaccination scare. But in the absence of a real answer, people are going to connect the dots: Vaccine -> fever -> autism is a repeated anecdote.

How often repeated is it? Often enough to show up as statistical correlation? Or just often enough to exist? Because the latter means nothing: by random chance, all kinds of situations leading to memorable anecdotes will exist, independently of causal connection; that’s precisely why the warning exists against “post hoc ergo propter hoc” reasoning.

[RyJae]

@foolsguinea

I don’t think a vaccine causes autism. And I know what a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy is.

That said: While one vaccine should not generally cause ill effects, giving a child ten at once has a high likelihood of overtaxing a young immune system, causing high fever. I could see that causing a neurological problem in a very small minority of cases. I’m don’t think insisting nothing’s there is good enough for parents who’ve seen an apparent connection.

The studies from Denmark
http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/booth/Vaccines/MMRDen.html show absolutely no difference from those that are not vaccinated and those that are.

And to cry a little bit I just turned on the TV left over from last nights Obama interview and the anchor was “let me get this correct the government just paid out for vaccine causing autism” DAMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM thanks FoxNews anchor You went into more detail and your guest explained it but antivaxxors heard all they needed too.

[Jackmannii]

@foolsguinea

But in the absence of a real answer, people are going to connect the dots

This sort of “reasoning” crops up frequently among antivaxers.

“You tell us there’s no connection between vaccination and autism. But you don’t know exactly what causes autism - so we’re free to ‘connect the dots’.”

A conclusion based on solid evidence that something is not responsible for a phenomenon, is not diminished by the fact that the phenomenon’s actual cause(s) have not been fully explained.

Seems to me that kids get fevers a lot when growing up, from all the non-vaccine antigens they’re repeatedly exposed to. Yet somehow the vaccine antigens, which make up a tiny proportion of total childhood exposure and which uncommonly cause fevers, are incomparably worse than those the kid gets exposed to “naturally”.

The logic escapes me.

[LavenderBlue]

Most children are still getting vaccinated thankfully:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/washington/05vaccine.html?ei=5070

A record 77.4 percent of children in this age group received the full recommended series of vaccinations, the centers said.

Ninety percent of children got all but one of the six individual vaccines in the series, it said.

The one exception was the four doses of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis or whooping cough vaccine, received by 84.5 percent of toddlers, the centers said.

The report, based on data on 17,017 children, found that less than 1 percent were given no vaccines.

[Keweenaw]

It’s interesting that the study found this to be true-

"There were no links found between the timing of the vaccine, which typically is first given when children are 12- to 15- months old, and the onset of autism, or vaccination and the bowel ailments. "

When there seem to be so many anecdotal claims of symptoms developing shortly after a vaccination series in young children.

[RyJae]

@Keweenaw

It’s interesting that the study found this to be true-

"There were no links found between the timing of the vaccine, which typically is first given when children are 12- to 15- months old, and the onset of autism, or vaccination and the bowel ailments. "

When there seem to be so many anecdotal claims of symptoms developing shortly after a vaccination series in young children.

That is just because the age of regression coincides with some vaccine schedules. Many other parents I know never had any regression in there child. The child was born autistic. Jaelyn on the other hand was talking, and passing or meeting all her milestones then regressed.

Autism spectrum

[Askance]

@foolsguinea

OK, I have no data. But the 2nd or 3rd worst physical feeling I’ve had in my life was my reaction to a typhoid fever vaccine c. 1980.

Oooh, look, a baby anecdote! How cute!

Reactions are idiosyncratic. You’re injecting kids with something that’s supposed to fire up the immune system, & you’re shocked they run fever?

No. There’s nothing wrong with a fever.

You do ten at once, I predict a small minority will run nigh-fatal fever, & I suspect some tiny subset of that will suffer permanent neurological effects.

On what basis?

I want to see a study on this hypothesis.

Well, it’s your hypothesis. You do it. I suspect there’s a reason why actual qualified researchers haven’t done it; there’s no reason to believe there would be such a link. You prove it, there’s a Nobel in it for you.

[Mr.Excellent]

@Askance

No. There’s nothing wrong with a fever.

I like most of what you said, but this isn’t entirely right. From our friends at NIH:

Many parents fear that fevers will cause brain damage. Brain damage from a fever generally will not occur unless the fever is over 107.6°F (42°C). Many parents also fear that untreated fevers will keep going higher and higher. Untreated fevers caused by infection will seldom go over 105°F unless the child is overdressed or trapped in a hot place.