Antarctica gaining ice cover?

[Squink]

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year

Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 °C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive.

[Ludovic]

Yeah, just look at the picture on that second link: the smokestacks are all emitting 200 foot licks of white hot flame! How much more evidence do you need?

It’s the sun? nevermind

[Jophiel]

Here’s an abstract from the June 2007 Journal of Climate (“Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice under Warming Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions.”) which I dug up with my college’s journal search engine.

Estimates of sea ice extent based on satellite observations show an increasing Antarctic sea ice cover from 1979 to 2004 even though in situ observations show a prevailing warming trend in both the atmosphere and the ocean. This riddle is explored here using a global multicategory thickness and enthalpy distribution sea ice model coupled to an ocean model. Forced by the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, the model simulates an increase of 0.20 × 10^12 m^3 yr^-1 (1.0% yr^-1) in total Antarctic sea ice volume and 0.084 × 10^12 m^2 yr^-1 (0.6% yr^-1) in sea ice extent from 1979 to 2004 when the satellite observations show an increase of 0.027 × 10^12 m^2 yr^-1 (0.2% yr^-1) in sea ice extent during the same period. The model shows that an increase in surface air temperature and downward longwave radiation results in an increase in the upper-ocean temperature and a decrease in sea ice growth, leading to a decrease in salt rejection from ice, in the upper-ocean salinity, and in the upper-ocean density. The reduced salt rejection and upper-ocean density and the enhanced thermohaline stratification tend to suppress convective overturning, leading to a decrease in the upward ocean heat transport and the ocean heat flux available to melt sea ice. The ice melting from ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass. This mechanism is the main reason why the Antarctic sea ice has increased in spite of warming conditions both above and below during the period 1979–2004 and the extended period 1948–2004.

[Turble]

@Colibri

[Moderating]

I don’t think this thread really needs to be sidetracked into a discussion of the psychology of belief. If you have something factual to add regarding Antarctic Ice, go ahead.

@Kyla

Hi guys.

There do seem to be a lot of people claiming that global warming isn’t happening …

Was this guy full of it, or what?

I respectfully suggest to your modship that the original question(s) related at least as much to confusion about who or what to believe as they did to Antarctic ice. I am finding the thread to be very interesting in its current form … but I ain’t a’gonna push it … particularly since Pedant is so nicely expounding on my thoughts on the matter.

[Chief_Pedant]

@Kyla

Hi guys.

As I have mentioned (possibly ad nauseum), I am a grad student in public policy and every year my school has an Integrated Policy Exercise, a sort of policy LARP. This year we had a three day mock climate change conference. We had loads of speakers, including a representative from the UN and Bush’s senior climate change representative, come talk to us. (Reputable people, is the point.) One of the speakers - I think it was a corporate representative - told us that he’d heard on the radio that morning (this was between January 3-5) that Antarctica was gaining ice cover. We were forbidden from using computers while guests were speaking, or that statement would have sent a hundred people off to Google.

I forgot about that until just now, but after googling a bit, I have no idea what this dude was talking about. There do seem to be a lot of people claiming that global warming isn’t happening and Antarctica has more ice now than its ever had in recorded history, but all of the URLs are things like climatechangeskeptic.com or whatever.

Was this guy full of it, or what?

Perhaps he was referring to some old news (2002) published in Science re the mass of the WAIS. This is only one (of three, I think?) antarctic land ice masses. Note that when you hear folks talking about the Polar Ice you have to pay attention to concepts such as sea v land ice, volume v surface area, and changes considered part of underlying non-climate processes (say, a subglacial volcano) v those felt secondary to climate change. All of which gives both sides in the AGW debate plenty of ammo for snippets to add to the cacophony.

Colibri, I shall try to behave myself with respect to editorializing in GQ why we believe stuff. In penance for my posts above I am just trying to give the OP at least one specific link.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/295/5554/476?andorexacttitleabs=and&tdate=%2F%2F&HITS=20&sortspec=relevance&hits=20&fdate=%2F%2F&author1=Joughin&andorexacttitle=or&maxtoshow=&andorexactfulltext=and&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT&searchid=1&RESULTFORMAT=

[Colibri]

@Turble

I respectfully suggest to your modship that the original question(s) related at least as much to confusion about who or what to believe as they did to Antarctic ice. I am finding the thread to be very interesting in its current form … but I ain’t a’gonna push it … particularly since Pedant is so nicely expounding on my thoughts on the matter.

It seemed to me that the OP was asking what the facts of the matter were, more than anything else.

@Chief_Pedant

Colibri, I shall try to behave myself with respect to editorializing in GQ why we believe stuff.

It’s fine with me if both of you wish to discuss other aspects of the issue. I just suggest that you start a thread in Great Debates about it.

I would just like to occasionally have a thread in GQ about global warming that I don’t end up having to move to GD.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

[Kimstu]

@Chief Pedant

Perhaps he was referring to some old news (2002) published in Science re the mass of the WAIS.

Possibly, or perhaps he confused the Antarctic ice sheet with the Greenland ice sheet, which in some parts is gaining thickness due to increased precipitation.

@Chief Pedant

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten...&RESULTFORMAT=

Again, though, this wouldn’t really support the reported claim in the OP that Antarctica is gaining ice cover. It reports that one part of one ice sheet in Antarctica is gaining mass rather than losing it, due to mechanisms which might be related to long-term geological cycles or might instead be shorter-term fluctuations, and notes that other parts of the same ice sheet are losing mass.

This letter in Nature comments on these conclusions, arguing for the likelihood of short-term fluctuations.

I’m inclined to think that the speaker, especially if he wasn’t a climate scientist, was thinking of the growing sea ice and just mixed up “sea ice” and “ice cover”.

[brazil84]

@Kyla

Hi guys.

As I have mentioned (possibly ad nauseum), I am a grad student in public policy and every year my school has an Integrated Policy Exercise, a sort of policy LARP. This year we had a three day mock climate change conference. We had loads of speakers, including a representative from the UN and Bush’s senior climate change representative, come talk to us. (Reputable people, is the point.) One of the speakers - I think it was a corporate representative - told us that he’d heard on the radio that morning (this was between January 3-5) that Antarctica was gaining ice cover. We were forbidden from using computers while guests were speaking, or that statement would have sent a hundred people off to Google.

I forgot about that until just now, but after googling a bit, I have no idea what this dude was talking about. There do seem to be a lot of people claiming that global warming isn’t happening and Antarctica has more ice now than its ever had in recorded history, but all of the URLs are things like climatechangeskeptic.com or whatever.

Was this guy full of it, or what?

Here is a graph which purports to show Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice area over time. It would appear to indicate that levels recently hit a record high. The graph has been floating around the internet for a while, and as far as I know, it has not been rebutted.

is “Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice” the same thing as “Antarctic Ice Cover”? Quite possibly not, but you see the point.

Anyway, I don’t want to stray to far into debate territory here, but it seems to me the question you should be asking is not necessarily “Is antarctic ice cover growing.” Why? Because Antarctica is very cold, and an increase in ice cover is not necessarily inconsistent with the hypothesis commonly referred to as “Anthropogenic Global Warming,”

The better questions to ask are (1) what does the hypothesis predict to happen (or not happen) in Antarctica; and (2) what actually is or isn’t happening?

[Kimstu]

@brazil84

is “Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice” the same thing as “Antarctice Ice Cover”? Probably not

Definitely not, as several posts above have pointed out. However, as previously noted, it’s perfectly possible that the speaker mentioned by the OP got the two mixed up.

[Kimstu]

Post-edit-window note: Whoops, I quoted brazil84’s “Probably not” before noticing that he had edited it to “Quite possibly not”, so my quote refers to the earlier recension of his post.